Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
594 FXUS64 KFWD 081746 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected today and Wednesday. Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty winds and small hail. - Thursday and Friday should clear out before low rain chances (15-30%) return to the region this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, with highs through the beginning of next week to remain in the low and mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ ...Today and Tonight... A weak upper-level disturbance will slowly drift south across the Great Plains over the course of today. Morning convection in the Central Plains associated with this disturbance has generated a southward moving outflow boundary, serving as a focus point for additional convective development which is already underway this afternoon across portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Further to the south across portions of Southeast and Eastern Texas, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms continue to develop and slowly expand to the north. While these storms should remain east of I-35 and south of I-20, there is much more uncertainty with convective evolution from storms approaching the region from the north. With minimal CIN across Northern TX (sourced from ACARS soundings at DFW and DAL), and weak, yet broad forcing for ascent from the disturbance to the north, it seems probable that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop across much of North Texas within the next couple of hours. In general, the higher rain chances (40-50%) will be east of US-75/I-45 across Northeast Texas. Lower rain chances (15-30%) extend west into the Big Country. These storms should by and large remain below severe limits, but an isolated instance or two of a severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, particularly if a more organized cluster of storms or MCS can move into the region from Oklahoma later this evening. Any potential for severe winds gusts will largely remain north of I-20 and east of US-281. It is also important to note, even though the above scenario is the general consensus amongst short term guidance, there is still substantial uncertainty in exact location, intensity, and evolution of storms today. The vast majority of ongoing storms this evening will dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating. However, there is a very low chance (10-15%) of a stray shower or thunderstorm lingering through the overnight hours as slightly stronger forcing for ascent arrives from the north. ...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night... The Central Great Plains trough is expected to continue its slow progression to the south, with its axis roughly along or just north of the Red River Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnally driven convection will once again develop across much of North and Central Texas by the afternoon hours, with highest precipitation chances (40-50%) across East Texas, diminishing with westward extent (15-30% west of I-35). Storms are not expected to be severe, but as with any summer-time convection, may produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Due to the weak synoptic forcing in place across the region, storms may linger longer into the late evening/early overnight hours compared to storms today. As such, the vast majority of activity should still diminish by midnight tomorrow night. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday through Monday/ Synoptic scale subsidence will build into the region by the end of the week, suppressing diurnally driven convection Thursday and Friday afternoons. Though ridging will build out west, near or slightly below normal heights, and high boundary layer humidity will keep afternoon temperatures near, or slightly below normal (in the low to mid 90s). Peak heat indices will range from 95 to 105 each afternoon. Though medium range guidance trends closer to near-normal temperatures for the weekend, rain chances (20-40%) will also return across the region. As such, there is still substantial uncertainty with high temperatures this weekend onward, which will largely be dependent on how convection develops and evolves during the afternoon and evening hours. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z Tue TAFs/ A somewhat complex convective scenario may unfold across North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening. While the most likely scenario is isolated TSRA (20-30%) across northern Texas through 22Z, there is a low chance (20%) of a more organized complex of storms to move into D10 sometime between 21Z and 01Z. Should this happen, storms would bring N/NE winds (350-050) of 20-40kts with the passage of the gust front. With recent observations showing a band of isolated shower and thunderstorm development across northern D10 and storm motions to the northeast, will introduce VCTS to KDFW and KDAL. Further south, diurnally driven -SHRA/-TSRA is expected to remain just east of KACT, but should be close enough to where VCSH will be retained in the 18Z TAFs. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 75 90 75 94 / 40 20 30 5 5 Waco 89 74 89 74 90 / 30 20 40 5 5 Paris 90 72 89 72 93 / 60 30 40 5 5 Denton 92 73 91 73 95 / 40 10 30 5 5 McKinney 90 74 89 73 93 / 50 30 30 5 5 Dallas 92 76 93 75 95 / 40 20 30 5 5 Terrell 90 73 90 73 93 / 40 30 50 10 10 Corsicana 92 75 92 75 93 / 30 30 50 10 10 Temple 90 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 40 5 5 Mineral Wells 92 72 92 72 95 / 20 10 20 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$