338
FXUS63 KGID 192130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
430 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s
  through Friday.

- Widespread rain/t-storms this weekend, especially Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts have been
  lowered some from previous forecast, but still appreciable,
  model QPF average now 0.75 northwest to 1.75 southeast.

- Mainly dry next week or just a few slight (20%) chances for
  rain. The big story next week will be the cooler fall like
  temperatures (Highs 65-75, lows 40s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Tonight through Friday...

Winds will become nearly calm tonight as a surface high rests over
our forecast area. Clear skies initially this evening will give way
to increasing high clouds by late tonight into Friday ahead of the
strong upper level low swinging through the desert southwest. Friday
will remain warm (mid to upper 80s) with return southerly flow as
the surface high slides east and we see pressure falls across the
high plains ahead of the next upper trough. Currently believe that
any precipitation chance should hold off until after midnight Friday
night and then favor our southeastern zones.

Weekend Rain Still On Track But Amounts Have Come Down Some...

The strong upper low is projected to track northeast into Colorado
on Saturday and we expect increasing showers and thunderstorms out
ahead of this system especially by late afternoon into the evening
hours. However, forecast models are backing off of some of the higher
2 plus inch rainfall amounts from a few days ago. The 9/19 12Z ECMWF
ensemble average precipitation amount came in lower for the second
day in a row now indicating on average 0.75 inches across our northwestern
zones to 1.75 inches across our southeastern zones. We will probably
have some locations that get less than a half inch out of this
system. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs both came in with lower precipitation
amounts than yesterday and last night. At this point it seems like
most areas from the Tri- Cities and locations to the south and east
are still in good shape to pick up weekend total rainfall amounts
of 0.75 to 1.5 inches with some locally higher amounts over 2 inches
still possible. Locations northwest of the Tri-- Cities now
seem like they will be a bit lower. Am not expecting severe
weather this time as instability will be lacking.

Timing of the weekend rainfall favors the Saturday late afternoon
and evening hours through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Saturday should still be a pretty warm day for most locations
ranging from the mid 70s northwest of the Tri-Cities to the 80s
from Hastings and Grand Island east and south. However, it will
be a cool rain on Sunday with our expected highs now being
lowered into the mid 50s in the Tri-Cities to maybe around 60
over north central Kansas.

Monday through Thursday...

The upper low will pass off to our east allowing for subsidence and
drier conditions. We will also be fore fall like with highs generally
in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clear to mostly clear skies throughout the TAF valid period. We
could see a few high clouds working into the region Friday
morning. Northwest winds could be a bit breezy early this
afternoon, but generally under 20 kts. The wind will become
light and variable around sunset and then become a light
southeasterly wind after sunrise Friday morning. Very quiet
aviation weather period expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely