Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
315 FXUS64 KFWD 121054 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - An elevated grass fire threat will be present for areas near and west of I-35 today. - Warm and rain-free weather will continue through much of this week with a low chance for storms arriving Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/ /Through Tonight Night/ Above normal temperatures will persist as strong upper-level ridging remains firmly in place over the region. Afternoon highs will once again climb into the lower to mid 90s which is 8-15 degrees above normal for mid-October. A modest surface pressure gradient will continue to tighten across North and Central Texas today, producing breezy southerly winds between 10-15 mph through the evening hours. A few gusts up to 25 mph cannot be ruled out. These winds, combined with dry fuels and low afternoon humidity, will result in an elevated fire weather concern -- particularly west of I-35 where fine fuels remain most receptive. Winds will gradually diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating, and the fire potential will subside accordingly. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear with mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/ /Monday Onward/ A broad area of high pressure aloft will dominate the region through much of the upcoming work week, maintaining a dry and warm pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Winds will be lighter Monday and Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient relaxes, resulting in a reduction in fire weather concerns. The ridge will begin to weaken late in the week as a trough develops across the western US, signaling an incoming weather pattern change. By Saturday, the upper trough is expected to advance into the Southern Plains. Southerly flow ahead of this system will bring increasing moisture into North and Central Texas, setting the stage for a potential cold front late in the weekend. Current guidance suggests the front may move through the area sometime Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms. The front`s timing, and attendant rain chances, remains uncertain this far out. Having said that, there is an increasing chance that a cooldown will occur with a return to near-normal temperatures in roughly 8 days. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z/ VFR conditions will continue through today with on and off high clouds moving from west to east later this morning. Winds will be on the rise, becoming gusty this afternoon. Sustained winds between 10-12 kts are expected with gusts closer to 22 kts. Winds will remain out of the south, posing no major concerns to area airports. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 69 89 67 89 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 89 64 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 89 63 88 61 87 / 0 5 0 0 0 Denton 90 65 89 61 88 / 0 5 0 0 0 McKinney 91 65 89 62 89 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 91 69 90 68 90 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 90 63 89 61 89 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 91 65 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 90 61 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 64 90 62 90 / 5 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$