Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
644 FXUS64 KFWD 061104 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of flash flooding in parts of western North and Central Texas today. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Wednesday, especially across North Texas. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend with heat index readings of 105-110 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Latest radar shows rain and thunderstorms have blossomed around the upper trough axis across western North and Central Texas this morning, with rainfall estimates as high as 3 inches in Somervell/Bosque Counties. Had earlier added Somervell/Hood Counties into the Flood Watch based on radar trends, and may need to add Johnson County as well although that county has seen far less rain the past week then further southwest. Made some adjustments to pops based on radar but no major changes. Shamburger Previous Discussion: /Today through Monday/ Radar this morning shows the weak upper level low/trough axis that has brought all the rain to North and Central Texas the past several days continues to spin across our southwest counties. Scattered showers have already begun redeveloping near the system, and models/CAMs all indicate numerous showers/storms with potentially heavy rain will continue to develop across our southwest counties into the western Metroplex later this morning and afternoon. Given this, along with the anomalously moist atmosphere of PWATs up to 2.4 inches and potential for several additional inches of rain today, have already expanded the Flood Watch into Erath/Comanche Counties plus extended the watch through 7pm Sunday evening. May also add Hood/Somervell Counties into the Flood Watch later this morning given latest model trends. Unlike yesterday which had little consistency among guidance and thus lower forecast confidence, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF have been consistently highlighting an axis from Mills/Lampasas northeastward to Hood/Somervell Counties for the heaviest rainfall today. Similar to yesterday, these areas may see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 6 inches, which could cause flash flooding in some locations. NBM pops for today are once again too low and have raised them considerably, especially with north/east extent. Widespread clouds and precip will also keep temperatures down today, with highs only in the upper 70s west to low 90s east. Rainfall is expected to diminish by this evening with dry conditions tonight. However, models have trended wetter for Monday across our western and northern counties, especially during the afternoon, and rain chances have been raised considerably. These areas have not seen nearly as much rainfall over the past week as further south, so the need for another Flood Watch for Monday does not currently appear warranted. Highs will be a few degrees warmer areawide for Monday with mid 80s west to low 90s east. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 127 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ 00Z models continue to show an upper level low over the northern Gulf shifting westward into the state, while a strong H5 ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and a secondary ridge develops over the southeast CONUS. Guidance has trended wetter for Tuesday/Wednesday given North and Central Texas remaining in upper troughing aloft between the H5 ridge centers, with low pops over our northern and eastern counties. Temperatures will correspondingly not be as hot as previous forecasts showed, but still toasty in the low to mid 90s. We finally look to dry out from Thursday into the weekend as a broad upper ridge takes hold over the southern CONUS, so end of the week looks dry and hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A few 100s aren`t out of the question, but with the H5 ridge not as strong as previous model runs, the chance for 100s is decreasing. Even so, the hot and humid airmass will drive heat index readings well into the 100s, with widespread 105+ readings possible over eastern half from Thursday through Saturday - and heat advisories may be necessary. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions with VCSH are anticipated at DFW/DAL/GKY this TAF period with bulk of SHRA remaining west of these airports. For FTW/AFW, frequent -SHRA today will bring MVFR conditions through the afternoon. ACT will see VCSH and MVFR/IFR conditions early in the TAF period, with tempo SHRA bringing MVFR late afternoon. South to southeast winds up to 12 knots will continue through tonight. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 75 91 76 91 / 40 5 20 5 20 Waco 86 73 88 73 90 / 40 5 10 5 10 Paris 92 73 93 72 91 / 10 5 20 5 30 Denton 88 73 91 74 91 / 40 5 30 5 30 McKinney 89 73 92 74 91 / 20 5 20 5 30 Dallas 88 75 92 76 93 / 30 5 20 5 20 Terrell 91 73 92 73 92 / 10 5 10 5 20 Corsicana 91 74 92 74 93 / 10 5 10 5 20 Temple 87 72 89 72 90 / 40 5 20 0 10 Mineral Wells 86 73 89 72 91 / 60 10 40 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ130>132-141>144-156>159. && $$