599
FXUS64 KFWD 301042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A weak front remains draped across Central Oklahoma with a few
showers and storms along its leading edge. Although most of the
precipitation is expected to remain well north of our region, an
isolated shower or storm will be possible along the Red River
counties this afternoon. Consider yourself lucky if you
experience rain today as most of the region will remain dry.

Minor adjustments were made to today`s forecast to account for the
latest guidance. Heat index values will once again climb above 105
for a large portion of the region. Southerly winds will persist,
generally between 5-10 mph.

There will be another opportunity for isolated showers and storms
tomorrow, this time across our eastern counties. Similar to today,
most locations will remain dry with precipitation coverage maxing
out at 20%.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Mid-level high pressure remains in control across the region
leading to yet another day of above normal temperatures. A Heat
Advisory will remain in effect given much of the region is
expected to experience heat index values of at least 105 degrees
for a few hours this afternoon.

There will be a weak front that will inch southward early this
morning across Oklahoma. Although this front is not expected to
reach North Texas, a few remnant outflow boundaries may move
southward, firing off a few showers or storms this afternoon.
Those along the immediate Red River will have the best rain
chances, generally around 20%.

Tonight, expect warm temperatures once again, with the DFW
Metroplex remaining in the 80s while the rest of the area dips
into the mid to upper 70s.

The heat intensifies slightly as we start a new work week
with widespread triple digit temperatures across the region. In
addition, a few locations may reach heat index values of around
110 degrees. At this time, the 110 degrees heat index looks to be
more isolated in nature. If future guidance shows more widespread
heat index values of 110+, the excessive heat warnings may make a
comeback. Given the heat and plenty of moisture in place, a few
pop-up storms will be possible across East Texas. Coverage should
remain minimal with most locations expected to remain dry.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with
rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite
a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will
keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw
this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect
ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week.

Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge
will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves
into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into
the region and would serve as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is
currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an
eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is
subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring
a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with
high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Across North Texas, VFR and southerly winds are expected through
the next 30 hours. High clouds, remnants of the overnight
convection across Oklahoma, will continue to move across North
Texas. In Central Texas, patchy stratus has developed just south
of the Temple/Killeen area with a gradual northward shift
expected. A mention of brief MVFR has been included in the KACT
TAF to account for this potential. By 15Z, the stratus should
have lifted with VFR taking over the rest of the day.

All TAF sites will continue to experience southerly winds between
10-12 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  82 100  82 102 /   5   0   5   0   0
Waco                97  79  99  79 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               95  77  94  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
Denton             100  79 101  79 102 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            98  79  99  79 101 /   5   5   5   0   0
Dallas             100  82 101  82 102 /   5   0   5   0   0
Terrell             97  78  98  78  99 /   5   5  10   0   0
Corsicana           98  80 100  80 101 /   0   0  10   0   0
Temple              97  77  99  77 101 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      100  78 101  78 103 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$