433
FXUS63 KGID 011720
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1120 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon for
  counties along and south of the state line.

- Light snow falling this morning will coat the area with between a
  trace to 1" and up to just over 3" across the advisory areas.

- Highs will fluctuate between the 20s and 40s through the week with
  lows in the single digits to 20s.

- The coldest night of the week will occur Wednesday night where places
  north and east of the Tri-Cities will have the chance to even
  dip below 0 degrees (to as low as -4 degrees).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025


The Snow this Morning...

Our latest snow forecast has diminished some as virtually all high-
resolution model guidance now show an even weaker snow accumulation
signal coming out of this morning`s passing disturbance. Currently,
the bands of snow moving out of eastern Colorado, as observed on
radar, appear to be fairly narrow and are tracking slightly more
southward than model trajectories were projecting. Light snow is
still on track to coat over at least 90% of our coverage area. The
greatest amounts falling across our Winter Weather Advisory
counties, especially across our southern Kansas areas. Amounts in
these areas could reach up to just over 3" in places. These bands of
snow will continue to carry on through the rest of the morning with
the period of accumulation expected to come to a close to between
mainly 6AM and noon. The outer edges of the snow bands will
clear from northwest to southeast during this period of time.
Lighter winds today on the backside of yesterday`s surface high
pressure center passage, will keep the snow from blowing around too
much.

What type of snow is expected?: Given a deep low-level dendritic
growth zone (1-2km tall) and the presence of isentropic lift feeding
moisture north and up the theta-e gradient, a less dense and
naturally fluffier snow should fall out from this disturbance. This
type of less dense and drier snow flakes will likely run up the
liquid to snow ratio, generally making it easier to accumulate to
the ground (less compact snowpack).

Beyond this morning`s snow, a low-end chance (10-15%) for a few
flurries to a weak trace of snow lies Wednesday morning. Confidence
remains low for this event as the most recent GFS/ECMWF synoptic
guidance places the upper-level trough and associated snow region
just outside of the area to our west (Mainly for western NE and
eastern CO).


The Cold later this Week (Especially Wednesday Night)...

The other story this week beyond the snow today will be the notably
cold temperatures. Highs through the week will fluctuate between the
20s and 40s with lows in the single digits to 20s. Overnight lows
may even dip bellow 0 degrees (as low as -4 degrees) in some areas
north and east of the Tri-Cities Wednesday night into Thursday
morning (the coldest night of the week). Winds chills Thursday
morning are currently forecast to range between -12 and 4 degrees

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure has been ridging down across the area today giving a
reprieve the strong winds of Saturday. Low clouds have edged west on
the east side of the surface ridge and produced periods of flurries
in the cold stratus. To the west, high clouds already thickening
ahead of the next short wave seen on water vapor imagery churning its
way through northern Utah. Temperatures climbed a bit from
early morning lows in the single digits but it is still 25+
degrees colder than normal for the last day of November.

With the shortwave in Utah, we turn our attention the light
snow event late tonight/Monday morning. Given the timing during
the Monday morning commute, have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory from Midnight to until Noon Monday for north central
Kansas and far southern Nebraska. The expectation is for about
2" of snow, but 3" or even 4" is possible in any narrow band
that sets up around sunrise Monday, mainly along Highway 24 in
Kansas. As mentioned, the higher liquid-snow ration around 18/20-1
support a fluff snow that may add up a bit more in spots. The
models seem to have trended a bit farther south so the "heavier"
amounts would favor northern Kansas. This plays well with an
initial band of light snow with warm advection well north into
Nebraska, capable of producing an inch or so of snow. That light
snow may start as early as 10 PM tonight. However, its later
when a narrow frontogenetic band sets up from west to east as
the upper trough approaches that the snow will increase along
south of Highway 6. That band should develop in northwest Kansas
and slide east, reaching peak intensity over north central
Kansas in the 6 to 9 AM time frame Monday. Its a steady snow
with lower visibility but winds are light (under 10 mph) so
flakes will float and not break apart. The models are very
consistent in timing with the snow clearing 90% of north central
Kansas by Noon or no late than 1 pm. To the north of Highway 6,
its not no snow, just a bit less fluff accumulation in general
(inch-ish range). Its cold while it snows but some late day sun
will help temperatures rebound into the 20s, but still may lower
highs slightly with fresh snow and early sunset.

Looking at the rest of the week, its a little up and down
temperature-wise and "mostly dry". Prior to a stronger cold front
moving through early Wednesday morning, temperatures will moderate
Tuesday with some limited melting possible despite the fresh
snow thanks to more sunshine, at least for a while.

As mentioned, Wednesday will turn colder again with a cold front
passing early in the day. North winds will increase and wind chills
drop...standard stuff for winter. The latest Hi-Res RRFS model is
more aggressive with a light precipitation event Wednesday morning,
suggesting even a mixture of precipitation. Its view would be less
than tomorrow`s snow, but more than a trace across parts of mainly
south central Nebraska Wednesday. Right now, not enough
consensus to include any precipitation chances. Temperatures
drop further Wednesday night with high pressure quickly settling
in the area with clear skies and light winds. Portions of south
central Nebraska north and east of Grand Island will likely
drop below zero Wednesday night. The cold start Thursday leads
into a cold day but we will start to some moderation of
temperatures again Friday and Saturday helping to spark from
melting again. And like Wednesday, the warmer weather will
precede another cold front likely to move through the Plains
late next Saturday/Sunday (could be trace type event).

Looking at the 10-15 day period and beyond, the models/ensembles
have trended colder again, though we could still some more "normal"
temperatures mid month. The overall pattern in December still
settles on cooler than normal overall. It appears to be a more
active weather pattern in general, with more weather systems, but
the flow leans toward a west/northwest flow, and that doesn`t
necessarily support a lot of precipitation (like large troughs/big
storms). The next couple weeks look fairly void of major storm
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT-BKN ceilings
around 090 will clear this afternoon, with clear skies
persisting into Tuesday morning. Late in the TAF period mid-high
level clouds move into the area. Southwest winds around 10kts
this afternoon become light overnight, and strengthen again late
Tuesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Davis