786
FXUS63 KGID 092123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dangerous fire weather
  LIKELY Monday afternoon. The existing Fire Weather Watch has
  been converted to a Red Flag Warning for noon-8PM Monday.

- Dry conditions continue through Thursday, with temperatures
  taking a brief dip into the 50s/lower 60s for Tuesday, before
  returning back into the 60s on Wednesday and 70s on Thursday.

- Another round of fire weather concerns could accompany the
  warmer temperatures and strengthening return flow on Thursday.

- An anomalously deep/strong storm system is forecast to move
  across the Plains late in the week and into next weekend.
  Multiple weather hazards will accompany this system, but
  exactly which ones, if any, and their impact to our specific
  forecast area remains uncertain, owing to differences in
  timing and track of the main low pressure center. This system
  bears close monitoring over the coming days!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

It`s been a fantastic early March Sunday weather-wise across the
region with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures in the 60s.
W/SW winds have gusted near 20 MPH, at times, but by early March
standards, even this is pretty nice. Unfortunately, the modest
winds will incr and bec breezy/borderline windy for many areas
by Monday afternoon. The increased mixing will help boost temps
even warmer into the 70s and perhaps lower 80s, but it will also
lead to dangerous fire weather for most of south central
Nebraska. Models remain consistent that a pocket of lighter
winds will persist S/SW of the Tri-Cities, which could limit the
fire weather concerns for these areas somewhat. Please see the
Fire Weather and Climate sections below for more details on the
conversion of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning,
along with the potentially record-breaking high temperature for
Hastings.

Dry conditions will persist through mid week as some split-flow
develops and keeps the primary active weather well N and well S
of the area. Temperatures will take a brief dip behind a cold
front for Tuesday, but highs should still manage the 50s to
lower 60s. Widespread 60s return for Wednesday, and the best
part is that the mild temps will come with only very light
winds! As such, would classify Wednesday as the pick day of the
week for outdoor activities. Even warmer 70s make a comeback
for Thursday, but look to be accompanied by strengthening Srly
flow and gusts of at least 25 MPH. Moisture return will be
limited, initially, so this will be another time frame to watch
for possible fire weather concerns.

Focus then turns to what appears could be a major storm system
for a large portion of the middle CONUS late week and into the
weekend. Will start off by saying that both deterministic and
ensemble guidance remains fairly consistent and in decent
agreement that whatever comes out of the Rockies late Thu into
Fri will quickly become anomalously deep (perhaps "bomb
cyclone" territory), and bottom out around -3 to -4 (or lower)
standard deviations below normal for surface pressure. This is
essentially at the bottom of the model (NAEFS) climate
percentile. Undoubtedly, a system this deep will cause a
plethora of weather hazards, some of which could be significant,
including very strong synoptic winds, severe convection, and
wintry weather. However, where exactly these hazards setup in
relation to our specific forecast area remains uncertain due to
differences in timing and low track. Would appear the greatest
severe threat will focus E of the area as the brunt of Gulf
warmth/moisture gets shunted E of the MO River, and the greatest
surge of dry air and blowing dust/fire weather concerns on very
strong SW surface winds (50-60+ MPH) could remain just to our
S/SE across central into eastern KS. Given the latest track
consensus, could envision a scenario where our primary impact
comes from stiff NW winds and perhaps some rain changing to snow
on the backside of the system sometime Fri night into Sat AM.
This could be similar to our recent system in that strong NW
winds (40-50+ MPH) combine with falling snow and temps to
produce hazard travel conditions (slick roads, poor visibility),
but not really a lot of snow in terms of amounts.

Would be pretty remarkable if we get through this system
without any MAJOR impacts, given the impressive depth/strength
on latest model runs...which is kind of the way the EC and many
ensembles look at this time. HOWEVER, it`s important to note
that even subtle changes in track, which are still very
possible, if not likely, could shift the dry air/fire concerns
N, or the snow and potential blizzard conditions further S and
be of greater impact than currently modeled. Also, any slowing
of the system - which is NOT uncommon with such deep systems -
could bring the severe threat further W into at least our far E
zones. This system certainly bears watching over the coming
days, esp. for anyone who has spring break travel plans as the
impacts could be wide-reaching.

Temperatures are a major question mark Friday, and even to some
degree Saturday, given the aforementioned uncertainties. Temps
should begin to moderate towards days 7-8.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with little to no cloud cover. Breezy
Wrly winds this aftn, gusting up to 20kt, will quickly decr this
eve and remain 4-8kt overnight out of the W/SW. Winds will incr
and bec breezy once again Mon towards late AM and continue into
the aftn. Confidence: High.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Elevated to borderline near-critical conditions will persist
through late this afternoon. While RHs are right around the
critical criteria of 20%, winds have been a limiting factor,
with most spots remaining around 20 MPH, or less.

Much greater fire weather concerns are likely for Monday.
Unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with deeper mixing
heights, fairly uniform Wrly, downsloping flow within the mixed
layer, full sunshine, and dry/bare ground are all typical
ingredients for a dangerous early spring fire weather day in
these parts. Latest short-term model consensus calls for very
low RHs in the low to mid teens, combined with sustained W/WSW
winds 15-20 MPH and gusts 25-30 MPH for a good portion of our
south central Nebraska counties. Wind may be more of a limiting
factor to dangerous fire weather for S/SW zones, as nearly all
guidance keeps winds mostly under 20 MPH, even for gusts.
Converted the existing Fire Weather Watch over to a Red Flag
Warning, and as always, will need to monitor the edges for
trends and possible expansion, esp Jewell and Mitchell Counties
which COULD catch the fringes of the stronger SWrly flow that
will focus moreso across the mid to lower MO River Valley.

Fire weather concerns may increase once again later on in the
week associated with strengthening low level flow ahead of a
potent storm system. Details on timing and track of the low
remain uncertain, however, which precludes greater confidence on
projected wind speeds and humidity at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The record high temperature for Monday for Hastings is in
jeopardy. The current forecast is for a high of 78 degrees,
which would TIE the record set in 1936 and 1967. The record
high temperature for Grand Island is 84 degrees and appears
safer at this time, with the latest forecast calling for a high
near 80 degrees.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-085>087.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Thies
CLIMATE...Thies