790
FXUS64 KFWD 121107
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
  west of US-281. An even higher fire weather day will materialize
  on Friday along and west of Interstate 35.

- There is a threat for a few severe storms along and east of
  Interstate 35 late this afternoon and evening. Hail and damaging
  winds are the main threats.

- Isolated damaging non-thunderstorm winds are expected to
  develop Friday afternoon along and west of I-35.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The main changes to the forecast were to further refine the area
where strong to severe thunderstorm potential may materialize.
Since the previous discussion, convective-allowing models have
come into better agreement regarding the strength of the cap. Most
of the models now have a few storms, meaning, it`s looking most
likely that the strong forcing for ascent, coupled with the
cooling air aloft, will be enough for thunderstorm development.

The threats have not changed since the previous discussion...large
hail and damaging winds will be a concern.

A Red Flag Warning in now in effect for areas along and west of
US-281, where dry fuels, relative humidity values below 15% and
wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will materialize. This should set
the stage for dangerous wildfire development conditions, making
it especially difficult to contain given the strong winds. Make
sure to avoid activities that may cause sparks as a single spark
may lead to a wildfire!


Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Evening/

Warm and breezy conditions will be a certainty today throughout
North and Central Texas as high temperatures reach the 80s for a
large portion of the region. There will be two main hazards that
will materialize this afternoon -- isolated severe thunderstorms
east of I-35 and critical fire weather conditions that will
promote rapid wildfire development west of I-35.

The Severe Weather Threat

A potent shortwave, currently atop the Gulf of California, will
continue to progress eastward through the early morning hours.
Ahead of this shortwave, mid-level height falls will begin to
overspread atop North and Central Texas by the early afternoon
hours. As the shortwave inches closer, a surface low will deepen
across Oklahoma, tightening the surface pressure gradient and
turning our morning southerly winds out the southwest by this
afternoon. This wind shift will allow for the development of a
dryline that will shift eastward through rest of the day. As the
dryline meets better moisture along and east of the I-35 corridor,
the expectation is for just a few cumulus clouds to break the cap
late in the afternoon, thus, the amount of total storms will be
low and isolated in nature. Of those storms that do develop, they
will be capable of producing mainly large hail and damaging winds.
The area that will have the highest probability of any
thunderstorm activity today will be east of I-35 and north of
I-20. This area is where strong mid-level forcing will meet with
the best surface convergence and moisture. Thunderstorms will move
east of our region just after sunset as dry air behind the
dryline continues to push eastward.

The Wildfire Threat

As the day progresses, the ongoing southerly winds will become
southwesterly by this afternoon. The surface low across Oklahoma
will cause our wind speeds to increase, at times gusting to near
35 mph. Relative humidity values will drop below 15% west of the
US-281 corridor. With well above normal temperatures and
continued dormant vegetation, the stage will be set for a period
of critical fire weather conditions. For that reason, a Red Flag
Warning will be issued for areas generally along and west of
US-281.

Areas within the Red Flag Warning should take all the necessary
precautions to avoid sparks as rapid fire growth and spread are
expected. The fire weather threat will persist through around
sunset before gradually diminishing as relative humidity values
increase and winds subside slightly.

Tonight and Thursday

As the fire and severe weather threat diminish, we`ll be left
with overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Rapid mid-level height rises behind the departing shortwave on
Thursday will lead to another day of well above normal
temperatures. Highs will be in the 80s with a few 90s within the
realm of possibilities across Central Texas. Although afternoon
relative humidities will dip below 20% once again, wind speeds
will remain fairly low, mitigating the return of critical fire
weather conditions.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

By Thursday night a powerful upper trough will be ejecting out of
Southern California across the Four Corners region and into the
Plains. Ahead of this system, strong surface pressure falls will
be taking place across the Plains with a poleward mass response
resulting in an abrupt increase in southerly winds overnight. By
early Friday morning, an intense surface cyclone with pressures
around 975 mb (near all time minimums for this time of year) will
be centered across southwest Kansas. A 110 kt mid level jet will
be nosing into Northwest Texas by late morning sending a sharp
dryline well east of the I-35 corridor by afternoon. While a bout
of severe weather is expected across the mid-Mississippi Valley,
North and Central Texas will be dealing with dangerous fire
weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Deep vertical
mixing to around 750 mb will mix down stronger winds through the
afternoon as RH values plummet to 10 to 12%. Fine grassy fuels
which haven`t experienced much green up will abruptly dry through
the early afternoon and become highly susceptible to supporting fire
growth with containment efforts likely challenged in the high
winds. A Fire Weather Watch will likely be needed at some point
for Friday.

In addition to the fire threat, strong gradient winds will again
overspread much of the region given the near record low surface
pressures in the Plains. Sustained west-southwest winds between 25
and 35 mph can be expected with frequent gusts above 50 mph. Our
northwest counties will likely again experience intermittent gusts
in excess of 60 mph where high wind watches will also likely be
needed. This system will quickly depart the area early Saturday
with a cold front sliding south through North Texas. Highs will
top out in the lower 70s on Saturday and Sunday with mid level
ridging resulting in mostly sunny skies.

Generally warm and dry conditions are expected through much of
next week with continued fire weather concerns west of I-35 each
afternoon. Another system will swing through the Plains on
Wednesday sending a cold front into the region. Moisture return
will be slow to occur ahead of this system and as of now the
forecast will remain dry.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR is now ongoing across eastern Central Texas, just east of
KACT. The potential for MVFR impacting KACT remains, therefore, it
will be advertised through 16Z. Winds at KACT are out of the
south at this time becoming southwesterly through the rest of the
day.

For North Texas airports, VFR and southerly winds persist. There
will be a dryline that advances across the region this afternoon,
turning our winds out of the southwest. Wind speeds will also pick
up to around 15 knots, gusting to 25 knots. Along the dryline, a
few storms may develop near the I-35 corridor which could impact
air traffic within D10. Overall coverage of thunderstorms will
remain low with storms quickly shifting out of D10 by 00Z.

Beyond 00Z, southwesterly winds will persist with SKC skies in
place.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be requested east of I-35 late this
afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  53  86  60  81 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                86  52  88  60  81 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               79  50  81  58  77 /  20  20   0   0  10
Denton              85  49  84  57  77 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            81  49  82  57  77 /  20  10   0   0   5
Dallas              86  56  87  62  79 /  20  10   0   0   5
Terrell             80  52  83  57  79 /  20  10   0   0   5
Corsicana           83  54  86  60  83 /  20  10   0   0   5
Temple              90  53  92  58  85 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       89  49  89  56  78 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143-156>158.

&&

$$