018
FXUS63 KGID 281741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1141 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are the main concern in the
  short term. The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include
  the entire forecast area today.

- Much cooler behind a backdoor cold front Saturday (40s/low
  50s), with a nice rebound in temperatures Sunday (upper 50s/60s)
  along with a small chance for showers and an isolated
  thunderstorm Sunday afternoon/evening (mainly south of Highway
  6).

- A decent shot for some appreciable moisture late Monday night
  through Tuesday night (70% chance). Rain is currently forecast
  to be the primary precipitation type, though some wet snow and
  strong NW winds are possible on the backside of this system
  Tuesday night.

- Overall, a more active pattern will continue through the end
  of the week with additional chances for precip Thursday and
  Friday along with generally seasonable temperatures (40s and
  low 50s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Mostly clear skies with only a few high clouds were observed
across the area overnight. Winds have been a bit breezy out of
the west (10 to 15 MPH) thanks to an increasing pressure
gradient, which has helped keep temperatures very mild across
the region so far this morning. While there could be a brief dip
towards sunrise, overnight low temperatures will likely run
10-15 degrees above seasonal norms to start the day.

As temperatures begin to warm across the region today, model
soundings indicate fairly good diurnal mixing of the atmosphere
will be realized, helping to mix down very gusty winds and a
drier airmass. This should also help afternoon temperatures
climb into the 60s and 70s across the region, making for a mild,
but windy afternoon. These conditions will also be favorable
for critical fire weather conditions, and went ahead and
expanded the RFW to include the entire forecast area earlier
this morning.

Cooler air will then briefly filter in from the northeast for
Saturday, dropping temperatures back into the 40s behind a
backdoor cold front. This front will rapidly push east on
Sunday, allowing temperature to rebound into the 50s and 60s to
round out the weekend as the first of several upper level
disturbance traversing the country in westerly flow reaches the
local area. This first system, currently off the central
California coast, will pass mainly south of the local area
Sunday afternoon/evening, bringing with it a small chance for
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the area. Given
relatively minor instability values (100-300 J/KG) of CAPE, any
thunderstorms that do develop should be non-severe.

Thereafter...a fairly active zonal pattern continues through the
end of the forecast period with at least 2 additional systems
impacting the local area through the end of next week. Tuesday
into Wednesday appears to be the best potential for some decent
(0.1-0.5") rainfall across the local area along with a small
chance for some wintry precip on the backside of the system
Tuesday night. That said, as precip transitions from rain to
snow, it should be coming to an end and little to no snowfall
accumulation is expected locally. Cooler temps should be
realized however, with near seasonable temperatures by mid-week,
and remaining near normal through the end of the week - along
with another low brushing mainly south of the local area
Thursday/Friday. Potential ridging aloft and a return to warmer
temperatures is possible just beyond the current range of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Strong NW winds through this afternoon.

Main impact with this TAF period is strong NW wind gusts through
this afternoon, with sustained speeds around 20kt and gusts up
to around 30kt. Winds will decr this eve around sunset, then go
light and varible overnight into Sat AM. VFR conditions are
expected through the period, with only passing FEW to SCT high
clouds. Confidence: High.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Winds will increase quickly across the area this morning as
temperatures begin to warm and fairly deep mixing (to near 7KFT)
begins to be realized. This will help mix down drier air from
aloft, resulting in afternoon relative humidity values below 20
percent area wide. In addition to the low relative humidity
values, winds will gust to near 45 MPH, especially north of the
interstate, but really, it will be windy (gusts of 30 to 40 MPH)
area wide. Given the dry fuels, strong winds and low RH values,
a critical fire weather day is anticipated across the local
area and a Red Flag warning is in effect from 10 AM through 8 PM
CST. Cooler temperatures and better relative humidity values
are anticipated for Saturday and Sunday, although Sunday will be
on the breezy side.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Rossi