Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
424 FXUS65 KGGW 092048 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 248 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend with highs above 90 expected on Saturday. - Enhanced Fire Weather concerns exist for all of NE MT on Saturday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued. - An active weather pattern develops next week with cooling temperatures and chances for rain, especially beginning on Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will be building into the northern plains over the next few days with hot and dry conditions expected. Temperatures are expected to top out above 90s degrees across much of the region on Saturday with a corresponding relative humidity bottoming out near 10 percent. Drier forecast humidities have led to us issuing a Red Flag Warning. See the Fire Weather discussion below. As early as Saturday evening, pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms will begin over central Montana and could easily push out some gusty downdraft winds into Phillips and Valley Counties. These could be marginally severe and would obviously add to the given fire weather concerns. For Sunday, as the interacting air masses move eastward, marginally severe thunderstorm conditions will relocate to our southeastern zones. Once the entire cooler air mass replaces the entire warmer air mass, the overall weather pattern will favor a wetter and more active period of accumulating rainfall, especially by the middle of next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is above average for hot temperatures this weekend, and enhanced fire weather conditions on Saturday. Confidence is average for repeating showers and thunderstorm chances next week. && .AVIATION... PATTERN: A strong ridge of high pressure is building into the region, pushing away all chances for precipitation through this TAF cycle, although some outflow severe wind gusts may push into KGGW from the west just after the end of this TAF cycle. FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR WINDS: This afternoon and evening, from the E/SE around 10 to 15 kts. Tonight through overnight, from the S/SE around 10 to 15 kts. Saturday, from the SW around 15 to 20 kts. Possible severe W winds for KGGW after 00Z tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong ridge of high pressure will allow for unseasonably hot temperatures and very low humidities across our entire CWA for Saturday. For the last several days of forecasting, each successive model run has incrementally resulted in lower humidities and hotter temperatures. Whereas temperatures and humidities are a bit more certain, the forecast winds are a bit less so, with scattered areas of 10 to 15 kts for many locations. Even though some of these combined conditions are marginal at best, I have made multiple phone calls to BLM dispatch offices, and county fire wardens to ascertain the local fire weather fuel conditions. Every contact made has said the same thing: even though the green-up has occurred, the dry and dead fuels are still standing above, and recent overall dry conditions prevail. Fire weather concerns are high, especially given our forecast for Saturday. And - pun intended - the risk of marginally severe thunderstorms from the west Saturday evening would add fuel to the fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all NE MT Fire Weather zones from 11 AM to 9 PM. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow