708
FXUS65 KGGW 042158
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
258 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Scattered snow showers will be possible across the area
   overnight. Very little accumulation is expected.

 - Warming conditions are expected through Saturday night with
   daytime highs reaching above freezing for some locations.

 - Saturday afternoon through Monday is the next opportunity for
   precipitation and breezy conditions.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ridge over the Pacific Northwest has been kept at bay for today
and will continue into tomorrow. There is moderate (50 percent)
confidence of snowfall occurring overnight, with high (80 percent)
confidence in less than one inch of snow accumulation with the
overnight shortwave trough that will pass through. The surface
cold front that pushed southwestward will be pushed back
northeastward by Friday. Temperatures will climb above average for
most of the area.

The warmer weather into Saturday night will be replaced by cooler
temperatures as the next disturbance makes its way into northeast
Montana. Current guidance (GFS and ECMWF ensembles) suggests a
strong disturbance will pass through Saturday afternoon into
Monday morning. There is high (60 percent) confidence of rain
changing to snow on Saturday night. There is low confidence on
total precipitation and snowfall amounts at this time.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There is high confidence of less than inch of snowfall occurring
overnight. There is moderate confidence of snowfall occurring
between 9 PM tonight through 6 AM tomorrow morning. There is high
confidence of rain changing to snow on Saturday night, with snow
lingering through Monday morning. There is low confidence on
precipitation and snowfall amounts with this upcoming system. The
only deviation was blending two parts NBM 90 with one part NBM for
winds throughout the entire forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2145Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: Mostly VFR conditions with mid level clouds. A weak
disturbance will bring an opportunity for snow showers between 02Z
and 12Z. There is moderate confidence (50 percent) confidence of
MVFR ceilings and visibility occurring in this time frame. VFR
conditions are expected after 12Z.

WIND: North 5 to 15 kts through 00Z, becoming light and variable.
For KGGW and KOLF, southeast 7 to 15 kts after 02Z. For all TAF
sites, west at 5 to 10 kts after 18Z Thursday.

-Stoinskers


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow