Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
996 FXUS64 KFWD 081043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected in eastern portions of North and Central Texas this afternoon. Isolated storm chances will persist in the Big Country Wednesday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 While the upper level ridge overtop the Southern Plains will keep us abnormally warm for early September, a subtle disturbance is progged to move westward around the base of the ridge today. This weakness aloft will work with lingering moisture to promote isolated shower and storm development late this afternoon and evening, mainly for areas east of the I-35/I-35E corridor. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of this activity, however inverted V profiles on forecast soundings are indicative of a threat for gusty winds underneath any decaying storm. PWATs > 2" will also promote efficient rainfall producers. Any storms that develop will decline in coverage with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Outside of any isolated convection, expect another hot and humid day. with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 103. While we will mix out during the afternoon, humidity will still be high enough to push peak heat indices to between 99-108. The Heat Advisory in effect until this evening has been expanded in area further south to encompass our Central Texas counties near and east of I-35 that will likely experience heat indices > 105. The disturbance will push off to our west during the day Wednesday, but a continued weakness aloft will allow for another afternoon of low (10%) isolated shower and storm chances. The area of development for Wednesday is looking to be in the Big Country and surrounding areas to the west, though our Central Texas counties may also see some sea-breeze induced convection. Have brought in some low-end PoPs to account for this potential out west. Once again, gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain would be the main hazards. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Low storm chances will persist on Thursday as the ridge flattens out and the region remains within a weakness aloft. With the ridge somewhat disrupted, a W-E moving shortwave to our north will allow for a cold front to push south across the Plains towards the end of the week and again over this upcoming weekend. While the fronts are expected to remain well to our north, developing isolated-scattered showers and storms may move southward off of the boundary into North Texas on Thursday and again during this upcoming weekend. Additionally, there remains the potential for isolated sea-breeze induced convection for portions of our Central Texas counties. Outside of those low rain chances, expect afternoon highs to remain in the 90s to around 100 through this weekend, though peak heat indices will range between the upper 90s to around 105/106. We`ll continue to monitor for any additional Heat Advisories later this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 VFR and south to southeast winds around 10-12 kt or less will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24-30 hours. There remains a low potential for isolated shower/storm development in East Texas late this afternoon and evening, but most if not all activity will remain east of the TAF sites nearer to the BYP/CQY cornerposts. Will continue to keep the forecast dry for now. However, if a storm were to develop closer to the airports, the main hazards would be lightning and gusty, erratic winds. Any convection nearby will wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, no operational impacts at the airports are anticipated through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 100 80 / 10 10 0 0 Waco 100 78 99 77 / 20 20 0 0 Paris 100 76 99 75 / 20 20 0 0 Denton 101 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 77 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 102 81 101 80 / 10 10 0 0 Terrell 102 76 100 75 / 20 20 0 0 Corsicana 99 77 98 76 / 20 20 0 0 Temple 100 75 99 75 / 20 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater