Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
645 FXUS64 KFWD 052218 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 518 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through the rest of the week, increasing the risk for heat-related illnesses, especially Thursday onward. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Ridging aloft will intensify over the next few days, providing seasonably hot and rain-free weather through midweek. Lows in the 70s with highs in the 90s can be expected, with a few triple digit highs possible west of I-35. The ongoing forecast is in good shape with just a few minor grid adjustments needed with this update. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Subsidence beneath a strengthening ridge will keep quiet weather in place through Wednesday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s today will see a slight increase to the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon, with very little cloud cover and light surface winds offering little relief from the heat. Heat index values will surpass 100 degrees for much of the area, especially Wednesday, but only a handful of areas will see heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). Given this will be very isolated, we will hold off on the issuance of an advisory at this time, though this will likely change later this week. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ The upper level ridge will intensify further as we head into the second half of the week. As a result, the warming trend will persist, with triple digit temperatures increasing in frequency Thursday and especially Friday. Heat index values will likely get into Heat Advisory territory late this week, with values near 105-109 degrees expected for much of the region. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed within the next day or so if the current numbers hold. Heading into the weekend, troughing across the Mississippi River Valley will help break down the upper level ridge to our west or at least weaken it, at a minimum. If these attempts are successful, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal norms over the weekend, with some low rain chances potentially returning early next week, mainly across our southeast. We`ll have to monitor for this pattern change, as it could open the door to rain chances across a greater portion of the region. However, this will depend on how things trend over the next several days. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ North flow aloft around the east flank of a ridge has ushered in some smoke from Canadian wildfires at the mid levels, which will bring minor reductions in slant-range visibility. Otherwise VFR, southeast winds of 5 to 10 kt, and overall quiet aviation weather is expected through the end of the forecast period. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 97 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 73 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 71 96 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 72 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 72 97 74 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 98 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 71 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 71 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$