596
FXUS63 KGID 150548
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1148 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above normal temperatures expected through
  Saturday, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

- High confidence in at least some rain across the entire area
  Monday-Monday night. Latest model guidance still shows the
  potential for rainfall amounts of 1-2" across the forecast
  area, with model guidance showing at least a 50% chances of
  over an inch of rain over the southern two-thirds of the
  forecast area.

- A second system may bring a rain-snow mix to the area
  Wednesday-Thursday. There is much lower confidence regarding
  this system, and latest model trends seem to want to aim the
  heaviest precipitation to the north and east of our area.
  This being 6-7 days out, there is a lot of time for this to
  change.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Currently, a deep upper trough sits just off the west coast of
the US, while a broad upper ridge is over much of the central
and western US. The upper level ridge is expected to remain in
place over the central Plains through Saturday, and will allow
temperatures to remain fairly steady and above normal, with
highs in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures will be in the low
to mid 30s tonight, but range from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Friday night. Saturday night, lows once again will be in the
30s. As the upper trough moves east across the Rockies it will
split into a northern and southern trough.

The northern trough will move quickly across the northern Plains
and Canada Sunday, with the southern trough expected to be
slower and sitting over the west TX / Mexico border Sunday.
Sunday will be dry but a bit cooler, with highs in the mid-50s
and lows in the 30s.

As the trough starts to move northeast Sunday night and Monday,
a shortwave ahead of the low may allow rain to sneak north in to
north central Kansas as early as Sunday night, but with the
trough moving northeast into the forecast area during the day
Monday, the bulk of the rainfall will be Monday-Monday night.
While the lowest rainfall amounts are expected to be west and northwest
of the tri-cities, model guidance currently continues to
support the potential for 1-2" of rainfall across the entire
forecast area (although this model run HAS trended lower than
previous model runs so those 1-2" amounts are not a sure thing
and may trend lower, especially with this still being 4 days
away). While low temperatures are expected to drop into the low
to mid 30s by Tuesday morning, below freezing temperatures will
likely be after the rain starts to move out so snow is not
currently anticipated with this system.

Tuesday Through Thursday:

There looks to be another system moving across the central US
around the middle of next week (Wed-Thu currently looks to be
the best chance for impacts for our area). There are higher and
lower confidences with this system...

Higher confidence of much cooler weather with highs potentially
only into the 30s and 40s, with lows dropping into the low to
mid 20s. We also have higher confidence of gusty northwest winds
during this timeframe, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

Lower confidence during this timeframe mainly regarding the
timing and placement of any precipitation with this system.
Much of the latest deterministic model guidance keeps MOST, but
not all, of the precipitation to our east, although the ECMWF
brings more impactful precipitation to the area Wed night -
Thursday. At the point, there is much too low confidence to
even speculate rainfall and/or snowfall amounts with this mid-
to late next week system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant Weather: Strong winds on Friday, low level wind
shear (LLWS) Friday night.

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds start off the
period lgt and vrbl before turning SErly and incr by mid-late
AM. Winds incr further into the aftn into the 15-20kt sustained
range, with gusts as high as 25-30kt. Despite breezy SErly winds
continuing through the Friday overnight time period, albeit
slightly weaker than the daytime, appears LLWS will become a
concern thanks to 50-55kt Srly low level jet. Have that
beginning around 02Z Sat. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Thies