769
FXUS63 KGID 122342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon.
  Winds turn to the northwest with occasional gusts around 30
  MPH.

- A few light showers are possible (15-20% chance) late tonight
  into early Monday morning. Then mostly dry

- Most of the daytime hours are dry on Monday, but coverage of
  rain showers increase during the evening. Periods of rain
  continue Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Warmer on Wednesday/Thursday with spotty/low rain chances.

- Another cooldown and chance for rain Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

As of 330pm, the cold front roughly stretches from Hill city to
Hastings to Columbus. This will continue to push southeastward
through the evening. A few showers may develop along this front
this evening, but this activity should remain largely to our
southeast. Northwest to north winds continue into the evening,
gradually tapering off past sunset. Later tonight, CAMs hint
that a few more light showers. With relatively dry air in the
low levels, most locations will just see sprinkles...if
anything.

Monday will be noticably cooler thanks to the post-frontal
airmass and increasing cloud cover. A few spotty showers cannot
be ruled out during the daytime, but most areas will stay dry.
Better chances (40-60%) for rain return Monday evening into
Tuesday morning as moisture and upper level forcing arrive from
the SW.

Scattered rain showers are expected to continue past sunrise on
Tuesday, but there are some models (HRRR) that show these
moving out a bit quicker. Regardless, drier conditions arrive
from SW to northeast during the late morning and afternoon. As a
result, southern areas may return to the 70s...but areas of
northern Nebraska may struggle to reach 50 degrees.

Tuesday night through the most of Thursday is expected to be a
drier period, although the chance for rain is not zero.
Continued southwesterly flow aloft...with a few weak
perturbations could result in a few isolated showers.
Temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday bounce back into the 70s and
even low 80s.

A deep upper low then pushes a frontal system into the area late
Thursday, bringing us a more organized chance for rain Thursday
evening into Friday morning. Cooler air behind this front could
result in the first frost of the season for some areas next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty
northerly winds will weaken overnight and become northeasterly.
Winds will continue to become more easterly through the day on
Monday. There is a chance of sprinkles/light rain showers
tonight and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Schuldt