Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
212 FXUS64 KFWD 040015 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 715 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers remain possible across northeast North Texas this evening. - Another thunderstorm complex will shift south over North and Central Texas early Monday morning into midday Monday. A few storms could contain hail and damaging winds. - Seasonably hot and dry weather resumes by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a remnant outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a MCV-type feature early this afternoon. Expect additional scattered development through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Coverage south of I-20 will remain quite a bit more isolated. Brief, heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds greater than 40 mph will be the primary hazards. We cannot rule out a more robust storm or two this afternoon capable of producing small hail and marginally severe wind gusts. Storm coverage will quickly diminish after 7-8PM this evening. Later tonight, a vorticity maxima will round about the southwestern periphery of an upper-level low settled over northern Missouri leading to the development of another overnight thunderstorm complex in the Southern Plains. The latest suite of high-resolution guidance is in decent agreement that this complex will emerge out of southwestern Oklahoma and dive south-southeast into North Texas after 2-3AM tonight, reaching the Metroplex around or just before sunrise Monday morning. Stronger wind profiles and greater large-scale ascent may promote a higher threat for severe wind gusts and greater system longevity late tonight into midday Monday than today`s complex. With ascent remaining over the area through Monday over a plume of 1.7-1.9" PWATs, additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development will likely take place during the afternoon and early evening with a general decrease in coverage from north to south after 6PM as the mid/upper trough shifts over the SE CONUS. Langfeld && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025/ /Through Monday/ Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a remnant outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a MCV-type feature early this afternoon. Expect additional scattered development through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Coverage south of I-20 will remain quite a bit more isolated. Brief, heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds greater than 40 mph will be the primary hazards. We cannot rule out a more robust storm or two this afternoon capable of producing small hail and marginally severe wind gusts. Storm coverage will quickly diminish after 7-8PM this evening. Later tonight, a vorticity maxima will round about the southwestern periphery of an upper-level low settled over northern Missouri leading to the development of another overnight thunderstorm complex in the Southern Plains. The latest suite of high-resolution guidance is in decent agreement that this complex will emerge out of southwestern Oklahoma and dive south-southeast into North Texas after 2-3AM tonight, reaching the Metroplex around or just before sunrise Monday morning. Stronger wind profiles and greater large-scale ascent may promote a higher threat for severe wind gusts and greater system longevity late tonight into midday Monday than today`s complex. With ascent remaining over the area through Monday over a plume of 1.7-1.9" PWATs, additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development will likely take place during the afternoon and early evening with a general decrease in coverage from north to south after 6PM as the mid/upper trough shifts over the SE CONUS. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ High pressure over the Desert Southwest will expand eastward early in the work week bringing hot and dry conditions back to the region Tuesday through the remainder of the long-term forecast. Temperatures will gradually ramp up through the week with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s by Wednesday or Thursday. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with generally light east-southeast winds. Scattered storms will bring VCTS to D10 in the 10-15Z timeframe and 13-18Z at KACT. Models remain wildly different in coverage and placement of storms, so did not include a tempo group for TSRA during this timeframe for now. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon across parts of North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 89 74 93 77 / 40 50 5 5 0 Waco 74 88 72 92 74 / 10 50 20 10 0 Paris 69 87 70 92 72 / 20 30 5 0 0 Denton 69 90 70 94 73 / 50 60 5 5 0 McKinney 71 88 70 93 73 / 40 60 5 5 0 Dallas 73 89 74 93 76 / 40 60 5 5 0 Terrell 71 89 71 94 73 / 30 50 5 5 0 Corsicana 74 92 74 96 75 / 20 50 10 10 0 Temple 74 93 72 95 72 / 5 40 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 71 92 71 96 72 / 40 40 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$