312
FXUS64 KFWD 092355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather conditions will continue through the next 7
  days with mild temperatures and no rain expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Evening/

Subsidence in the wake of yesterday`s departing upper low and the
passage of a Pacific front has brought cool, dry, and tranquil
weather for the weekend. Despite the cool air, temperatures will
still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with tonight`s lows ranging
from the mid 40s in the west to the upper 50s in the southeast,
followed by Sunday highs in the 70s. Light winds, clear skies and
recent rainfall may lead to fog formation after midnight as a
surface ridge slides across the region. Will likely add patchy fog
with this forecast package for tonight/Sunday morning, mainly
east of I-35 where temperature/dewpoint spreads will approach
zero. In addition, our front has actually stalled just east of the
forecast area, which may increase the potential for shallow
moisture pooling over East Texas. Any fog will likely be shallow
in nature and dissipate by 10AM, giving way to a sunny Sunday.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 132 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Pleasant and dry conditions are expected as we go into the
upcoming work week as broad upper level ridging generally remains
planted across the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs will peak in
the 70s, with mostly clear skies and humidity minimums in the
40-50% range. While not impacting our sensible weather directly,
Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to swirl around in the
western/central Gulf of Mexico over the majority of this upcoming
week. The cyclonic flow from TS Rafael will influence moisture
transport across Texas and the Gulf Coast, keeping more abundant
moisture further south in response. A shortwave upper level trough
is progged to move across the Central Plains on Wednesday,
shunting the ridge east and pushing a weak cold front south into
North Texas. With the aforementioned lack of moisture ahead of the
front, rain chances will remain negligible as the front slides
into North Texas.

There remains uncertainty on just how far the front moves into
the region before stalling. Long range deterministic guidance is
split, with the GFS stalling the front across North Texas, and the
ECMWF pushing the boundary fully through the region. However,
current cluster analysis leans toward the front making it all the
way through. Nonetheless, the presence of the weak front and the
displacement of the upper ridge will be enough to shave a couple
of degrees off of the high temperatures on Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The shortwave trough will quickly move east over the latter half
of the week as southerly winds return and upper ridging begins to
build in once again over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will
warm in response, nudging back into the mid 70s and low 80s by
next Saturday. Going a bit further out towards the end of this
next weekend, a stouter upper level trough will begin to move
towards the Continental Divide. Minor disturbances ahead of this
system and the return of southerly flow aloft may help to bring
about the return of rain chances, but there is still considerable
uncertainty in exact timing and location. We`ll continue to keep
an eye on future model guidance as this becomes closer in time.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

North winds are in the process of becoming calm to light and
variable as a surface ridge moves over the area. Winds will become
light west Sunday morning, then light north again Sunday evening
as flow around Raphael influences the local pressure gradient.
Will need to keep an eye on any fog which may form over East
Texas, but at this time probabilities of visibility reductions at
any TAF site remain far too low to include in the forecast.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  78  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                50  82  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  76  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              46  77  47  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            48  78  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  78  53  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             49  79  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           54  81  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  83  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  77  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$