Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
512 FXUS64 KFWD 211044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms will develop across the region again today. Most of the activity will be in Central Texas, but there is a low (~20%) chance for storms to develop as far north as the Red River. - This weekend will be rain-free before a strong cold front brings low rain chances and below-normal temperatures to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The early morning radar mosaic shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop across parts of East and Central Texas this morning. Expect this trend to continue through the morning before diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) support diurnally- driven pop-up convection across the region during the afternoon. Given that the CAMs have persistently shown at least a low potential for widely scattered storms as far north as the Red River, have bumped up PoPs slightly (~15-20%) for areas north of the Metroplex. 12 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday Afternoon/ Diurnally-driven convection has diminished, leading to a convectively quiet period across North and Central Texas tonight despite lingering large-scale ascent, remnant boundaries left behind by the previous day`s convection, and the effective frontal boundary sagging slowly south through North Texas. North to northeast flow aloft will persist through Friday as the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region extends into the Northern Plains, allowing weak perturbations to drift along its eastern periphery. For today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as this morning (4-7 AM) where boundaries intersect higher theta-e air, then become more diurnally-driven during peak heating. Coverage should be the highest (with 30-60% PoPs) across Central and East Texas with the Metroplex on the northern edge of today`s rain chances. Similar to previous days, the main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty and erratic outflow winds, and brief heavy downpours from slow-movers or short-lived mergers into larger clusters. By Friday, the increasingly diffuse boundary is expected to be well south of our forecast area. However, this will not be the end of our rain chances with one more round of convection likely south of I-20 where lingering outflow and differential heating persists. A rapid decrease in coverage is expected by the evening as subsidence strengthens on the periphery of the broad surface high centered over the Great Lakes. Cloud cover and rain-cooled air should keep temperatures near to slightly below normal both today and Friday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Areas that are unlikely to see any rain, primarily west of I-35 and north of I-20, may even climb into the mid 90s each afternoon despite being behind the front. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 206 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025/ /This Weekend through Early Next Week/ In the wake of the late week cold front, North and Central Texas will generally be quiet, warm, and rain-free as we remain under the peripheral influence of the upper-level ridge to the west. Temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will be seasonably hot with highs in the mid 90s, while lower humidity keeps heat indices well below the Heat Advisory threshold. On Sunday, a deeper northern-stream trough will dig into the eastern CONUS pushing a stronger cold front through the Southern Plains. Locally, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin increasing Monday afternoon as the front approaches, with persistent northwest flow favoring multiple rounds of convection into midweek. The bigger story will likely be the cooler air arriving behind the front with highs dropping from the low to mid 90s on Monday to the low to mid 80s by midweek. Frontal timing and the magnitude of the post-frontal cooling remain the primary uncertainties, but the current trends favor a notably less August-like start to next week and further suppression of the western ridge. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period with light north-northwesterly winds shifting to become more northeasterly later this morning. Convection allowing models are showing the coverage of today`s TSRA activity should be more isolated than yesterday, with the better chances near and south of Waco this afternoon. Storms are most likely to blossom as we reach the peak heat of the day (~20-21Z) and then dissipate around sunset. Any storms near the fields could produce frequent lightning and erratic wind shifts with gusts in excess of 30 kts possible. Due to continued lower confidence in the exact placement of storms, we will maintain the mention of VCTS at all TAF sites through 00Z. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 93 76 95 / 20 5 5 0 0 Waco 92 74 91 73 94 / 40 20 20 5 5 Paris 92 72 93 70 95 / 20 5 5 0 0 Denton 95 73 94 71 97 / 20 5 5 0 0 McKinney 93 73 93 72 96 / 20 5 5 0 0 Dallas 94 77 94 76 97 / 20 5 5 0 0 Terrell 92 73 93 71 95 / 20 10 10 0 0 Corsicana 93 74 93 73 95 / 40 10 20 0 5 Temple 93 72 92 71 94 / 40 30 30 5 10 Mineral Wells 95 71 93 69 96 / 10 5 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$