311
FXUS63 KGID 302338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
538 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight and Monday
  morning for north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska

- The 2-3" type snow is on track in the advisory area. Winds
  will be light but the morning commute impacted

- Up and down type temperature week after midnight brief periods
  of melting possible but also sub-zero temperatures.
  Precipitations looks sparse after Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure has been ridging down across the area today giving a
reprieve the strong winds of Saturday. Low clouds have edged west on
the east side of the surface ridge and produced periods of flurries
in the cold stratus. To the west, high clouds already thickening
ahead of the next short wave seen on water vapor imagery churning its
way through northern Utah. Temperatures climbed a bit from
early morning lows in the single digits but it is still 25+
degrees colder than normal for the last day of November.

With the shortwave in Utah, we turn our attention the light
snow event late tonight/Monday morning. Given the timing during
the Monday morning commute, have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory from Midnight to until Noon Monday for north central
Kansas and far southern Nebraska. The expectation is for about
2" of snow, but 3" or even 4" is possible in any narrow band
that sets up around sunrise Monday, mainly along Highway 24 in
Kansas. As mentioned, the higher liquid-snow ration around 18/20-1
support a fluff snow that may add up a bit more in spots. The
models seem to have trended a bit farther south so the "heavier"
amounts would favor northern Kansas. This plays well with an
initial band of light snow with warm advection well north into
Nebraska, capable of producing an inch or so of snow. That light
snow may start as early as 10 PM tonight. However, its later
when a narrow frontogenetic band sets up from west to east as
the upper trough approaches that the snow will increase along
south of Highway 6. That band should develop in northwest Kansas
and slide east, reaching peak intensity over north central
Kansas in the 6 to 9 AM time frame Monday. Its a steady snow
with lower visibility but winds are light (under 10 mph) so
flakes will float and not break apart. The models are very
consistent in timing with the snow clearing 90% of north central
Kansas by Noon or no late than 1 pm. To the north of Highway 6,
its not no snow, just a bit less fluff accumulation in general
(inch-ish range). Its cold while it snows but some late day sun
will help temperatures rebound into the 20s, but still may lower
highs slightly with fresh snow and early sunset.

Looking at the rest of the week, its a little up and down
temperature-wise and "mostly dry". Prior to a stronger cold front
moving through early Wednesday morning, temperatures will moderate
Tuesday with some limited melting possible despite the fresh
snow thanks to more sunshine, at least for a while.

As mentioned, Wednesday will turn colder again with a cold front
passing early in the day. North winds will increase and wind chills
drop...standard stuff for winter. The latest Hi-Res RRFS model is
more aggressive with a light precipitation event Wednesday morning,
suggesting even a mixture of precipitation. Its view would be less
than tomorrow`s snow, but more than a trace across parts of mainly
south central Nebraska Wednesday. Right now, not enough
consensus to include any precipitation chances. Temperatures
drop further Wednesday night with high pressure quickly settling
in the area with clear skies and light winds. Portions of south
central Nebraska north and east of Grand Island will likely
drop below zero Wednesday night. The cold start Thursday leads
into a cold day but we will start to some moderation of
temperatures again Friday and Saturday helping to spark from
melting again. And like Wednesday, the warmer weather will
precede another cold front likely to move through the Plains
late next Saturday/Sunday (could be trace type event).

Looking at the 10-15 day period and beyond, the models/ensembles
have trended colder again, though we could still some more "normal"
temperatures mid month. The overall pattern in December still
settles on cooler than normal overall. It appears to be a more
active weather pattern in general, with more weather systems, but
the flow leans toward a west/northwest flow, and that doesn`t
necessarily support a lot of precipitation (like large troughs/big
storms). The next couple weeks look fairly void of major storm
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected this evening then MVFR (and
possibly lower) are expected until at least 18z Monday. Low end
VFR ceilings are expected for most of Monday afternoon. Light
snow showers are expected overnight with some visibility
reductions possible. Winds will transition towards the southeast
then the southwest Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Monday for NEZ082>087.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Schuldt