955
FXUS64 KFWD 271824
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain (70 to 90 percent chance) will develop across
  central and northern Texas late tonight into Friday morning.

- Average rainfall totals through the week will range from 1/2 to
  2 inches with highest rain amounts across central Texas.

- A cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms to the region on Sunday; a few of which could
  become strong or severe with large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

An upper trough, currently across northern Mexico, will continue
to shift eastward through the rest of today. Although large scale
jet dynamics will largely impact areas south of our region through
the day, a much more compact shortwave, currently over West
Texas, will slowly move across our region through the rest of
tonight and into tomorrow.

Latest model and satellite trends continue to suggest that the
deep convection currently across Deep South Texas is continuing to
spread widespread subsidence across our Central Texas counties.
Clouds continue to show a warming trend as they gain latitude,
therefore, precipitation chances have been slightly curtailed
through the early parts of the afternoon. Additionally, this
afternoon`s maximum temperatures were bumped up a few degrees to
account for the ongoing subsidence.

As we approach the latter half of the afternoon and into the
evening hours, the shortwave currently atop West Texas will supply
better forcing for ascent. This will likely lead to the
development of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
Central Texas. There will likely be a competing downward force in
response to the continuing deeper convection across the Gulf
Coast, therefore, severe weather is not anticipated. Precipitation
is likely to originate across Central Texas with a gradual
northward progression tonight. By midnight, showers and a few
isolated storms will be possible along the I-35 corridor, again,
no severe weather is expected.

As the stronger shortwave across the RGV moves along the Gulf
Coast tonight, there will be strong advection of moisture
northward. Better moisture along with mid-level height falls will
lead to continued scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
tonight into tomorrow. The greatest coverage will likely be across
the Brazos Valley to East Texas where the strongest forcing for
ascent will exist.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east tomorrow as the
shortwave continues to shift off to the west. With afternoon
heating leading to a slight increase in overall instability, a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out across our Brazos Valley to
southern East Texas counties. With effective shear slightly below
30 kts and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, a few instances of strong
downburst winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. The overall
tornado potential remains low given SFC-1km shear below 10 kts.

The shortwave will continue its eastward trek, and as a general
rule of thumb, if there is no front associated with a passing
system, we can expect fog to develop in some places across our
region. With dewpoint depressions near 0 and light winds mainly
across Central Texas Friday night, patchy fog has been added to
the forecast through Saturday morning. Any fog that develops will
come to an end by the middle of Saturday morning as low-level
mixing develops.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The latest forecast contains two main weather updates. The first
is to include precipitation chances late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. The second is a decrease Monday`s expected high
temperatures in response to a passing cold front.

Of the available guidance, about 20% of the models now show
showers and thunderstorms developing early Sunday morning. This is
due to a quasi-dryline sharpening overnight and progressing
eastward. Concurrent with the shifting dryline, a slow-moving
front will shift south out of Oklahoma as a shortwave moves atop
our region. Dynamic cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates to
around 8 C/km, yielding between 1000-1500 J/km of elevated
instability. With enough forcing for ascent within a sheared
environment, we`ll have to monitor for thunderstorm development
along and west of the I-35 corridor in North Texas. If
thunderstorms develop, an isolated elevated supercell capable of
large hail cannot be ruled out. We`ll continue to assess this new
development and make changes to the forecast if necessary.

Regarding the cooler temperatures on Monday, the front is now
expected to make it through the entire region by Monday morning.
Highs are now expected to range between the mid 60s in North Texas
to mid 70s in Central Texas.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Rain will end from west to east across North and Central Texas on
Friday evening with only slight to low chance pops east of I-35.
Some patchy fog appears possible on Saturday morning across
Central Texas due to the recent rainfall, near-zero dewpoint
depressions and lighter winds, but low clouds may keep fog
formation minimal. Saturday will be a warm and dry day throughout
the region as a dryline shifts eastward towards I-35 by late
afternoon before retreating. Highs will warm into the low to mid
80s east of Highway 281, but be much hotter in the upper 80s to
low 90s for locations to the west which will be behind the
dryline longer. As the dryline shifts back into West Texas on
Saturday night, some guidance develops isolated convection along
it due to a passing H5 shortwave aloft. Models with a stronger
shortwave such as the GFS develops this convection while guidance
with a weaker shortwave like the ECMWF keep convection isolated
at best. For now, do not have pops for this potential but they
may need to be added in the future.

On Sunday, a deeper trough axis with an associated 70 kt H5 jet
streak will quickly shift out of the Rockies through the Plains.
This is expected to give a strong eastward push to the dryline
with it passing the I-35 corridor by Sunday afternoon. As this
occurs, a stout cold front is also progged to dive southward out
of Oklahoma into North Texas by Sunday evening and reach Central
Texas by Sunday night. Given deep gulf moisture with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to around 70 forecast ahead of the dryline and our
eastern counties lying in the right entrance region of the passing
jet streak, at least isolated storms should develop across our
eastern counties by late afternoon into the evening. Although NBM
pops remain only in the slight chance category on Sunday, 00Z
GFS/ECMWF are notably higher and have gone above NBM pops
accordingly. Forecast soundings for Sunday in our east show
MLCAPE up to 2500 J/Kg along with strong deep layer shear to 60
knots and steep mid level lapse rates. Therefore any storms that
form would have the potential to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Tornado threat appear low as our
CWA will reside well southwest of the LLJ across the Midwest/Mid-
South, and thus low level shear will be weak with forecast
soundings showing less than 100 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH.

Much cooler weather will arrive on Monday behind the cold front,
with lows in the upper 40s and 50s and highs only reaching the
upper 60s and 70s. This brief cooldown will be shortlived as a
broad, intense upper trough takes shape across the western CONUS,
with a classic dryline pattern setting up over Texas. A strong cap
shown on forecast soundings for Tuesday should keep us warm and
dry at least most of the day with highs well into the 80s, but
some isolated convection is possible along the dryline by late
afternoon/evening, mainly in North Texas. A shortwave ejecting
into the Plains on Tuesday night and/or Wednesday could erode the
cap more, which would allow for higher coverage of showers/storms
then - but guidance differs greatly on timing of features this
far out. Regardless, convection both days will have ample
CAPE/shear to work with, so any storms that occur could become
strong or severe both days.

Shamburger

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Mid and high level clouds are gradually moving northward this
early afternoon, currently mainly atop KACT. As we head into the
latter half of the evening, expect MVFR to impact all TAF sites
along with an uptick in precipitation. Precipitation chances will
arrive at KACT first, followed by all of the North Texas TAF
sites. Overall, expect the precipitation to be in the form of rain
showers, however, there is a low chance of an isolated lightning
strike at any of the TAF sites. Given the potential for lightning
is low, the TAF will maintain SHRA with updates to the forecast as
needed.

The MVFR ceilings will deteriorate tonight, gradually becoming
IFR by early tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will likely
persist through the morning hours at all TAF sites. Ceiling
improvements and rain chances can be expected by early tomorrow
afternoon as the system responsible for poor flying conditions
shifts east. Winds throughout this entire TAF cycle will remain
out of the south/southwest, generally around 10 kts. The exception
will be any gusty and erratic winds associated with passing rain
showers tonight through tomorrow.

Once the rain and ceilings improve, expect continued southerly
winds between 10-15 kts through tomorrow evening.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  60  69  62  86 /  30  80  80  20   5
Waco                74  59  71  61  84 /  70  80  70  20   5
Paris               80  59  67  60  80 /  20  60  90  40  10
Denton              80  56  70  59  85 /  20  70  80  10   5
McKinney            80  59  69  60  83 /  20  70  80  20   5
Dallas              81  60  70  62  85 /  30  80  80  20   5
Terrell             80  59  68  61  84 /  40  80  80  30  10
Corsicana           79  61  70  64  86 /  60  80  70  30   5
Temple              72  59  71  61  86 /  80  80  70  20   5
Mineral Wells       82  56  72  59  92 /  30  60  70   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$