767
FXUS63 KGID 071015
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
415 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few clouds today with light winds and Highs in the low to mid
50s. A few isolated showers (20-30%) in the southwest could pop up
late tonight mainly for North Central KS.

- Widespread chances for showers staring in the SW Friday morning
and expanding NE through the day as a band of uniform rain lifts
into the area. Chances 70-90% are expected to sustain Friday night
into Saturday morning. Chances will tamper off through the day
Saturday by the same means (SW to NE).

- 80% confidence for at least 0.5" areawide through Saturday with
locally greater amounts up to an 1-1.5".

- A moodiest 10 degree warmup Sunday-Tuesday (upper 50s to lower
  60s) with a 20% chance for rain Wednesday from a projected
  cold front passage propelled from an upper level trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024


Today...

A few clouds part of the deformation region on the northern
outskirts of a soon to be approaching disturbance, will sweep by
along the northeast flowing mid to upper level jet today. Though
some low level dry air advecting underneath the cloud base will act
as a dry/evaporative medium, a few light sprinkles near our western
fringe (West of HWY-183) could still manage to reach down to the
ground in a few and very isolated spots (10% chance). Highs will
generally stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s with intermittent
windows for a peaking sun. Winds will remain light to calm with weak
surface high pressure.

The next true precipitation chance associated with this system is on
track to pass over our region this weekend (Friday & Saturday). The
core of the system is currently undergoing cyclogenesis (the process
of deepening a surface low pressure center) down and around the
southeast corner of AZ. This synoptic level process driven
practically by mid-level PVA induced upward vertical motion will
continue to mature the system as the upper level trough axis over the
desert southwest is expected to pivot from a positive to negative
tilt through the day. This gradual shift over the next several hours
will open up its difluent region over Kansas, creating a vertical
pressure gradient based lifting mechanism. The tightening of the
west to east thermal gradient through a Frontogenetic process near
the surface will guide the low mainly north and east, riding the
baroclinic gradient up into Nebraska by Saturday.

Shower chances 20-30% may start as early as overnight Thursday for
areas south and west of the Tr-Cities, mainly concentrated south of
the KS/NE border. These showers, ahead of the main systems leading
edge, are expected to stay more isolated to scattered as the main
uniform band of rain lifts north through Kansas.

Friday and Saturday...

The main coherent band of widespread rain showers will begin to work
their way through staring Friday morning, reaching our southwestern
areas in the early morning hours. The system, driven by the
northeast lifting upper level trough, will continue to edge upward
through the remainder of the areas from SW to NE over the daytime
Friday. Fairly persistent rain chances 70-90% will are expected to
remain in place areawide through Saturday morning when clearing will
start to take place near the dry slot behind the system. The band of
rain will clear SW to NE throughout the day Saturday. In total, rain
amounts at least 0.5in areawide with greater amounts locally up to 1-
1.5in. The precipitation type is expected to remain purely rain with
any snow chances west of the forecast area. Temperatures up near 850
hPa is expected to remain above freezing, greatly favoring the
hydrometer to fall in the form of liquid precipitation. It is
possible for a few of these showers to potentially carry a rumble or
two of thunder, but general thunderstorm development remains low due
to the the lack of instability.

Sunday and Beyond...

As the system pulls away Sunday, clearing skies and rising
temperatures will warm around 10 degrees with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s starting off the week. PoPs will remain non-existent
Sunday evening through Tuesday morning as a brief period of mid and
upper level ridging on the upstream side of the exiting trough will
provide subsiding air to the Region.

The leading pattern heading into midweek from long range ensemble
forecasts suggests another shortwave trough that could buckle from
the the upper level jet stream, potentially steering a cold front
Wednesday. This frontal passage could bring along a 20% precip
chance. Lower confidence lies being 6 days out and from an expected
sharper moisture gradient with the highest PWAT values east lying
east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Excessive cloud coverage fluctuating between BKN to OVC skies
with bases around 3000ft tonight will slowly lift and thin out
heading into the later afternoon hours Thursday (after 18z).
MVFR ceilings will be expected to generally hold with a drop in
probability between 18-21z. VFR conditions will likely hold
through the rest of the day. Winds will start out of the north
around 10kt overnight, slowly calming in the morning hours. A
southward shift in winds will be expected to occur near sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump