746
FXUS63 KGID 011743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
  and light winds.

- Elevated fire weather concerns return on Wednesday with breezy winds
  gusting 20 to 30 mph.

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather continue through the rest
  of the forecast period and into next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns continue into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Today....

Temperatures this morning have fallen into the 40s across most of
the area. Northern portions of the area will have temperatures dip
into the upper 30s. noticeably cooler weather is expected today as a
high pressure system moves over the area. Highs today will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s. While highs will only be a few degrees below
"normal" (normal highs in the low to mid 70s), southern portions of
the area will be around 20 degrees cooler than on Monday. Light
winds will keep fire weather concerns low. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday...

Southerly flow over the area will aid in highs returning to the 80s
on Wednesday. Breezy winds will also bring elevated fire weather
concerns to the area. Southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20
to 30 mph are expected on Wednesday, with relative humidity (RH)
values of 20 to 25%. The strongest gusts will occur earlier in the
day than the lowest RH values which will help to keep fire weather
concerns below critical conditions. If afternoon winds or RH values
are lower than currently forecast, fire weather headlines may end up
being needed. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 40s to low
50s.

Thursday and Friday...

Temperatures will trend back towards normal on Thursday with highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Breezy winds on Thursday with gusts of
20-25mph will lead to another day of elevated fire weather concerns.
Friday will be cooler with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows
Thursday night and Friday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

This Weekend Onwards...

Dry weather continues through the weekend and into next week.
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching shortwave trough on Saturday
will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Breezy winds and low RH
values on Saturday could bring another day with elevated to near-
critical fire weather concerns. In the wake of the departing
shortwave, highs return to the 70s on Sunday. Overall, warm and dry
weather is expected to continue into next week. The CPC 6-10 day and
8-14 day forecasts favor above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation. GFS and ECMWF Ensemble also continue to indicate
little to no chances for precipitation into the middle of
October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with only thin high clouds expected.
Winds will continue to be lgt and vrbl today as sfc high
pressure passes through. Winds will turn to the S and incr this
eve as the high pressure shifts E. This incr in sfc speeds
should keep low level wind shear at bay. Strengthening pressure
gradient will lead to breezy SSW for the daytime Wednesday,
with sustained speeds around 15kt, and gusts around 25kt.
Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Thies