932
FXUS64 KFWD 052347
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
647 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail through
   Sunday afternoon.

 - A weak cold front Sunday night will mark the return of
   slightly cooler weather, but temperatures will still remain
   near to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

The streak of above average temperatures continues as the upper-
level pattern largely remains unchanged across the Southern
Plains. Early evening surface observations and satellite imagery
show another abnormally warm fall day wrapping up with very light
east-southeasterly winds areawide and a decaying field of cumulus
lingering over the region, despite the upper level ridge in
place. Though low level moisture associated with Tropical Storm
Milton began working inland today, the only rain chances in the
region remained confined to Deep South Texas and the Gulf waters.

Another mild night is on tap for tonight with lows generally in
the 60s, though parts of the Metroplex are likely to hover in the
lower 70s through daybreak. Surface analysis shows a dry cold
front nearing I-70 in Central Kansas. This front remains progged
to move into northern Oklahoma late tonight, likely reaching North
Texas after sunset Sunday. Many areas will see highs near 10 to
15 degrees above normal again on Sunday afternoon despite the
surface winds shifting to the northeast ahead of the front.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

This upcoming work week will feature the continuance of mostly
above-normal temperatures and dry conditions as upper level
ridging dominates the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. However, a weak
cold front progged to move through tomorrow night through Monday
will drop temperatures a few degrees lower than we are currently
experiencing, with expected morning lows in the 50s/60s and
afternoon highs in the 80s to low-mid 90s. A lack of lift and
moisture ahead of and along the frontal boundary will preclude any
chance for rainfall across the region.

TS Milton has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico, and is expected
to further intensify as it advances east/northeast toward the
Florida Peninsula in the coming days. Unfortunately for North and
Central Texas, this eastward movement will mean dry sensible weather
continues, with everyone staying rain-free as we head into the
double-digit days of October.

Our eyes will turn to the end of this week and next weekend as a
digging longwave trough will move towards the Central Plains and
shunt the ridge to our east. This is expected to push a stronger
cold front south through the region, with the potential for a
return of more seasonable conditions and possibly even rain
chances as we head into the following week. There is still quite
a bit of forecast uncertainty at this time range, and model
guidance is split on solutions, so we will not go into details at
this time. All in all, we`ll be hoping for a return of fall-like
conditions as we head into mid-late October and will bring you
more details as the long term forecast gets within range.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the current TAF period
with light southeasterly surface winds becoming variable tonight
through Sunday morning. Winds will shift to the northeast before
18Z with wind speeds increasing to 06-10 KTS through the end of
the period. Sky cover will likely consist of FEW/SCT diurnal
cumulus again Sunday afternoon based near 6-8 kft.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  91  68  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                68  93  66  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               65  91  63  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              65  92  62  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  93  64  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  93  68  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             66  92  64  89  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  94  66  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              66  94  64  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  92  61  90  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$