502
FXUS63 KGID 142331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry the rest of today into tonight. 20% chance for
  isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning.

- Fog possible tonight ahead of a warm frontal passage, could be
  locally dense especially along and north of I-80.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures Wednesday and
  Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- A cold front moves through the area Thursday night bringing
  the next chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms.

- Cooler/seasonable temperatures (63-75F) return Friday-Sunday.
  Maybe some patchy frost Sunday morning Lexington to Ord?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Most of the showers and drizzle have come to an end and we are
even seeing some clearing skies across north central Kansas. A
warm front will continue working north across north central
Kansas this evening and through south central Nebraska tonight.
Fog, locally dense, is possible along and north of the warm
front late this evening and especially tonight. We may need a
dense fog advisory for some of our Nebraska zones later tonight,
but not enough confidence to issue an advisory with this
forecast package. The most likely location for dense fog to
develop would be from around Geneva, to Hastings, to Lexington
and points north from there.

Some forecast models also try to generate a few showers or
thunderstorms across our northern zones after midnight ahead of
the warm front as it lifts north. At this point, it looks like
it would be very spotty in coverage and fairly low probability
(20%).


Wednesday and Thursday...

A deep upper trough will lift northeast out of Nevada on
Wednesday and into Montana by Thursday, while an upper level
ridge amplifies over the Missouri to Mississippi valley. Warm
air will stream northward with gusty southerly winds ahead of
the approaching storm system/cold front. This is a high
confidence low forecast spread for high temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s both days.

We could see a few very isolated elevated showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday morning with a weak vort max passing through out
well ahead of the main trough (20%). The main possibility for
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday evening into Thursday
night in association with the cold front passing through and
favoring western zones. Forcing will be strongest across
western zones and then the overall trough will weaken and open
up as it slides east.


Friday through Sunday...

It will certainly turn cooler behind the cold front on Friday,
but especially with a secondary shot of cooler air over the
weekend. Friday`s highs should still be in the 70s, but 60s are
more likely over the weekend. Given lower dew points we expect
a pretty substantial diurnal temperature range with perhaps
even mid to upper 30s for lows across western and northern zones
Sunday morning. This could set the stage for our first frost in
areas like Ord and Lexington. Overall this should be a dry
period.


Monday and Tuesday...
Another upper level trough will push through, but will probably
not have much moisture to work with so any precipitation chances
are currently low (20%). Perhaps we can reach the 70s ahead of
the next cold front on Monday and then cooler 60s behind the
front on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility are expected as fog develops
over central Nebraska. This should then retreat north of EAR/GRI
prior to sunrise on Wednesday as southerly winds return. VFR
conditions are then favored for the second half of the TAF
period (12Z to 00Z).

Marginal LLWS is expected early Wednesday morning as south-
southwesterly winds increase aloft.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels