510
FXUS63 KGID 101732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond a few morning shower/storms today, one last night of scattered
  storms, a few potentially severe, is possible with chances
  weighted towards the southern Nebraska and Kansas areas.

- The strongest storms may produce winds around 60 MPH with
  large hail up to quarters possible. The coverage of severe
  storms should be less compared to this past night.

- The rest of the week should be fairly dry with temperatures on
  a gradual rise through Friday. Highs begin in the upper 70s to
  80s, gradually warming back into the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025


This Morning...


A few lingering storms and showers from last night remain in a few
southern Nebraska and north central Kansas areas this morning. In
addition, a few CAMs suggest that some more isolated and likely non-
severe storms could refire along the I-80 corridor, though overall
storm coverage may be more limited than not. Slightly better chances
form mainly showers with a few weaker storms falls towards areas
near and south of the state line. Some locations of localized
flooding could be possible, especially for places that may receive
extended periods of rain on top of what the storms dumped last
night. Up to around 2-3" fell across a few areas from Furnas down to
Northern Rooks and over to Filmore and southern York counties last
night.


This Afternoon through Tonight.


A stationary front across central Kansas up to Eastern Iowa will
stay put today, keeping a broad surface convergence boundary just to
our southwest. Aloft, an amplifying trough sits just to the west of
the area, proving some mid-level PVA forced ascent. These features
could help support yet another night of scattered storms across
portions of the area, likely tracking through a few similar areas as
the storms from the previous night. Most models place these storms
further south, concentrated towards the far southern Nebraska
locations and down into Kansas. Despite some mid-level cooling from
the onset of the trough, cloud coverage today may limit the
instability from returning to the same strength as last nights (CAPE
<2,000 Joules). The presence of a weak jet aloft keeps deep layer
shear modest with sufficient moisture present (mid 60s to low 70s
dewpoints). The severe potential can`t be ruled out again tonight as
a few storms may still produce gusty winds near 60 MPH and
potentially large hail within the strongest storms. The early
morning SPC outlook only includes a marginal risk across a few north
central Kansas places. Timing-wise, a few isolated breakout storms
could form between 6-10PM with the main cluster not reaching our
western edge until just after 9-10PMish. It is possible for storms
and showers to linger through parts of Monday morning. A few areas
of heavy downpours will have to be watched closely for producing a few
areas of flooding.

Besides the precipitation chances this morning/tonight, highs will
continue to stay in the upper 70s to 80s today with the assist from
some cloud coverage and light northerly cool air advecting winds.
Winds will not be expected to gust any higher than 15-20 MPH this
afternoon.


Monday and Beyond...


The main trend for the week will be a gradual warming with highs
expected to warm a few degrees each day through Friday. Highs near
the beginning of the week (upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday) should
reach the 90s by Friday. This warming trend will be the result of
southerly winds returning to the area as well as clearing skies after
Monday. Wind may stay somewhat light to variable Monday and Tuesday,
with more persistent southerlies locking in Wednesday.

Precipitation chances, however, remain out of the discussion until
Saturday night. Limited upper level support from the exiting trough
becoming merely zonal flow, should keep the weather fairly quiet. As
of now, no strong pressure gradient or surface feature/front is
analyzed or expected to impact the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR is the forecast through this evening with light winds
and few-sct cumulus and some highs level cirrus. Tonight,
one more wave will spark some isolated showers and maybe
a thunderstorms to the west/south, which could migrate into
KEAR after midnight. Near sunrise, lower clouds with MVFR
ceilings and some light fog (3-5 miles visibility) will
likely settle in for a while. Winds remain light throughout
the forecast, and somewhat variable in direction overnight
and early Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz