679
FXUS64 KFWD 010742
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
242 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/Trough Tuesday/

Not much change to our sensible weather is expected today compared
to this past weekend as we remain under a strong ridge overhead.
Warm and muggy conditions will persist through Tuesday with the
Heat Advisory continuing throughout much of the region. The
exception is across western portions of Central Texas, where a bit
more afternoon mixing will keep heat index values below 105
degrees, therefore, no heat headlines are in place.

The rest of the region will continue to see heat index values
between 105 to 110 with light southerly/southwesterly winds
persisting. There will be a weak shortwave that will traverse from
north to south along the Texas/Louisiana border, likely leading
to a few showers and storms across East Texas. Overall, the
probability of any afternoon precipitation will remain limited to
20% across our far eastern counties.

Rain chances will diminish after sunset, leaving behind hot and dry
conditions through the middle of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Triple digit heat will continue through the July 4th holiday with
heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees both Wednesday and
Thursday. Heat headlines will continue through mid to late week
for most (if not all) of the region. Fortunately, some relief
from the triple digit temperatures will arrive later in the week.

A weak cold front will slide into the region on Friday as an
upper level trough moves into the Plains. Low rain chances will
return Thursday night and continue through Saturday as the front
serves as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High
temperatures will also drop into the 90s behind the front through
the weekend, bringing a temporary end to our streak of triple
digit temperatures. There is good consensus among ensemble
guidance that the ridge will remain over the western CONUS as we
head into next week. This may keep us in an unusually active
pattern for mid July, with additional chances for showers and
storms.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

Southerly/southwesterly winds and VFR skies will prevail across
North and Central Texas. High clouds continue to stream in from
the east, however, impacts to the aviation community are not
expected.

A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible across East
Texas today. These should remain outside of the D10 airspace,
reducing any potential impacts to North Texas arrivals/departures.


Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 102  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  78 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               97  77  98  78  97 /  20   5   0   0   0
Denton             101  79 102  81 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney           100  80 101  81 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  83 102  83 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  78  99  79  98 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana          100  80 101  81 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              99  77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  77 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$