842
FXUS63 KGID 191143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold next few days. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect for south central Nebraska through 12pm Tuesday. Wind
  chill values of -15 to -25 degrees are expected, at times.

- Coldest period looks to be Monday-Monday night in which the
  Cold Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into north
  central Kansas.

- Near to above normal temperatures return by the middle to end
  of next week.

- Light snow will be possible across portions of northern Kansas
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

It`s cold. That basically sums up the next few days. Current
temperatures are only in the single digits, and factoring in a
steady NW breeze and wind chills are even colder in the teens
below zero for most. Despite copious amounts of sunshine today,
temperatures will struggle and likely only rise into the teens.
Daytime wind chills may not get above zero for areas N of I-80.

Highly amplified upper flow will force another clipper shortwave
through the region late tonight and into Monday. This wave could
bring a band of light snow to portions of northern KS, esp.
along and S of Hwy 24. Models continue to suggest best forcing
and moisture will be further S, along and S of I-70, so forecast
QPF remains very light (90% chance to remain below 0.05"). Thus,
any snow accumulations should be a light dusting, at best.

Winds will incr on the backside of the departing wave and bec
gusty for the aftn-eve hrs on Mon. This will really force the
wind chills well below zero, even during the daytime hours. In
fact, latest forecast keeps values below -10F all day on Mon
for areas along and N of I-80. Winds will gradually decr Mon eve
as a sfc ridge axis noses into the area. The combination of
strong sfc high pressure ~1045mb (which is about +2-2.5
standard deviations), light winds, clear skies, and very cold
temps the previous aftn should provide the necessary ingredients
to give us our coldest night of the season thus far Mon night.
Expect all areas to fall below zero for air temps, and favored
cold spots could make a run into the double digits below zero as
long as advancing high cirrus remains scattered and thin through
dawn Tue AM. With air temps so cold, even the lightest puffs of
wind will force wind chills to -15F to -25F. If models continue
to place the sfc high overhead or close by, and keep high clouds
until later in the day on Tue, will likely need to expand the
Cold Weather Advisory to include all of our KS zones.

Given lack of significant snow cover for vast majority of the
area, temperatures should be able to jump significantly on Tue
with the arrival of brisk SWrly low level flow. Latest blend
calls for mid 20s E/NE to mid 30s far SW, though want to note
that it`ll still feel quite chilly given wind speeds 10-20+ MPH
and increasingly filtered sunshine due to mid to high clouds.

Warming trend continues into Wed such that highs return closer
to normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, continued
amplified upper flow thanks to anomalously deep upper trough
over the Hudson Bay region will send yet another clipper system,
or two, and associated cold front(s) through the region mid to
late week. Thus, appears another breezy/blustery day will be in
store Wed with winds 15-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH (highest
NW of the Tri- Cities), though this time out of the NW.

Confidence on precise daily details declines later in the week.
Ultimately, temps will really just depend on overall pattern
amplitude of what will likely be a continuation of some flavor
of NW upper flow. That seems pretty certain. Now whether it
means temps in the 20/30s or 40/50s and exact timing/duration of
either will need to be worked out over the coming days. This
type of pattern also lends to fairly high confidence that
meaningful chances for appreciable moisture will be quite
limited. Lack of moisture/snowfall makes it easier to warm up
quickly on any days that have decent sunshine and Wrly component
to low level flow. Bottom line...typical La Nina conditions
will persist over the coming 7-10 days - below normal precip
with significantly fluctuating temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: None.

Today: VFR with generally NW winds 8-11kt.

Tonight: Continued VFR but with incr mid to high clds. NW winds
6-8kt in the eve will bec lgt and vrbl overnight.

Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies