071
FXUS65 KGGW 092137
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
237 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Mild and mostly dry conditions will continue through this
   weekend and most of next week.

 - Gusty lake winds are expected following frontal passages on
   Sunday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION:

The only immediate impacts for NE MT from the large low pressure
system moving northward through the central plains are some
lingering clouds in our eastern and southeastern zones. The
resultant back side high pressure ridge and chinooking effect off
the northern Rockies have allowed high temperatures to climb at
least 5 degrees warmer than expected both yesterday and today.

For Sunday, a low pressure trough and cold front from the
Canadian Rockies will cool daily temperatures about 10 degrees and
push through some gusty NW winds. Might be borderline, but I saw
enough support in the varying model data to warrant us issuing a
Lake Wind Advisory for Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
Expecting between 15 and 25 mph sustained, with gusts up to 35
mph. As a weak storm system overall, there just is not enough
moisture and energy to produce anything more than a few sprinkles
and flurries for the higher elevations of central and souther
Montana through early Monday morning.

After a quiet but breezy Monday, the next low pressure trough and
storm system set to impact our region will be on Tuesday with only
light rain accumulations south of MT-Highway 200. The few inches
of snow will be confined again to Montana`s southern mountain
areas.

For the remainder of next week, calmer weather will prevail
Wednesday through Friday. Then, a colder, more active pattern
will arrive by next weekend, with light rain and snow
accumulations possible .

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

For Sunday, I deviated just a bit with wind speeds as recent
frontal passages over the weeks have shown a few stronger gusts
than previously anticipated. It will be a low-end Lake Wind
Advisory, mainly during the day on Sunday. Blended the latest
high-resolution models for precip chances through Tuesday.

Otherwise kept most guidance from NBM in the extended forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...

PATTERN: Chinook effect warming today and cool frontal passage
expected on Sunday with some gusty winds.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR throughout.

WINDS: From the W/NW today around 5 to 10 kts, becoming near calm
tonight. Sunday, a cool front will bring NW winds around 20 kts to
most locations with some gusts up to 30 kts possible.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow