860
FXUS63 KGID 120814
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for several counties across
  south central Nebraska. The warning will be in effect today
  from 11AM until 9PM.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Thursday. The
  warm temperatures, dry conditions, and dusty winds will result
  in near- critical to critical fire weather conditions each day
  through Thursday.

- A storm system will move across the Dakotas along with an
  attendant cold front. Wednesday evening will be our next
  chance for precipitation, with isolated shower and storms
  possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Split flow continues to dominate over the CONUS today, with an upper
ridge shifting east over the Great Lakes. An upper trough and closed
low continue to move ashore over the West Coast. Later in the week,
this system may bring some people a chance for precipitation. A
closed upper low continues to sit over the Gulf Coast states,
bringing showers and storms to that region.

Expect another day of the heat today with highs in the mid to upper
80s. A few areas may approach 90 degrees this afternoon. Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
south central Nebraska today. The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning and expanded east to include Nance and Merrick
counties. The warning will be in effect from 11AM to 9PM today.
Areas outside of the warning area can expect near-critical fire
weather conditions. For additional information, please see the Red
Flag Warning product and the Fire Weather discussion.

The heat continues heading into Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s to
low 90s. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected across portions of south central Nebraska.

The dry conditions and heat continue Wednesday, ahead of our next
storm system. Widespread 90s are in the forecast Wednesday
afternoon. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are
expected during the day. For additional informations, please see the
fire weather discussion.

An upper trough will move across the Colorado Rockies and a closed
upper low will move over the Big Horns through the day
Wednesday. As we approach the evening, a cold front will advance
east into Nebraska. There is a chance for a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms kicking off in our northern counties
Wednesday afternoon. Chances expand further south toward the
Kansas-Nebraska border Wednesday evening. Coverage of storms is
expected to be spotty at this time. Precipitation chances should
end for most areas by Thursday morning.

The cold front will bring noticeably cooler temperatures to the
region on Thursday. High temperatures will range from the mid-30s
along and north of a line from Holdrege to Osceola. Upper 70s
to low 80s are expected for areas south of that line. Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions may be possible
through the day. Please check out the fire weather discussion
for additional details.

Toward the latter part of the week, models are showing another
disturbance moving across the the region. Initially, moisture with
the system will be limited, streaming in from the Pacific. As the
system moves further east, models are showing it will tap into
moisture coming from the Baja Peninsula area before finally pulling
in warm gulf air.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
increase out of the south late this morning, persisting through
sunset. Clear skies are expected through most of the period,
with a few high clouds possible tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Expect the hot and dry weather pattern to continue through mid-
week, with fire weather conditions expected across portions of the
region each day through Thursday.

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and
was expanded east to include Nance and Merrick counties. The Red
Flag Warning will be in effect from 11AM until 9PM today. South
winds gusting to around 25 to 35 MPH in combination with relative
humidity values as low as 18 percent are expected.

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the forecast area on Tuesday. AT this time, no headlines have
been issued.

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected again
on Wednesday and Thursday for large portions of the area. Wednesday,
the worst conditions will be along and west of a line from Cozad to
Kearney to Burr Oak. Thursday, near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions will be possible for areas along and south of I-
80.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser
FIRE WEATHER...Wekesser