063
FXUS63 KGID 171218 CCA
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
718 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 70s, sunny skies and light
  winds.

- Northwest winds gusting 30-40+ mph expected behind a cold
  frontal passage Saturday.

- Frost possible Sunday morning, most likely northwest of the
  Tri-Cities.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures Sunday onwards,
  with another round of gusty winds on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Today...

A few scattered showers are lingering across far eastern portions of
the area this morning. A cold front currently located roughly along
a Phillipsburg-Grand Island-Fullerto line and is slowly moving east
through the area. By sunrise, the front will reside just east of the
forecast area, with dry weather expected across the area. A cooler,
but still seasonably warm day is forecast today, with highs in the
70s, coolest west of Highway 183. Today will see a break from the
wind, with gusts generally at or below 20mph. Overall, a pleasant
and sunny October day is in store for the area. Lows in the 40s are
expected overnight.

Saturday and Sunday...

An upper-level trough over Manitoba/North Dakota will deepen and
dive into the Plains/Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, another,
more impressive cold font pushes through the area Saturday morning-
early afternoon. Northwest winds quickly increase behind the frontal
passage, gusting 30-40+mph. The ECMWF ensemble continues to be the
most bullish on wind gusts, indicating a 40-80% for gusts over
40mph across the area. Most other guidance is slightly lighter,
but still supportive of winds gusting 30-40mph. The northerly
winds will also usher in a much cooler airmass into the area.
Highs on Saturday vary depending on the timing of the cold
frontal passage, ranging from the upper 50s in the north, to the
low 70s across portions of north central Kansas.

The pressure gradient weakens Saturday night as the center of a high
pressure system moves overhead. Under the high, clear skies and
light winds are expected. Combined with the cooler airmass,
temperatures will drop into the 30s Saturday night/Sunday morning
and bring the seasons first chance for frost to the area. The
current forecast has the best chances for frost northwest of the Tri-
Cities where temperatures sink into the low-mid 30s. Frost
looks to be more isolated/patchy across central/southeastern
portions of the area but can`t be ruled out. While there remains
time for things to change, Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed
Saturday night/Sunday morning.

After a potentially frosty start to the morning, the high slides off
to the southeast as warmer, southwesterly winds strengthen over the
area. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected on Sunday, under
sunny skies. Drier air remains in place across the area, as
afternoon relative humidity values fall below 30 percent, which
could bring some fire weather concerns to the area. The biggest
limits on fire weather concerns Sunday will be marginal wind gusts
and not fully cured fuels. Will continue to keep an eye on Sunday,
as a trend up in winds could warrant an increase in fire weather
concerns. Lows in the mid-upper 40s are expected Sunday night.

Monday Onwards...

A passing shortwave trough brings another cold front through the
area on Monday. Similar to Saturday, windy weather is expected
behind the front, gusting 30-40+mph. Highs on Monday will range from
the low 60s to low 70s. Northwesterly flow sets up over the area
through the end of the forecast period. Under this flow/regime, near
to slightly above normal temperatures are expected (highs 60s/70s,
lows 30s/40s), with breezy winds during the afternoon. The forecast
remains dry through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Northwest winds
will increase to around 9kts during the day. Winds fall to 5kts
or less after sunset as they shift to the west-southwest. A few
mid-level clouds this morning will give way to clear skies
through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis