


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
915 FXUS65 KGGW 152012 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 212 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cool and wet weather will continue at times through Friday, with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible near the MT/ND border. 2) Gusty northwest winds will develop on Friday on the backside of a departing low pressure system. 3) Upper ridging will develop over the region for the weekend with drier and milder weather conditions. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A deep Western U.S. trough and closed low lifting northeast looks to send significant rounds of rainfall across eastern Montana tonight into Friday. While there is notable model spread, NBM continues to support and inch or more of total QPF for eastern locations. The latest HREF 48 hour mean QPF through Thursday night is also in the 1.00 to 1.50 inch range near the MT/ND border with the max ensemble guidance indicating narrow bands in excess of 2" for these areas. Hydrology concerns are not expected given the stratiform and gradual accumulation expected, but be mindful of embedded convective elements leading to locally heavy rainfall at times. On Friday the low will lift to the northeast with showers becoming more isolated. These showers may become enhanced Friday night with a new shortwave dropping southeast Friday night. That said, also look for strengthening northwest winds on the backside of the main low as it lifts to the northeast. A Lake Wind Advisory for the Fort Peck Lake area may be an appropriate consideration for future shifts to make at some point. Over the weekend, ensembles carve out the next ridge pattern building across the Pacific Northwest, extending into Montana. This should result in a warm up in temperatures and drier weather conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM was used this forecast cycle except for small adjustments for collaboration and consistency. Overall confidence is high on cool and wet weather for the next couple of days - though more moderate on precipitation amount given the spread in guidance and potential for embedded thunder locally enhancing rainfall. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: Wednesday October 15 at 2000Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - IFR DISCUSSION: Low pressure will bring rain, steady at times across area terminals leading to reductions in visibility and associated ceilings. Patchy fog may also result in near saturated boundary layer conditions with rain as well as higher elevations with stratus. WIND: East winds at 10 to 20 kts this evening will gradually shift north at 10 to 20 kts on Thursday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow