Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
366 FXUS64 KFWD 120831 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-average temperatures will continue early this week, with heat indices approaching 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. - Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for portions of North and Central Texas on Monday and Tuesday, with better chances south of I-20. - Precipitation chances increase Wednesday and continue through the end of the week. - A cold front arriving Friday looks to bring much cooler temperatures in for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday and Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 A meridional upper-air pattern exists across the CONUS this morning as the remnant circulation of once-Isaias progresses east towards the DelMarVa and an upper-level trough digs towards the Great Basin. Between the two systems, ridging has amplified through the Mississippi Valley, with associated subsidence bringing clear skies and warm conditions to the region. At the surface, 0630Z objective RAP analysis depicts a 1018mb high centered over the northern Gulf, while an inverted tongue of low pressure extends along a baroclinic zone draped northeast from Colorado through the Northern Plains. As the apex of the ridge begins to flatten out and mid-level flow assumes more zonal trajectories across the Rockies, renewed lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will maintain a tightened pressure gradient across the region. As a result, southerly flow will remain gusty through the day on Monday and again on Tuesday, waning overnight as the boundary layer decouples. 07Z buoy observations across the northern Gulf highlight a region of mid to upper-70s dewpoints a few hundred miles off the Texas coast. Return flow trajectories on the western periphery of the surface high in combination with the mass response to the lee cyclone will manifest efficient low-level moisture advection through the Southern Plains. Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon show relatively moist profiles in the mid-levels as a wave of elevated moisture makes its way in from the Pacific, in addition to surface dewpoints holding steady in the low to mid-70s throughout the diurnal mixing cycle as low-level moisture transport continues from the Gulf. All of this is to say that Tuesday is going to be hot (temperatures in the 90s) and humid. Heat indices will approach and may surpass the 100 degree mark. Isolated thunderstorms may develop within a weakly forced WAA regime during peak heating both this afternoon and on Tuesday. Low PoPs have been pulled north towards the I-20 corridor on Monday to account for the moisture profiles and sufficient instability portrayed by forecast soundings amidst weak isentropic ascent. Better chances should remain confined to the Brazos Valley and points north on Tuesday. Any thundershowers that do develop are expected to remain pulse in nature and below severe limits given weak flow, poor mid-level lapse rates, and unimpressive surface T-Td spreads. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 While still a complicated forecast, the global models have come into slightly better agreement regarding the evolution of the western CONUS trough mid-to-late week. On Wednesday, southwesterly southern stream flow will accelerate ahead of the closed upper-level low which is progged to be located somewhere in the Four-Corners vicinity. Adequate height falls/synoptic ascent should remain largely northwest of the area, with any appreciable jet streak dynamics remaining confined closer to the center of circulation. The QPF signal follows suite, remaining northwest of the area through Wednesday. That being said, additional WAA-driven showers will be possible through peak heating on Wednesday. Tuesday`s heat now looks likely to linger into Wednesday, with heat indices once again pushing the triple digit mark. To the east of the trough, a frontal boundary left behind by a surface low traversing the northeastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday will be draped from the central High Plains through the Great Lakes. A shortwave will dive south out of Canada sometime late week, with an associated surface low forcing the residual frontal boundary south as a cold front. This looks to occur sometime in the Friday-Saturday timeframe, bringing precipitation chances with it as it traverses the region. In its wake, temperatures will drop off rather dramatically compared to what we`re having to deal with early this week. As it stands, highs this weekend will top out in the 70s, with lows dropping into the 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the Hill Country and spread north through the morning hours, impacting the Waco terminal by around 12Z. While some of these low clouds will likely make it into the D10 airspace, confidence in BKN coverage is not high enough to invoke formal mention in the 06Z TAF cycle. Observations/trends will be monitored. Southerly flow speeds will increase through the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts expected, waning after sunset. Increasing moisture advection will likely result in more widespread ceiling reductions on Tuesday morning (towards the end of this cycle`s TAF period for DFW). In combination with an increasing signal amongst the guidance, operationally significant impacts appear increasingly likely. If consistency holds, later TAF issuances will address this matter. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 75 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 Waco 91 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 0 Paris 90 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 0 Denton 91 74 94 75 / 10 0 10 0 McKinney 89 72 92 73 / 10 0 10 0 Dallas 91 76 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Terrell 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 91 73 93 74 / 20 10 10 0 Temple 92 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 90 72 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dornsife LONG TERM....Dornsife AVIATION...Dornsife