890
FXUS64 KFWD 162338
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the rest of the
  evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms
  could become severe with primarily a large hail threat.

- Scattered storms will be possible each afternoon and evening
  Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15%
  chance).

- A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to
  near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week,
  with afternoon highs dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Thunderstorms that have developed across portions of North and
Central Texas late this afternoon and into the early evening will
continue to push south and east, the exception being any left
splits that continue to persist. The main threat continues to be
large hail with isolated damaging wind gusts as well. Our special
19z sounding reveals substantial instability and steep lapse
rates, with straight hodographs supportive of splitting
supercells. These storms will have an increased risk for large
hail, with right movers having a low but non-zero threat for
tornadoes given a weakened cap and the availability of surface-
based parcels. This threat is low due to poor low-level shear, but
is worth watching either way. Activity will gradually wind down
with a weakening trend starting around 10-11 PM before
dissipating.

Another, slightly more widespread round of severe weather can be
expected tomorrow across all of North and Central Texas. The main
threats once again will be large to very large hail and damaging
winds, depending on storm mode evolution. There is once again a
low but non-zero threat for tornadoes. The best timing for the
activity tomorrow will be anywhere between 1 PM to 8 PM. For more
details, please see the previous discussion down below this one.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday Night/

Storm chances will gradually wane after sunset as storms continue
moving to the east/southeast this evening. With the parent system
responsible for the stalled boundary well north of our region,
little to no shift is expected to the positioning of this front.
Tonight, expect conditions to remain humid with temperatures
struggling to dip below 70 degrees for a large part of the region.

The aforementioned stalled boundary will once again become the
focus of attention tomorrow. The main difference will be the added
source of lift as a short-wave moves overhead late in the morning
to early afternoon hours.

Similar to today, forecast thermodynamic profiles once again
drive instability above 4500 J/kg within a strongly sheared
effective inflow layer. The stalled boundary will continue to be
the surface feature for thunderstorms to initiate. With the added
forcing for ascent due to the shortwave, storm mode will initially
be supercellular in nature. With upscale growth, supercells will
become clusters of storms with a migration from large hail to
damaging winds as the main threats. There will be slightly more
low-level shear tomorrow, however, the overall tornado potential
will continue to remain low.

Afternoon thunderstorms will diminish closer to midnight as
daytime heating gradually wanes. Unfortunately, the boundary will
move very little and remain draped from northeast to southwest
across North Texas. This will set the stage for additional
thunderstorm development this weekend...additional details listed
below.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025/
Update:
The active weather will continue as we move into a new week.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through Tuesday
before dry weather settles across the region. For details
regarding next week`s forecast, see the discussion below.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday through Thursday/

...Sunday through Monday Night...

On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from
the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong
upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the
Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won`t eject east of
the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak
Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along
the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W
corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm
Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep
layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging
winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado
threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should
quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and
the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion.

On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject
out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface
cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As
the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the
area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma
down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a
very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on
the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main
disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to
develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains
uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any
convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline,
abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess
of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather,
particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the
early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet.
Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this
will be determined by the progression of the upper-level
disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the
daytime hours.


...Tuesday through Thursday...

By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated
thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become
more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like
the front should push east of our area before peak heating and
the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless,
there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to
support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring
for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms
during the early afternoon hours.

Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures
will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in
the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the
upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front,
supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday.


Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Concerns...High potential for VCTS/TSRA, MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Any storms that continue to develop this evening will gradually
move to the south and east through sunset tonight with impacts
continuing for much of the airspace through midnight tonight.
Large hail and gusty winds will be possible, with a low chance for
brief north flow depending on how far south and east the boundary
manages to move. Southerly flow will resume overnight through
tomorrow morning. Up next will be lowering ceilings through the
morning, with low end MVFR favored. There is a low chance for IFR
ceilings as well, scattering out into the mid to late morning.
There is a bit of uncertainty in exact timing and placement for
convection tomorrow afternoon, and this can be further refined in
subsequent TAF issuances overnight.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this
evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  90  72  88  72 /  30  50  20  20  20
Waco                74  92  71  92  72 /  50  40  20  10  10
Paris               66  87  69  85  69 /  30  50  40  20  20
Denton              67  91  69  87  69 /  10  40  20  30  20
McKinney            68  90  70  85  71 /  20  50  30  20  20
Dallas              71  92  72  88  72 /  40  50  20  20  20
Terrell             70  88  71  87  72 /  70  50  30  20  10
Corsicana           73  91  73  91  74 /  70  40  20  10   5
Temple              74  94  71  93  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       68  93  69  91  70 /   5  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ094-
095-103>107-117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$