780
FXUS64 KFWD 071938
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
238 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant damaging wind event is becoming more likely Sunday
  evening and Sunday Night across North Texas as a complex of
  storms races through the region. Widespread severe weather is
  expected.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend with heat
  index values up to 105.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
  possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/

An outflow boundary made its way into North Texas earlier this
morning and should stall near the I-20 corridor this afternoon.
Diurnal destabilization will allow for some scattered showers and
storms near both the boundary and a quasi-stationary cold front
north of the Red River. There will be enough instability and deep
layer shear to promote strong to severe storms, with a hail and
wind threat. The tornado threat will remain low as the low-level
wind field are not very supportive of tornadogenesis. The caveat
to this is the lack of large-scale lift, which will limit overall
coverage. The best chances for any overnight precipitation will be
confined to near the Red River and our northeastern counties. Any
lingering activity will dissipate later Sunday morning as the
upper-level shortwave moves off to our east.

North and Central Texas will observe hot and humid conditions
today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 90s.
60-70+ degree dewpoints will push heat index values up to around
105 both today and tomorrow. Our Heat Advisory criteria is high
temperatures of 103+ or heat indices of 105+ for two consecutive
days. There may be a few areas that reach the heat index criteria
today and/or Sunday, but it will be very spotty and isolated in
nature. As such, we will continue to forego any heat headlines.
Nonetheless, make sure to drink plenty of water, and avoid excess
time outdoors in the heat of the afternoon.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

To kick off the new work week, North and Central Texas will be
under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft. Another
shortwave disturbance will move across the Southern Plains Sunday
through Monday, spreading increased lift across an unstable
airmass. Showers and storms are expected to develop mid-late
Sunday afternoon up in the TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma,
moving southeast through the rest of the day. Initially discrete,
storms will have grown upscale into a substantial MCS by the time
it reaches our northwestern counties later in the evening.
Abundant instability between 3000- 4000 J/kg, deep layer shear
around 40-50 KT, and 8 deg/C lapse rates across North Texas will
allow the storms to thrive and maintain intensity as they advance
into North and Central Texas. Damaging wind gusts of 80+ MPH,
large hail, and spin-up QLCS tornadoes will all be possible.
Confidence on a significant wind event late Sunday into Monday is
increasing, however there is still some uncertainty regarding the
exact timing. As of this forecast issuance, the line is expected
to reach our northwest counties around 8-9 PM, the DFW
Metroplex/I-20 corridor between 10 PM - 12AM, and push into East
Texas closer to 1 AM. Additionally, there is uncertainty of the
southward extent of the line into SE Central Texas. This would
have implications on the location of the severe threat in Central
Texas. Ultimately we`ll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when
storms initially develop to glean more defined timing and the
expected system movement. Make sure to stay updated with the
forecast tomorrow, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.

A resulting outflow boundary from Sunday night`s activity looks
to stall across Central Texas on Monday. This will provide a more
focused area for convective development over the first couple days
of the upcoming week. Daily storm chances will prevail through
the end of the week as multiple disturbances move across the
Southern Plains. Highest rainfall chances for next week will be
Wednesday- Thursday as a shortwave amplifies into a closed low
and swings across West Texas and Oklahoma. Strong to severe storms
will be possible during this period, though the deep layer shear
looks to be marginal at best and may inhibit a more widespread
severe threat. We`ll have more specific details like timing as we
get closer to the event.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

An outflow boundary has made its way into the D10 airspace, and
is currently bisecting the DFW Metroplex. Winds behind this
boundary have shifted to the north-northeast, but will gradually
return out of the south later this afternoon. Wind speeds have
been light enough to forego a flow change at the airports. VFR and
southerly winds will then prevail through the rest of the period
with cloud heights around 4 kft. There is potential for isolated
storms late this afternoon into the overnight hours, but this
activity should remain to the north-northeast of D10 and have not
included any VCTS in the 18Z TAF. A surge in MVFR cigs will
blanket Central Texas early tomorrow morning, impacting ACT near
daybreak for a few hours until clouds lift and erode over the
morning.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  70  85  72 /  20  10  80  40  50
Waco                75  95  71  90  72 /   5   0  30  20  60
Paris               70  90  68  83  67 /  50  10  80  50  20
Denton              72  94  68  83  67 /  30  10  80  40  50
McKinney            74  94  69  83  69 /  30  10  80  40  40
Dallas              76  97  71  86  71 /  20  10  80  40  50
Terrell             74  94  70  84  69 /  30  10  70  40  50
Corsicana           76  95  73  87  72 /  10  10  40  30  60
Temple              75  97  74  92  72 /   0   0  20  20  50
Mineral Wells       73  96  68  84  68 /  20  10  70  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$