Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
191 FXUS65 KGGW 060800 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 200 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) A surface trough will help bring a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, mainly north of the Missouri River. 3) Hot weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s to near 100. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A shortwave trough bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms will end by late this morning. Then a small and weak upper level shortwave and surface trough will slide through the area today. CAMs continue to be persistent with an isolated severe wind threat north of the Missouri River with a line of storms extending down from the Canada border. Although a few weak storms may occur earlier in the day, the threat of severe winds is mainly from about 23Z to 06Z. The shortwave trough pattern will end by late tonight. Warmer temperatures ramp up early this week and highs will be in the 90s in most areas Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper ridge over the area. A mainly dry and weak cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will cool highs somewhat on Thursday and Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence of showers and thunderstorms bringing an isolated severe threat north of the Missouri River late this afternoon. There is high confidence of temperatures reaching the 90s to near 100 for many locations by Wednesday. Adjusted pops upward for today into tonight since the NBM was keeping POPs too low for the thunderstorms that are likely to occur later today. Also brought afternoon winds up by utilizing NBM 90 winds. No other changes to the NBM at this time. -Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0900Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, with scattered MVFR. DISCUSSION: A surface trough bringing isolated showers and weak thunderstorms will scoot east into North Dakota to bring precipitation chances to end by 13Z, and MVFR ceilings are expected to hang around between 12Z and 18Z today. There is high (60 percent) confidence of a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through KGGW, KOLF, and KSDY after 00Z Tuesday, bringing with them MVFR conditions. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with these storms. KGDV is expected to be affected by weak thunderstorms around midnight. WIND: Light and variable becoming west at 10 to 17 knots after 16Z. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow