735
FXUS65 KGGW 070807
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
207 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front this morning will bring gusty NW winds which will
  persist through Sunday evening.

- Fire Weather concerns are heightened today with low humidity and
  gusty winds. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas near
  and north of US-Highway 2. The low humidity and gusty winds are
  also expected on Sunday.

- A weather pattern change next week will result in more favorable
  conditions for organized thunderstorms, beginning on Tuesday
  evening.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Low pressure system moving across the Canadian Prairies will bring
a cold front through eastern Montana this morning. Gusty NW winds
will develop shortly after sunrise this morning and isolated to scattered
rain showers are expected at times today. Any isolated
thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern half of our CWA.
Precipitation accumulations with this system will be merely
sprinkles or just a few hundredths. Lake Wind Advisory will remain
in effect from 7 am this morning through 10 pm Sunday evening.
Relative humidity will drop to 20 to 25% in most areas north of
the Missouri River this afternoon. with expected winds of at
least 25 mph, will keep Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon
and evening. The NW winds is expected to bring smoke from
wildfires in northern Alberta into NE Montana this afternoon. Not
sure how thick this smoke will be when it reaches NE Montana. Will
mention areas of smoke for now.

While NW winds diminish somewhat tonight, they return on Sunday
and the low RH is expected to cover a larger area. An additional
Red Flag Warning may be needed on Sunday. See Fire Weather
Discussion below.

By Monday, the tight pressure gradient weakens as the upper-level
trough moves more over the Great Lakes Region and a strong upper-
level ridge of high pressure expands over the western states. This
will provide hot and dry conditions from Monday through Tuesday,
but surface winds will be generally light, thus not posing as much
of a fire weather threat.

Tuesday evening and beyond, region-wide conditions set up for
organized summertime thunderstorms, with higher humidity from the
south/southeast and troughing/SW flow moving in from the PAC NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high with the wind forecast this weekend. Confidence
is around average for elevated fire weather conditions over the
weekend. Confidence is low in most areas and average for the
northeast corner of the state, on chances for showers and
thunderstorms today.

Used a blend of hi-res short term consensus to lower min RH and
raise chances for precipitation somewhat today. For Days 2 and
beyond, kept with the given NBM.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A cold front will arrive around 12z this morning with
mid level clouds and gusty NW winds for the majority of today.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible today with the
most frequent showers north of the TAF sites. Skies will clear
this evening.

WINDS: SW 5 to 10 knots early becoming NW around 12z this morning
and increasing to 10 to 20 knots by 15z and 15 to 25 knots with
higher gusts by 18z. NW winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots
tonight and increase to 15 to 30 knots Sunday morning.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty NW winds behind a cold front will combine with RH 20 to 25% today
to create critical fire weather conditions, mainly in zones 120
and 134. Green up has been limited over the western half of zone
120 and most of zone 134 with a dry spring. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms today but the chance of wetting rain
will be less than 10 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
zones 120 and 134 which includes most of NE Montana north of the
Missouri River from noon through 9 pm today.
Low RH and gusty NW winds are expected again on Sunday with the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions especially north
of the Missouri River. Another Red Flag Warning is possible on
Sunday.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT Sunday
for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-
Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow