448
FXUS65 KGGW 190912
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
312 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Dry and breezy conditions present elevated fire weather concern
  today.

* Late Sunday night into Tuesday is the next low pressure system
  which will bring some widespread rain to the region.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A ridge will allow for a quick and sudden rebound in temperatures
and sunshine to start this Easter weekend. Expect highs in the
60s and lows only dropping to around 40 tonight.

The next storm system is a wide open Pacific trough from the
Canadian Rockies, and looks to be fairly slow-moving as well.
Model precip data continues to fall more in line. The initial
frontal passage late tonight into Sunday morning seems to have
scattered rain showers associated with it; but the main event
will be with the deeper trough energy that moves in later,
beginning on Sunday night. The influence of this low pressure will
last through Monday as well, and is expected to lead to
widespread rainfall, with some accumulations of more than
quarter inch and high confidence for most areas getting a wetting
tenth of an inch.

A moderately unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the
region later through next week with no major changes showing up in
ensemble guidance, lending to periodic chances for light rain and
seasonable temperatures.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviated from the NBM to slightly increase rain chances and winds
through Sunday, to refine timing of shower chances forced by a
frontal passage and account for this climatologically windier
period.

Confidence remains high overall on the temperature pattern for
the next several days, while average or medium on measurable
precipitation amounts and timing early next week.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z, Saturday morning, April 19th

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR through 06Z, then MVFR moves in from west.

DISCUSSION: High pressure will give quiet, mostly clear conditions
through this afternoon. A weak cold front will push east this
evening and bring overcast skies. Between 06-12Z tonight, an area
of MVFR ceilings and scattered rain showers likely starts to
impact KGGW and KOLF.

WIND: SE around 10 kts this morning, veering to SW around 15 to
15 kts this afternoon and then toward NW around 10 kts tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

This afternoon has some elevated fire weather conditions in the
forecast, particularly for our northeast zone 120. This is with
winds near 20 mph while RH drops into the upper teens for a few
hours. Limiting factors will be last weekend`s half inch or more
of rain that fell over much of that zone and seasonal temperatures
only topping out in the 60s, after a hard freeze and high RH this
morning. However, this situation will be monitored across the
area today for any increases in wind speed or duration of near-
critical criteria.

-JEZ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow