480
FXUS63 KGID 111735
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...18z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and thunderstorms persist this morning, with
  redevelopment possible in the afternoon. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Dry and quiet weather is expected Tuesday-Friday.

- Heat returns late next week. Heat index values may exceed 100
  degrees Friday/Saturday.

- Rain/t-storm chances return to the area next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

As of 3am, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still
persist west of Highway 183, but this activity remains on a slow
weakening trend over the past few hours. A stronger complex of
thunderstorms continues across southern KS, with only light
stratiform rain extending north of I-70. Most of the area is
expected to remain dry through sunrise, but there could be some
localized fog with the light winds and remaining low-level
moisture.

Near term models then show a few showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping later in the morning (and especially into the
afternoon) as a upper level trough continues to slowly push
through the area. Instability and shear are rather limited
(~1000 J/kg MUCAPE...20kt 0-6km shear), so severe storms are not
expected. The main threats will be lightning and brief
downpours.

Whatever showers/storms develop should wane with sunset, and
most (if not all) activity should remain to our southeast Monday
night. This kicks off a pretty quiet period for most of this
week. A shortwave passing through the northern Plains may kick
off some storms well to our north Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but otherwise the upper level pattern remains pretty
quiet.

By late next week, ridging will build over the central CONUS,
allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s by Thursday/Friday,
and heat index values are expected to challenge 100 degrees in
many places on Friday.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast over the weekend, with
nightly chances for thunderstorms to roll out of western
Nebraska/Kansas and into our area. Temperatures also trend
slightly cooler for the weekend, partly due to uncertainty
surrounding these thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tricky low-level cloud bases (2-4kft) bounding between
scattered to broken at times over the next few hours (mainly
until 22z). Showers with a rumble of thunder continue on
through KGRI through 19z or so, with storms/showers in
KGRI/KEAR vicinity through mainly 22z. There is a limited
potential for a few more storms to develop between 22-03z, but
the impacts to KEAR/KGRI are unclear as storm coverage looks to
remain minimal. Retaining VFR conditions are expected to take
back over this afternoon.

Light winds will stay fairly variable though this evening and
night with a passing cold front keeping winds north to
northeasterly for Tuesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump