156
FXUS64 KFWD 191111
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms are ongoing this morning. Gusty winds and
  small hail will be the main hazards through the early afternoon.

- Additional severe thunderstorms are expected late Saturday
  afternoon into early Sunday morning. Flash flooding will be
  possible mainly northwest of the Metroplex.

- The active weather pattern will persist through next week with
  additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday. Periods
  of locally heavy rain are also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A line of storms now extends along the I-35 corridor in North
Texas with gusty winds, lightning and periods of heavy rain
continuing. Behind this line, stratiform rain will likely continue
for several hours across North Texas as the overall eastward
progression of this line slows down.

By the early afternoon, the precipitation will likely shift
northward, leaving behind a few hours with minimal precipitation
on the radar. Our next wave of thunderstorms will arrive late this
afternoon. With a stalled front laying across the region, any
convection that develops south of the front will have the
potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Hazards north of this boundary will be large hail and
damaging winds. Additional details regarding this evening`s
weather set-up can be found in the discussion below.

Beyond this afternoon, another line of storms will move from west
to east early Easter morning. As the line approaches the I-35
corridor, it`s likely to diminish in strength. West of I-35,
however, strong to severe thunderstorms will once again develop.

A drying trend can be expected tomorrow afternoon as the system
responsible for the rain pulls away from the region.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday Night/

Over the next 36 hours, an active weather pattern will lead to
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be strong to severe with large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes and flash flooding all possible.

The system responsible for the ongoing thunderstorms across the
state remains across northern Arizona as of this early Saturday
morning. This system will continue to approach from the east,
sending compact shortwaves across the Southern Plains. As each
shortwave moves overhead, showers and thunderstorms will ensue.

The first wave of precipitation has developed across the Big
Country as a line of thunderstorms marches eastward. As this line
approaches our region, thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are
high enough to support a cluster of severe thunderstorms moving
eastward through the early morning hours. With ~2000 J/Kg of CAPE
and effective shear around 50 kts, large hail and damaging winds
will be the main hazards. The tornado threat will remain low with
this new thunderstorm activity, however, it will not be 0.
Instability will gradually wane through the morning hours as the
"cap" strengthens closer to sunrise. Additionally, the shortwave
responsible for the ongoing storms will be shifting eastward,
reducing the amount of overall forcing for ascent.

A stalled boundary will continue to influence our sensible
weather through the rest of the day, aiding in localized low-level
ascent due to the strong warm-air advection. This should keep the
potential for showers and thunderstorms going through the early
afternoon across North Texas.

As the parent upper trough continues to inch closer, more robust
and widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop late
this afternoon. Guidance continues to suggest the highest rain
chances will be along and north of the stalled front as we
approach sunset. Severe weather parameters quickly increase as a
surface low develops along the front. With CAPE values once again
increasing to around 2000 J/Kg, effective shear around 55 kts and
0-1km SRH of around 225 m2/s2, all modes of severe weather will be
possible. A localized tornado potential may materialize near and
west of the I-35 corridor in North Texas as winds gradually
become southeasterly in response to the developing aforementioned
low. This will have to be monitored closely through the day as the
placement of the front and area of low pressure will dictate
where the localized tornado potential may develop.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the potential for flash
flooding will gradually increase across North Texas. Areas with
the highest flooding potential are now in a Flood Watch. Average
rainfall totals in the Flood Watch are expected to range between
2-4", with a 1 in 3 chance of exceeding 5".

The upper trough will push eastward through tonight, sending
several clusters of thunderstorms eastward. The greatest
instability through the night will reside along and west of the
I-35 corridor. Damaging winds and embedded quick spin-up tornadoes
will be possible along the leading edge of the line. Any storm
that remains more supercellular in nature will pose a large hail
threat.

As the line of storms reaches the I-35 corridor closer to sunrise
Sunday, storm intensity will once again diminish with large scale
forcing for ascent becoming removed from the main thunderstorm
activity. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to shift
eastward through Sunday, however, the greatest severe weather
threat will be in the morning hours.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/
/Sunday Night through Saturday/

Most locations will have a brief period of dry weather Sunday
night and Monday. The only exception will be areas in the Brazos
Valley region as they will remain in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. Otherwise, light winds and clear skies are expected
elsewhere on Monday.

The first of a series of disturbances along an active mid/upper
level flow will arrive on Tuesday. At the surface, we will see
the stationary front south of our area retracting north as a warm
front. This will serve as a focus for scattered showers and
storms during the day on Tuesday, increasing in coverage Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are
expected Thursday and Friday as the following shortwaves move
overhead. While not everyone will see rain all day every day,
there will be periods of widespread rain and some will be
moderate or heavy at times. Details about the timing of the heavy
rain and potential flooding concerns will be assessed over the
next few days as predictability and forecast confidence
increases. Additionally, depending on where any surface boundary
settles, there could be an increased risk for severe weather. At
this time, late Thursday and/or Friday appears to be the periods
where highest coverage of storms and perhaps some threat for
strong/severe weather. Beyond this, it looks like more rounds of
rain are possible over the following weekend.

Temperature wise...we will remain near seasonal much of next week
with highs in the 70s/80s, but the lows will be on the warm side
mainly in the 60s each night.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The main concern, and most challenging part of this forecast will
be timing the multiple waves of thunderstorms that will impact the
region throughout the next 30 hours.

A line of storms currently extends from north to south along the
I-35 corridor. Thunderstorm outflow winds have increased to around
35 knots, however, the expectation is for winds to decrease to near
15-17 knots out of the south.

As the line of storms continues to slow it`s eastward progression,
additional rain with isolated lightning strikes will linger
across North Texas. The precipitation is likely to continue
through around 15Z before it lifts north out of the D10 airspace.

Another wave of precipitation looks likely around 01Z with
thunderstorms expected to be more discrete. This activity will
largely remain along and north of the I-20 corridor. Severe storms
are expected to develop with all hazards possible. This wave will
lift north by 04Z, leaving behind MVFR ceilings until the next
wave of precipitation arrives.

The last bout of precipitation is expected to arrive closer to
10Z Sunday as a decaying line of storms moves east. There is
still a great deal of uncertainty on whether this line will hold
together before reaching any of the North/Central Texas TAF sites.
This will continue to be assessed throughout the day and
adjustments to the timing of any precipitation can be expected.


Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested today across North
Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  64  76  56  80 /  90  80  60   5   0
Waco                83  65  79  53  82 /  40  50  60  10   5
Paris               78  65  75  51  78 /  60  70  80  20   0
Denton              76  59  73  48  79 / 100  90  60   5   0
McKinney            77  63  74  51  78 /  90  80  60  10   0
Dallas              80  65  77  55  81 /  90  80  60  10   0
Terrell             81  66  77  53  79 /  50  60  70  10   5
Corsicana           84  68  79  56  82 /  50  40  70  20  10
Temple              84  64  80  54  85 /  40  40  60  10  10
Mineral Wells       79  56  75  49  82 /  80  80  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>093-100>102.

&&

$$