847
FXUS65 KGGW 161935
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
135 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Lows tonight will be near freezing along the ND and parts of the
  Canadian border.

- Next large rain system looks to arrive Sunday afternoon and
  remains over the area through Monday night. Heaviest rain is
  expected to be south of the Missouri River.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Strong northern plains cyclone that brought 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall over far eastern Montana now moving east. Sunshine with
less wind has greeted the western zones this afternoon with the
eastern zones experiencing dry conditions but the wind remains
rather stiff.

Winds will diminish rather quickly this evening allowing the temps
to drop as well, especially where skies can clear. This looks to
occur most likely over the eastern zones. This should allow temps
in these areas and along the Canadian border to drop close to
freezing.

Quasi-zonal flow in place Saturday should allow for a mostly dry
day Saturday but some showers are possible over the western zones.

An upper trough will begin digging into the central Rockies
Saturday Night that will push a rain shield northeast into the CWA
Sunday. Unfortunately, it looks to bring rain to mainly the
western zones, not in the Glasgow area where it`s needed most.

The heaviest rain looks to occur Sunday night. By Tuesday, some
areas along and west of a Malta to Jordan line could end up with
rain totals between 1 and 2 inches.

The position of the upper trough that cuts off over the central
Rockies Monday will determine if the above rain area gets nudged
a bit.

Weak systems will bring a few chances for light showers Tuesday
and beyond.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

With the impacts of a freeze potential tonight, went a bit below
NBM for temperatures.

Fog is a possibility late tonight over the eastern zones given the
recent rainfall, light winds and partly cloudy skies.

The rest of the forecast closely followed the NBM, but did trim
pops in some areas given the current drought, hoping to save face
with our partners and public. TFJ

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 1930z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Mainly VFR.

MVFR ceilings/clouds are moving into ND this afternoon. There is a
very slight chance of fog formation late tonight at KSDY KGDV and
KOLF, otherwise VFR conditions will continue through Saturday.

NW winds will diminish into the evening then light tonight and
Saturday morning. SE winds will increase Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK: Next system to move in Sunday with increasing E-SE winds
and rain. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow