431
FXUS64 KFWD 300918
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
418 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1125 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/
/Through Tuesday/

Warm and rain-free weather will prevail to begin the workweek.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s today, while a
diffuse surface pattern results in nearly calm winds. These light
winds and the fairly dry dewpoints still in place will continue
to promote large diurnal temperature ranges, with morning lows in
the 50s and lower 60s. A cold front will move southward into parts
of North Texas on Tuesday, although this feature would be more
adequately described as a surface trough axis given the lack of
any appreciable thermodynamic contrast to accompany its wind
shift. Another afternoon of above normal highs near 90 degrees
will be the result, while slightly more robust northerly wind
fields reinforce the dry airmass already in place.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The quiet weather pattern will continue the rest of the week and
through next weekend with above normal temperatures, plenty of
sunshine, and rain-free conditions. Broad upper level ridging from
the west will expand its influence over North and Central Texas
this week, while northern portions of U.S. maintain more
progressive, near zonal flow aloft. The upper level pattern looks
to become more amplified Day 7 and beyond with another trough
digging across the eastern half of the U.S. This looks to send a
cold front into the region just outside of the current forecast
period, although as expected as we transition into the cooler
season, considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this
system and its associated frontal positioning/strength.

Expect highs to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s each day
this week, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. Overnight lows will be similarly above normal with
temperatures falling into the low and mid 60s. Ensemble guidance
is quite dry through at least the next ~10 days, with only a
handful of any individual members showing any precipitation. This
is reflected by CPC`s 8-14 Day Outlook continuing to favor above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through the
first couple of weeks of October.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1125 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/
/06z TAFs/

VFR and mostly SKC conditions will prevail today and tonight.
Winds will be light and variable around 5 kts or less, although
the predominant direction should be north/northwest for the
majority of the TAF period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  67  91  67  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                92  64  93  65  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               89  62  91  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  62  91  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  63  92  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  66  93  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  64  91  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  63  94  64  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  62  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$