284
FXUS65 KGGW 160750
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
150 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Cold front this morning will turn winds to the north with gusty
  winds expected today. Will start Lake Wind Advisory for Fort
  Peck Lake at 6 am.

* An upper trough will bring cooler temperatures starting today
  and chances for rain today mainly north and west and to areas
  mainly south of the Missouri River tonight and Thursday.

* Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend with dry weather.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A cold front will move through the area this morning ahead of an
upper trough from the Canadian Rockies that will move across
Montana between today night and Friday. North winds behind the
cold front at 07z are north at 20 to 30 mph over western
Saskatchewan and the HREF, RAP and MAV have these winds around 20
mph when they reach Fort Peck shortly after 6 am (12z) this
morning. Will start the Lake Wind Advisory earlier at 6 am and
maintain the same end time of 10 pm this evening.

Chances for rain showers start this morning near the Canadian
Border and spreads to the western zones of the forecast area this
afternoon and then moves to areas south of the Missouri River
tonight and Thursday. Temperatures will be cold enough late
tonight and Thursday for either a rain/snow mix or all snow. With
temperatures 30 to 35 tonight, little or no snow accumulation is
expected. Precipitation chances for the most part move to the
south Thursday night as surface high pressure moves into the
forecast area. Chances for isolated showers will linger into
Friday in some areas. Models and ensembles are taking the deeper
moisture to the south of the forecast area. The NBM probability of
0.10 inch for today, tonight and Thursday remains between 10 and
20% north and 60 and 70% south with this system. Some locations
in our central and NE CWA may see only a sprinkle.

Upper ridge moves into the area on Saturday with dry weather and
warmer temperatures. The next system is set to move in Sunday
Night and will bring chances for precipitation for several days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

For today, increased wind speed as models have 20-30 knot 850 mb
winds and good mixing is expected. Made minor adjustments to pops
today to provide hour to hour consistency. Otherwise, I followed
NBM with no other deviations at this time.

High confidence on the cooler temperatures today with north winds
strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory. Low confidence on any
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z, Wednesday mornings, April 16th.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: A mix of mid level and low VFR clouds are expected
with the cold front around 12z this morning. These clouds will
remain over the area with some breaks today and tonight. Low MVFR
level clouds will stay to the west of the TAF sites today and move
south tonight. Rain showers will remain to the west for the most
part today KSDY and KGDV has a chance of a rain or snow shower
tonight and chances for showers continue around KGDV on Thursday.
Winds: Light and variable early becoming north 10 to 20 knots
between 12z and 15z and north 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts
this afternoon. North winds will diminish to 5 to 15 knots
tonight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern
Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow