803
FXUS63 KGID 302359
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry, cooler, and less humid tonight into Tuesday.

- Upper 80s to lower 90s return in time for the 4th of July,
  before cooling slightly for the weekend.

- Mother Nature may have some of her own fireworks for the 4th
  of July, and additional off and on chances continue through
  much of the weekend.

- This is obviously potentially unfortunate for outdoor
  events/activities, but it is too soon to determine specific
  timing, coverage, or severity - so keep an eye on updated
  forecasts as we move through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Initial cold front from last night has swept well S of the area
today, leading to cooler, drier air and refreshing Nrly breezes.
A secondary/re-inforcing front is also moving N to S through the
area, currently near/along the NE/KS state line. Some isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms have developed along this
convergence zone in SE Nebraska last few hours. Can`t completely
rule out a few cells backbuilding into far SE portions of the
CWA next few hours, but seems like only ~10% chance attm, so
kept the forecast dry. This re-inforcing shot should make for a
very pleasant evening and overnight as lows drop back nicely
into the mid 50s to lower 60s from N to S. One other caveat -
with the clear skies, lgt winds, and recent rainfall...could see
patchy areas of shallow ground fog develop around dawn. Not
really seeing much support for this from a model perspective,
but local experience suggests its at least a chc worth noting.

Shortwave ridging edges E/SE on Tue and allows for return flow
to gradually incr from W to E during the day. Not expecting much
for cloud cover, so should be able to warm back into the mid to
upper 80s, perhaps near 90F in Furnas Co. CAMs ignite scattered
convection over the High Plains Tue aftn/eve, then try to move
this activity eastward down I-80 after dark. 18Z HRRR attempts
to move convection to Hwy 283 corridor by around midnight, with
rapid weakening thereafter. Have kept some slight chances
(~20%) in the forecast to account for this potential.

Srly flow becomes more established by Wed and temps should
respond accordingly into the upper 80s to lower 90s area wide.
Will also feel more humid with seasonable dew points returning
to the upper 60s to lower 70s. High Plains convection appears
less likely Wed PM.

Pattern generally turns more active for the second half of the
week, and into next weekend, which unfortunately, coincides with
outdoor activities/events associated with the 4th of July. While
no single day looks like a complete/sure washout worthy of
cancellations...each day will carry at least some potential for
showers/storms that tend to focus during the evening and
overnight hours. Of the unofficial 4-day holiday weekend, 4th of
July/Thursday itself looks to have some of the lowest chances,
and at least through the early evening, focused mainly along/S
of the state line. Ensemble guidance shows and general uptick in
chances/coverage Fri into Sat, however, and latest operational
EC indicates continued MCS potential into Sun. Again, too early
to determine specific severity and potential rain amounts.
Climatologically speaking, though, would expect at least SOME
risk for damaging wind gusts and heavy rain with the strongest
activity as MUCAPEs rise to 2000-4500 J/kg, at times, and PWATs
incr to ~2 std deviations above normal. Areas that have received
heavy rainfall over the past week will certainly want to keep up
to date on latest forecasts, but at least we`re getting a few
dry days in now. Temperatures should fall back to primarily 80s
for the weekend amidst greater cloud cover/convective debris.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Fairly high confidence VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Northerly winds will continue to gust to near 18 KTS
for the next hour or so...diminishing around 01/01 before
becoming light and variable aft 01/03...and remaining light
through the early morning hours Tuesday. Southwest winds on the
backside of a departing area of surface high pressure will
increase to near 10 KTS on Tuesday, with clear skies prevailing.
With a mainly southwesterly (albeit light) component of the
wind overnight...think fog potential is very low...and with
model guidance unsupportive of fog development, did not mention
at either TAF site.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

3-5 inches of rain fell last night across much of Smith and
Jewell Counties in north central Kansas, most of which occurred
in only 6-9 hours. The heaviest 4-5" swath fell squarely on the
White Rock Creek watershed, and as a result, the creek remains
at or above flood stage near Burr Oak as of 4PM. It appears the
creek at the gauge site has crested, but expect only a slow fall
this evening thanks to fact that heavy rain fell along nearly
the entire reach. Still a lot of water to move into Lovewell
Reservoir, which has already risen by about a foot.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi
HYDROLOGY...Thies