193
FXUS63 KGID 032313
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms tonight approaching
  from the northwest. The best chances will fall between
  7-11PM, though a few storms may transition into lingering
  showers that stick around in a few areas Monday morning.

- Most of these storms should be sub-severe or in the process of weakening
  by the time they approach. A marginal severe weather risk is
  in place for areas mainly along and east of highway 281.

- Temperatures will be on the rise through Friday, staring in
  the low to mid 80s Monday and reaching the 90s Thursday and
  Friday. Heat Index values may exceeded 100 degree in a few
  places on those days.

- A handful of 15-25% storm chances paint a few areas Monday-
  Wednesday night, though the next best areawide precipitation
  chance does not come until Saturday night (25-45%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025


     Tonight...


A few clouds this morning to early afternoon have kept highs to the
mid to upper 70s today. Later this afternoon/evening, a few storms
are expected to bubble up along a surface convergence boundary
across northern Nebraska. Given the northwesterlies aloft apart of
the backside of a shortwave trough, a few storms may be able to move
down into a few northwest portions of our area. MU CAPE values up to
2,000-2,500J suggest that some of these storms may have the ability
to develop modestly strong updrafts through lapse rates (5-7C/km)
and bulk shear magnitudes (20-30kts) do not appear overly
impressive. Current CAM guidance shows most of these storms to be
short lived, though a few gusty outflows may still be able to
produce some gusty winds up to 50-60 MPH out ahead of a few of these
storms. The best timing for these storms will fall between 7-11PM,
though it is possible that a few scattered and non-severe storms
continue on into the late night and potentially early Monday morning.
A marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) covers areas mainly
along and east of highway 281 tonight.

Beyond the broad surface high pressure over the Grate Lakes region,
a lack of a surface pressure gradient should keep winds fairly light
overnight tonight out of the south to southeast at times. Given the
light to clam winds and the excess of moisture (upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints), fog formation may be possible in a few areas tonight,
especially for areas concentrated towards the north and west. The
only concern that could inhibit fog formation would be if cloudy
skies limit diurnal cooling and prevent surface temperatures from
falling close to their saturation point.


     Monday through Saturday...


The wave train of shortwave troughs passing across the Central and
Southern Plains this past weekend should come to an end Monday.
Instead, a building ridge across the southwest looks to amplify,
raising heights across all levels of the atmosphere. The presence of
this broadening ridge will stick around for most of the week,
leading to subsidence that should make it more challenging for an
organized precipitation system to power through without a modest
lifting mechanism/source. Precipitation chances through much of the
week remain questionable. Besides a few chances (15-25%) to the
northwest Monday night and to the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, the next best areawide precipitation chance does not show up
in the forecast until Saturday night. This precipitation chance will
fall as the ridge is expected to break down with the possibility of
an incoming Northern Plains bound trough.

South to southeast winds are expected to retain a majority of the
week under the ridge. Falling surface pressure Tuesday from a
surface trough sliding in across the western edge of the Northern
Plains, will bump up winds Tuesday. Gusts Tuesday afternoon could
jump up as high as 20-30 MPH, generally strongest towards the west.

The main story from the mid to end of the week should become the
temperatures. Highs starting in the low to mid 80s Monday, will
gradually increase towards the full 90s by Friday. Heat indices
could once again approach and in a few places exceed 100 degrees
Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms over west-central Nebraska will continue
southeastward, but they are expected to break up before reaching
EAR/GRI. Stratus is still possible Monday morning (12-17Z), but
the probability has decreased somewhat. The latest NBM shows a
40-50% chance for MVFR ceilings during this timeframe. SE to
SSE winds prevail through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels