532
FXUS63 KGID 201146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog will be possible mainly northwest of the
  Nebraska Tri-Cities through around 9 AM this morning.

- Periodic small chances (10-40%) for mostly non-severe
  thunderstorms will be possible across the local area through
  Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will also remain below
  normal through at least Tuesday (70s to mid 80s).

- Warmer temperatures (80s to lower 90s) and dry weather are
  anticipated for the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A cluster of non-severe thunderstorms has slowly pushed south
across much of the local area overnight. While there were some
gusty winds in a few spots (less than 50 mph), most of the area
has just received between 0.25 and 1.00 inch of beneficial
rainfall. As of 4 AM, the remainder of this precipitation can
be seen rotating around a developing mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) near the radar, with little to no lightning left
across the local area. Expect this MCV to continue to push east
southeast through the morning hours, with mostly dry weather in
its wake.

On satellite this morning, can also see the development and
expansion of low clouds north of the departing system, and
already have a couple areas with low ceilings and some fog
across the region. While the worst of this fog is north of
Highway 92, could see some light BR reach the Tri-cities over
the next hour or two, although it is not expected to linger much
past sunrise per latest model data. As a result, added some fog
to the forecast as well as the wording for some patchy dense
fog to the HWO through 9 AM CDT.

Later today, a few breaks in cloud cover could allow for some
shallow CU development and a few light showers or thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours, diminishing during the early
evening. While there are small pops in the forecast to cover
this, most areas will likely remain dry this afternoon/evening.

Thereafter...continued off and on small chances for
thunderstorms are expected in the amplified upper level pattern
which will steer continued cooler than normal air and a few weak
disturbances across the region in northerly flow. This pattern
is expected to shift around mid-week when the upper level ridge
across the intermountain west shift eastwards resulting in
rising heights aloft (warmer temps) and significantly reduced
chances for precipitation starting next Wednesday and continuing
into at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR CIGS has settled in across the area this morning with
occasionally reduced visibilities at both terminals down to
1-2SM. Expect these lower CIGS and VSBY to persist through
around 20/15Z...with CIGS then improving to MVFR levels and
VSBYS becoming VFR. For this afternoon, expect prevailing VFR
conditions to return, and as some breaks in the cloud cover are
observed, some CU could develop with an isolated -SHRA or -TSRA
possible into the early evening hours. PROBS of this are quite
low (10-15%), so did not include a mention in 12Z TAFS, but will
continue to monitor in case a -SHRA or -TSRA encroaches on
either terminal later today. With light winds and elevated
dewpoints again tonight, expect a potential repeat of IFR/LIFR
stratus and some fog, so introduces some lower CIGS/VSBYs again
aft 21/08Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi