451
FXUS65 KGGW 100911
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
311 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Dense smoke with unhealthy air this morning

- Mostly dry conditions with a warming trend through midweek

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Dense smoke from the fires in northern Saskatchewan continues to move
southeast through the area this morning, with gradual improvements
likely as it spreads out and pushes into the Dakotas. Kept a Dense
Smoke Advisory through noon.

An upper trough developing over central Canada that will put our
area in a northwest flow tonight and Monday. Some instability will
prompt isolated showers, particularly for the northern zones
tonight and eastern zones Monday.

Beyond Monday, temperatures will start turn seasonably warm with
a more stable pattern favoring drier conditions more typical of
August. However, ensembles show some signs of another upper low
moving through the region later next week. This system doesn`t
appear to be as strong as the current one, but confidence and
details should improve as time approaches.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Mainly followed NBM but did add slight chances for showers for
Monday in particular, accounting for the cyclonic flow and
residual instability the NBM isn`t entirely catching. Confidence
is high for dense smoke improving by midday, then medium for
coverage of showers the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR, improving to VFR

DISCUSSION: Smoke this morning brings lingering IFR visibilities
to the TAF sites with slantwise most impacted, with high
confidence for gradual improvements from west to east by 18Z.
Otherwise, look for few clouds and much calmer winds than the past
two days.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Smoke Advisory until noon MDT today for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-
Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-
Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow