632
FXUS65 KGGW 040815
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
215 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
1) Widespread thunderstorm chances are expected this afternoon and
evening with isolated severe in the form of large hail and
damaging wind. Heavy rainfall could also lead to flooding.

2) A marginal risk for severe weather is expected again Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

3) Active pattern will remain in place this week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms continuing at times along with
seasonable temperatures. A trend to cooler temperatures is
expected late week.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected once more this
afternoon and evening, especially across western portions off the
CWA. Severe hours look to be strongest from 4 to 10PM with peak
hours expected around 6 to 8PM. In addition 1.25" PWs are leading
to the chance for heavy rain which could cause rapid flooding over
already saturated ground. After midnight storms should weaken
with mainly rain showers in storm that will last into Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday afternoon, more thunderstorms with isolated severe
chances are expected. SPC has a Marginal Risk outlined across the
northeastern 2/3rds of the CWA. Again, heavy rainfall still
appears to be the primary concern. Cumulative effects of previous
frequent thunderstorms combined with any training could lead to
localized flash flooding.

Midweek and beyond, A brief dry day Wednesday is expected with
the pattern looking to remain active thereafter with frequent
chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting. Zonal to
southwest flow aloft will remain in place during this time leading
to near seasonable temperatures. That said, ensembles begin to
point toward cooler temperatures late in the week.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was followed for this forecast cycle but tweaks were made to
near term PoPs. Confidence remains high on active weather
continuing this week with seasonable temperatures and a cool down
toward the weekend. Lower confidence exists on exact placement of
storms.

GAH



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0730Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Expect a mostly clear morning. Mid afternoon around
21Z, new convection is expected to move in from the west an begin
affecting KGGW and then spread into the other terminals through
the late afternoon and evening hours. SOme of thee storms could
become severe with damaging wind, large hjail and possible
flooding. VFR should hold most of the time but brief IFR/MVFR
could be present in intense downpours from visibility
obstructions. While the SVR potential will go away after
midnight/06Z rains will hang on through Tuesday mroning.

WIND: Light and variable this morning. Becomiong E to SE at 5 to
15 kts this afternoon and evening. Strong erratic wind burst and
directions will be possible near any thunderstorm. Becoming
Variable after midnight.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow