676
FXUS65 KGGW 011127
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
527 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area today.

- The rest of the week features dry conditions and slightly above
  normal temperatures.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A deepening Hudson Bay low will be the dominate feature across
northern North America through the midweek period. Upper flow
becomes zonal into Montana today as the upper low in the Gulf of
Alaska gets pulled into the Hudson Bay low. Downslope flow will
bring temperatures and winds up today, with low relative humidity
leading to Red Flag conditions again.

Remnants of this wave will push a cold front south into Montana
overnight for temperatures back closer to normal for Wednesday and
Thursday. Late in the week another Gulf of Alaska trough begins
digging south, building up a ridge over the Rockies as the Hudson
Bay low weakens. This will push temperatures back as the Pacific
wave tracks through western Canada and another cold front into
northern Montana. Any cool down looks to be short lived as ridge
rebounds quickly, but expect some breezy conditions on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

With the downslope flow and mixing expected today, did a minor
boost to temperatures and winds by adding some of the NBM90 to
the mix.

Probability for winds above 20 mph is at 40-50% around the east
end of Fort Peck Lake, with the probability of 25 mph winds at 0%.
With the marginal winds, have decided to not go with Lake Wind
Advisory for today.

Chances of measurable rain through the period are very low,
although the second cold front has slightly higher probability on
Friday night.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period occasional mid
to high level clouds moving across the region.

LLWS is expected tonight as strong westerly winds stream across
the mountains and low level winds diminish.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and
Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks
including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow