875
FXUS64 KFWD 161852
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
152 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and dry weather is forecast through Thursday
  with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.

- Widespread rain chances return to the region Friday evening
  through the weekend and a few storms could be strong or severe,
  mainly Friday night through Saturday evening. Some locations
  across North Texas may also see periods of heavy rain Saturday
  and Sunday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will arrive towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/
/This afternoon through Thursday/

The broad upper level ridge of high pressure straddling the Plains
States today will shift slightly eastward by Thursday, yielding to
a fast southwesterly flow regime over the region by afternoon.
Patches of cirrus cloudiness will continue to spill over the area
this afternoon. This coupled with fields of scattered fair
weather cumulus will produce filtered sunshine for the rest of
the day. Later tonight, a bank of stratus will be advected
northward into the southern and central counties of the forecast
area. This cloudiness will likely mix out by late morning,
resulting in partly to mostly sunny conditions by afternoon.

Breezy to occasionally windy conditions will prevail from this
afternoon onward through tomorrow, as surface lee troughing
persists over Eastern New Mexico. Wind gusts at times will exceed
25 mph, particularly in areas west of I-35.

The filtered sunshine will retard temperatures this afternoon,
with seasonable highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected.
Subsidence and increased warm advection will facilitate a marked
warming on Thursday, with highs reaching well into the 80s and
even lower 90s in the far western counties.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A period of active weather will unfold this weekend, followed by
a brief lull early next week until another active period begins
mid next week. A few severe storms will be possible, with hail and
damaging winds expected to be the main threats.

On Friday, low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of a
digging mid-level trough near the Four Corners Region. A series of
shortwaves ahead of the parent trough will skirt the region
Friday evening and Saturday. Most of Friday and Friday evening
will be quiet, with only isolated warm advection showers expected.
A dryline will sharpen to our west during the day, but dense
cloud cover will likely prevent destabilization, keeping
thunderstorm development limited. There is still a low chance we
will destabilize enough for isolated storm development Friday
evening, but this is looking increasingly less likely at this
time.

Storm chances will increase late Friday night into Saturday morning,
as storms develop ahead of an approaching surface low and cold
front. This activity will pose a threat for hail and damaging winds,
mainly across the Big Country where storms will have the best
potential of remaining somewhat discrete - at least for a brief
period of time. However, these storms will likely evolve into a
cluster of storms, which will keep the severe threat rather isolated
as they gradually move east/southeast through the remainder of the
night.

On Saturday, the surface low and cold front will lose much of their
momentum, slowing to a crawl as they enter portions of North Texas.
Another weak shortwave will move overhead, and there will be a
potential for a few rounds of storms to develop across the region
throughout the day. Instability remains a bit questionable, which
could limit both storm coverage and intensity. However, a few
severe storms can`t be ruled out, with hail and damaging winds
expected to be the primary threats.

The parent mid-level trough will swing into the Plains Saturday
evening/overnight, giving the slow-moving cold front a reinforcing
push. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
near/along the front and will likely grow upscale into a line of
storms rather quickly. As a result, the severe threat will be rather
limited once upscale growth occurs. The main concern will quickly
transition to heavy rain, as PWAT values will be above the
climatological 90th percentile. The line of storms will gradually
move east/southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning, likely
exiting the region around midday Sunday, concluding our first
period of active weather. Rainfall totals from Friday through
Sunday will range from 1" to 1.5" on average across Central Texas,
and 1.5" to 2.5" on average across North Texas. Isolated (10%
chance) totals up to 3.5" will be possible near and north of I-20.

A brief period of quiet weather will carry us into early next week,
but there is a strong signal amongst ensemble guidance that active
weather will return towards the middle of next week. Otherwise,
expect high temperatures in the 70s and 80s on a daily basis,
with morning lows in the 50s and 60s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/
/18z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and much of tonight, as
upper level high pressure persists. A bank of MVFR stratus will
move northward along the I-35 corridor after 09z Thursday,
yielding BKN ceilings in the 020-025 range at Waco, and
briefly at the DFW and DAL TAF sites between 11 and 15z. Strong
gusty south winds will persist at all TAF sites today through
Thursday, as lee troughing over the Western High Plains creates a
tight pressure gradient across North Central Texas.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  88  67  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  50
Waco                64  88  67  88  69 /   0   0   0   5  20
Paris               62  83  65  84  68 /   0   0   0  20  40
Denton              61  88  64  86  64 /   0   0   0  20  60
McKinney            63  85  65  84  67 /   0   0   0  10  50
Dallas              64  88  67  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  50
Terrell             63  84  66  85  68 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           64  87  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              63  89  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       61  92  64  89  64 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$