236
FXUS65 KGGW 222116
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
216 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Diminishing snowfall and calming wind speeds by tonight.

- Another round of snow and blowing snow is expected on Thursday
  night.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The current embedded short-wave trough, in our otherwise NW flow
aloft, responsible for today`s snowfall, is already beginning to
spin out of our region toward the SE. Many locations did have snow
and wind today, but the overall impact was minimal, given the time
of season and visibility reports. Neighboring headlines of
Blizzard warnings to our west and Winter Weather Advisories to our
south were well placed, given their localized stronger winter
conditions and impacts. For NE Montana, an additional trace to
0.2" of additional snow is possible - and maybe another inch on
and near the upslope favored areas of the Big Sheep Mountains and
portions of Wibaux County, this afternoon through the overnight
hours.

Late Thursday night, a larger push of broad low pressure coming from
west-central Canada will bring another round of snow to NE
Montana. Current best estimates show trace to 1 inch amounts -
again, of minimal impact with some light blowing snow.

As this weekend progresses, an upper level rex block pattern sets
up over California and the desert SW, but our region in NE
Montana lies in a completely different and dry flow pattern,
which will give us some chinook warming winds from the west moving
forward early next week, especially Monday and Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

No significant deviations from the NBM overall, for Friday onward,
but had to make significant adjustments to the forecast from now
through Thursday to account for today`s snowfall and expected
progression of the next wave. Model data was not very helpful.

Average to lower confidence on exact snow amounts tonight and
Thursday night.



&&

.AVIATION...

Updated: 2115Z, Wednesday afternoon, Jan. 22nd

PATTERN: A few embedded short-wave troughs in an overall NW flow
aloft will allow for occasional light snow, today through late
Thursday. Blowing snow is possible, but otherwise, impacts will be
minimal.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: MVFR ceilings become VFR Thursday morning,
then back to MVFR late Thursday.

WINDS: NW today 20 to 25 kts and stronger gusts, diminishing to 10
to 15 kts tonight. Thursday, light and variable, setting up from
the SW around 10 to 15 knots later in the afternoon.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow