


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
255 FXUS65 KGGW 090831 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 231 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue through Saturday. - Chances for rain push into northeast Montana Saturday night, with preliminary weekend totals between 0.25" and 0.75", with highest totals in the northwest. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today through Saturday, A strong upper level ridge bringing northwest flow aloft will continue to build over the region, causing above average temperatures and dry weather to much of Montana. Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak on Saturday before the ridge exit eastward. Saturday night into Sunday, An incoming Pacific Northwest trough will deepen and become a greater influence on the weather across NE Montana quickly switching the flow aloft to the SW and pulling in Pacific moisture and weak shortwave lift zones. A surface low will form underneath this flow aloft in response Saturday night and generate a strong cold front on the back side of it. The cold front and areas behind it as it passes will become the focal point for development of rain showers, especially with any shortwave that interacts with it in the SW pacific flow. THis is dragging anywhere from a quarter to 3 quarters of an inch across the NE Montana. The bulk of it will start over central Montana Saturday night but shift eastward late Sunday morning with partial clearing Sunday night. A near 20 degree drop in temps across the board with this front will also provide a strong pressure gradient for strong winds. A Lake Wind Advisory is likely with this passage. Sunday night through Thursday: Cooler conditions will steady out with highs in the 50s. While most periods will be dry Tuesday night into Wednesday is hinting at another shortwave passage in the flow. Ensembles have not decided yet on how the SW flow will set up or progress through Thursday. So this shortwave and any rainfall is low to moderate confidence and subject to change in future forecasts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Little to no deviation from NBM baseline was observed. Confidence is high in temperatures through Saturday. Confidence is high in a Lake Wind Advisory Sunday. Confidence is moderate in post frontal rainfall Sunday morning. Confidence is moderate in temperatures Sunday onward. Confidence is low in rainfall Tuesday night/Wednesday. GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0815Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Clear skies and dry weather continue through the cycle. WIND: Light and N this morning. Veering NE and increasing to 5 to 15 kts this afternoon. Veering E and becoming light again this evening through tonight. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow