Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
127 FXUS64 KFWD 280454 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1154 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values near/slightly above 100 are forecast Thursday, which may be among the hottest we`ll see for the remainder of the summer/early fall. - Scattered showers and storms will move southward across the Red River on Thursday, mainly during the evening and overnight hours. There will be a low threat for strong winds and hail. - Chances for showers and storms along with cooler weather return Friday through the holiday weekend with the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Evening convective activity has finally dissipated, and the rest of the night will generally be rain-free, though a stray shower can`t be entirely ruled out near/west of the I-35 corridor. Increased cloud cover and the return of rich Gulf moisture will result in a warmer night across the region, with low temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 70s. Later Thursday morning, a complex of showers and storms in Oklahoma may clip portions of eastern North Texas near the Red River where we`ll carry 20-40% rain chances this morning. By the afternoon, a cold front will be moving into southern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, hot temperatures are expected as winds veer out of the southwest, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the front as it continues into North Texas by Thursday evening. These storms will pose a low threat of strong wind gusts and hail generally along/north of Highway 380. Some of this activity will likely linger into the overnight hours Thursday night as the front continues to slowly move south through North Texas. However, the threat for strong/severe storms should decline rather quickly with the loss of daytime heating following sunset. On Friday, the front will likely bisect the forecast area for much of the day, though it will still be slowly moving southward. This will result in a rather sharp temperature gradient across the region, with highs in the 80s to low 90s north of the front and in the mid to upper 90s south of the front in Central Texas. There will be additional chances for showers and storms, mainly near the front as it enters Central Texas during the afternoon. This activity is not expected to be severe, though gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be possible. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ Active weather will continue this weekend into early next week as northwest flow aloft brings several upper level disturbances into the region. The highest rain chances (40-70% chance) over the weekend will be in Central Texas, but scattered showers and storms will be possible area-wide both days. With that said, it certainly won`t be a wash out, with many locations missing out on the rain entirely. The rain chances and increased cloud cover will keep temperatures well below normal Saturday and Sunday, with afternoon highs largely in the 80s and cool mornings in the mid 60s to low 70s. Rain chances will begin to taper off on Monday, and a slow warming trend will commence as a result. Fortunately, high temperatures should remain below normal in the 80s and low 90s through mid-week, with morning lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Southeast winds near 10 knots tonight will veer out of the southwest later Thursday morning, increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts around 20 knots will be possible late Thursday morning through the afternoon. Outside of a stray shower the rest of tonight, rain-free weather will prevail until late Thursday afternoon or early evening when showers and storms are expected to develop along a cold front as it moves into North Texas. Will keep VCTS at 00Z for now, though timing may have to be adjusted depending on how quickly the front approaches tomorrow. Winds will shift out of the east AOB 10 knots overnight Thursday night, with northerly winds expected just outside of the extended TAF period Friday morning. There is a low chance MVFR ceilings will develop behind the convection/front late Friday night, but given the current uncertainty, there will be no mention in the TAF at this time. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 97 75 90 73 / 5 20 50 40 40 Waco 75 96 77 96 74 / 10 5 20 50 40 Paris 69 90 70 81 69 / 10 70 80 70 40 Denton 75 98 72 89 69 / 10 20 50 40 40 McKinney 74 96 72 88 70 / 5 30 60 50 40 Dallas 78 98 76 92 74 / 5 20 50 50 40 Terrell 74 95 73 89 71 / 5 20 50 60 40 Corsicana 76 97 77 94 73 / 10 10 30 60 50 Temple 73 97 75 96 72 / 10 5 10 40 30 Mineral Wells 74 99 72 91 70 / 10 10 40 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$