405
FXUS63 KGID 190854
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
354 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday.

- Widespread rain/t-storms expected Saturday into early Sunday.

- Trending drier and cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A few thunderstorms persist over eastern Nebraska/Kansas, but
any additional development should stay safely to our east today.
Temperatures should push into the 80s today (near 90 in SE
zones), accompanied by mostly clear skies and a light northwest
wind.

Southerly winds return on Friday in advance of our next storm
system. This will allow temperatures to once again make a run
at 90 degrees, although this will be our last chance at the
upper 80s and 90s for a while...

Some isolated convection becomes possible Friday night,
although this favors areas to our south. Chances for rain and
thunderstorms then continue to increase through Saturday morning
as the upper low approaches from the west. There are still some
timing differences between amongst global deterministic/ensemble
runs, but the overall most favorable time for rain is Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. An overall lack of instability
will keep the threat for severe weather pretty low. Models have
now come into a little better consensus that dry conditions
return by Monday morning.

Rainfall totals have trended a bit downwards over the past 24
hours. The 00Z ensemble suite shows that 1.00" or more is still
likely (50-80% chance), but the probability for 2.00"+ has
decreased and shifted east-southeastward. This is especially
true on the latest GEFS and EPS...while the GEPS is still on the
wetter side. In total, 1.00-2.00" appears to be the most likely
range, although many locations will receive less/more than
this.

Of course with fairly widespread clouds/rain, temperatures will
trend cooler for the weekend. On Saturday, some areas could
still reach the low 80s before rain/storms move in, but Sunday
will be even cooler. Many areas may struggle to even reach 60
degrees Sunday afternoon. Quite the change as we currently sit
in the mid 60s to mid 70s at 330am! Depending on how quickly
skies clear Monday morning, western portions of the area could
get quite cold. Our current forecast is for lows in the low to
mid 40s, but the 01Z NBM shows a low chance (10-30%) that our
west and north could drop into the upper 30s!

There are some low chances for rain through next week, but there
isn`t much consistent signal on the ensembles. Temperatures
slowly rebound back towards normal by the middle/end of next
week (lows near 50...highs in the 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A weak cold front will move through the TAF sites this morning.
The models are hinting at a FEW to SCT015 layer this morning, so
kept the mention of it in the TAFS. Winds pickup a little this
afternoon and will taper off this evening as high pressure moves
in.

This weekend is looking wet with IFR to MVFR ceilings Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Ceilings gradually rise to VFR by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda