281
FXUS63 KGID 041805
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
105 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing storm chances this afternoon across far western
  areas, spreading east to include the Highway 281 corridor by
  late afternoon/early evening. In addition to a general threat
  for cloud to ground lightning, a few storms could be on the
  strong to marginally severe side, with wind gusts in excess of
  60 mph along with heavy rainfall both possible.

- A few lingering storms will be possible Saturday...although
  most areas will remain dry. A better chance for storms returns
  with the next disturbance late Saturday night (after
  midnight).

- Additional storm chances will continue across the local area
  through much of next week. At this time, the better (more
  widespread) chances appear to be with a series of upper level
  disturbances Sunday, Tuesday and again Thursday night/Friday.
  Temperatures should remain seasonably warm through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A few storms can be seen firing up across the high plains early
this morning, ahead of the next upper level disturbance,
currently moving across the central Rockies. This disturbance
should reach south central Nebraska by late afternoon/early
evening, helping to initiate shower and thunderstorms across the
local area. Given the timing of this disturbance, expect the
potential for impacts on outdoor festivities this evening, with
local visitors/residents encouraged to pay attention to
developing storms later today. While the main threat will be the
potential for strong to marginally severe wind gusts, any
thunderstorm could present a risk for outdoor activities.

Latest CAMS continue to indicate storm initialization across
western areas (western Dawson county) during the early
afternoon hours, reaching the highway 281 corridor around
22-00Z. With PW values around 1.25-1.5 inches...in addition to
the lightning and strong wind gust threat...heavy rain could
also be realized, and much of the local area is in a marginal
risk for flooding later today.

Storms should then eventually exit east late tonight...with
mainly dry weather filling in on Saturday. Thereafter the upper
level pattern remains fairly messy...with multiple upper level
disturbances forecast to potentially impact the central plains.
While the week will not be continuously unsettled, multiple
upper level disturbances will cross the local area over the
course of the week, helping to maintain a fairly active weather
pattern across the plains as indicated in ensembles. Given the
active pattern and lack of a strong upper level ridge building
aloft, temperatures should remain fairly seasonable throughout
the period, a few degrees either side of climo (upper 80s to
near 90) each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Confidence is reasonably-high in VFR ceiling/visibility through
a good majority of the period. However, there will likely be at
least brief/sporadic exceptions, as some models/guidance are
fairly insistent that MVFR ceiling will prevail at times, and
there is also fairly high confidence that intermittent
showers/thunderstorms will pass through later this afternoon-
evening, which could easily drop ceiling/visibility to at least
MVFR territory. Outside of any convective outflow influences,
winds will not be huge concern, with the overall-strongest
speeds this afternoon (gusts to around 24KT) out of the south.

- Ceiling/visibility/thunderstorm details:
Starting with ceiling, while confidence is high in VFR through
at least these first 4-6 hours (albeit with a low-end VFR
ceiling), unfortunately uncertainty crops up thereafter. Some
models/guidance are fairly insistent that MVFR will stick around
through much of tonight into Saturday morning, but the overall
model consensus is for MVFR to be less widespread. As a result,
have kept prevailing MVFR out of TAFs, but am "hinting" of the
potential with various scattered lower cloud groups.

As for thunderstorm potential, confidence has increased enough
to introduce TEMPO groups (23-03Z KEAR/00-04Z KGRI), as these
appear to be the main 4-hour windows of opportunity for at least
intermittent convection. Prior to the TEMPO groups, have
started lower-confidence PROB30 groups as early as 20Z KEAR/21Z
KGRI. Severe storms appear fairly unlikely, but wind gusts up
to around 30-40KT along with brief heavy rain is certainly
possible. Beyond the aforementioned TEMPO times, cannot rule out
a brief shower later in the night, but confidence in this is
too low to even justify a PROB30.

- Wind details (not accounting for any convective outflow
  influences):
The overall-strongest speeds of the period are right away this
afternoon...southerly sustained around 16KT/gusts around 24KT).
From this evening onward, sustained speeds will mainly prevail
near-to-below 10KT, as direction gradually shifts from
southerly, to southwesterly, to northwesterly behind a weak cold
front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch