Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
813 FXUS64 KFWD 150551 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday. - A cold front will bring a slight chance of storms Friday night and Saturday, followed by a brief cool-down Saturday night and Sunday. - Warm and dry weather returns early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ We will begin the period with the weather pattern across the CONUS being comprised of upper lows along the West Coast and just off the Eastern Seaboard, with our persistent ridge aloft acting as an omega block in between. The ridge is unseasonably strong, with 500mb heights sitting between 593 and 595 decameters through Wednesday. Fortunately, light east winds and weak cool air advection at the surface will offset the impressive heights aloft. Though another warm day is in store with highs in the 80s, temperatures will be well below record values. A shift in the upper level pattern will begin to take shape Wednesday night through Thursday. The West Coast low will race off to the northeast, but an upper trough will remain in its stead; working its way slowly east into the Rockies and shunting the mid/upper ridge off to the east. The main change that will be felt locally will be a veering and slight strengthening of the surface winds as a lee-side surface low deepens. Hopefully the resulting south breeze will help alleviate the feel of the above-normal October temperatures. 30 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ The upper trough will continue its eastward march through the Rockies Thursday night and Friday, eventually sweeping through the Plains Friday night through Saturday. A lead shortwave will lift northeast across the area Thursday night, but a lack of appreciable moisture will preclude any convection associated with this feature (though a few sprinkles may occur). Better opportunities for convection will accompany the main trough Friday night and Saturday, with activity being focused along an attendant cold front. Moisture content will still be less than impressive, but should be sufficient for the development of scattered showers and isolated storms. Not everyone will receive rain, but the best chances will be east of I-35 and north of I-20 where the higher moisture content will exist, with decreasing chances the farther west and south you go. Unfortunately it doesn`t appear that the rainfall deficit thus far this autumn will see much if any improvement with this particular system. The good news is that following the frontal passage Saturday morning, a nice cool-down can be expected for the rest of the weekend with temperatures much closer to seasonal normals. Low temperatures both Saturday night and Sunday night should be mostly in the 50s, with Sunday highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. A warm-up will ensue on Monday as a ridge quickly strengthens in the wake of the exiting upper trough. The upper level pattern will be a progressive one, however, with another cold front looking likely on Tuesday, and another upper level storm system appearing possible during the latter half of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A surface ridge centered over the Great Lakes will keep light east winds in place through Wednesday night. Winds will veer to the southeast on Thursday, which may require an additional line in the DFW TAF for the morning issuance. High pressure aloft will otherwise maintain VFR and tranquil aviation weather through the end of the TAF cycle. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 87 68 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 60 86 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 58 86 63 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 85 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 58 87 63 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 87 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 87 63 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 61 88 66 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 59 87 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 58 87 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$