302
FXUS65 KGGW 051947
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
147 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

+++ High Wind Warning will expire at 2pm for Petroleum and
Phillips County. Otherwise, all other zones still have an
expiration of 9 PM tonight, unless canceled earlier. +++

- Red Flag Warning for all but the Little Rockies from now until
  03Z.

- Seasonal temperatures this weekend give way to above normal
  temperatures next week. No precipitation expected.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front has blasted through tonight at an impressive magnitude.
Virga showers brought down widespread wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
as well as an impressive 92 mph gust at the Glasgow Airport which
could very well be an all time record here. Winds will remain
elevated today with a temperature drop of 10 to 20 degrees from
yesterday`s highs which will bring maximum temps closer to
seasonal averages. Although the cooler temperatures will help
recover humidity values a little, minimum humidity values will
range from 25-35% and with the elevated winds remaining area wide,
decided to go ahead and issue a Red Flag Warning for the whole
area with the exception of the Little Rockies.

By Monday the stubborn Southwestern ridge that refuses to leave
the Four Corners region will flex its muscles north again to bring
continued dry weather and temperatures well above early October
averages through all of next week. By the weekend there is a
possibility the next West Coast trough may break down the ridge
and cause a pattern change but models diverge widely on this so
confidence is low and will have to be monitored as the week
progresses.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Went straight NBM 90 on the winds which gave the highest values
and figured with what`s already been going on, that would be the
most appropriate. NBM75 on today`s maximum temperatures as the
region continues to record high temperatures above NBM.

High Confidence on the windy day and cooler temperatures.

Confidence remains high to medium for next weeks dry spell and
above average temperatures.

Confidence is low on possible pattern change next weekend.

-Bernhart/Enriquez


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE: VFR

WINDS: From the NW, gusting as high as 60 kt north of the Missouri
River and east of KGGW. Elsewhere, NW winds will gust as high as
45 kts. Wind dramatically subsides after sunset tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through Sunday AM.
-Bernhart/Enriquez


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and
Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks
including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-
Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-
Wibaux.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow