296
FXUS64 KFWD 011824
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers will continue this afternoon with
  isolated storms possible (20% chance).

- Low storm chances (10-20%) will continue Wednesday through
  Friday for areas near/west of U.S. 281.

- Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and
  heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Wednesday/

Scattered light and mostly elevated showers continue across
portions of western North Texas at midday, extending into our Red
River counties north of DFW. This activity persists within areas
of weak lift, modest moisture convergence, and high precipitable
water. Much of it is also occurring generally along and north of a
lingering boundary that pushed southward through much of North
Texas yesterday evening.

All that said, would expect much of this light precipitation to
continue on a scattered basis through the afternoon hours, with a
steady decrease in areal coverage occurring toward sunset.
Instability is a bit more pronounced along the ragged eastern
margins of the cloud field over Western North Texas, and believe
there is a small chance of additional convective development
occuring generally along the I-35 corridor as temperatures rise
this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are a possibility, though
the chances are pretty low.

Virtually all of the precipitation should cease by this evening,
and a partial erosion of cloudcover should occur overnight. Partly
cloudy and humid conditions - typical of early July - should
dominate North Texas Wednesday, as weak mid-level subsidence
reasserts itself.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Monday/

A narrow ridge of mid level high pressure will remain oriented
over Eastern Texas through the end of the week, providing a moist
southwesterly upper flow across the western portions of our
region. Good deep layer moisture over this area should help
facilitate at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across our far western counties Wednesday through Friday. Partial
cloudiness elsewhere across North Texas should thankfully help
restrain daytime highs from reaching above the mid 90s through the
end of the 4th of July Week.

As we reach the holiday weekend, the mean upper ridge will
retrograde to an axis west of our region. This will limit any
daily rain chances to all except the Red River counties of North
Texas. Afternoon highs will climb incrementally into the mid and
upper 90s, with heat indices once again approaching heat advisory
criteria in some locations by Sunday and Monday of the upcoming
work week.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

A few showers - mostly elevated in nature - will linger across
Western North Texas through 00z, and some of these may just brush
the western parts of D10. Included VCSH in the Metroplex TAFs, and
actually considered the addition of VCTS owing to an increasing
amount of instability present along the I-35 corridor. Believe the
likelihood of any thunderstorms is fairly low, however, owing to
persistent mid/high level cloudiness and precluded mention with
the 18z issuance. This will need to be monitored, however.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites this afternoon
through Wednesday. Considerable mid and high level cloudiness
across D10 should gradually erode tonight and Wednesday, leaving
SCT050 conditions for the most part Wednesday afternoon.

Most of North Texas remains north of a weak surface boundary over
Central Texas. This has resulted in very weak northerly surface
flow across D10, which should linger into the evening hours before
transitioning to light east winds, or perhaps light and variable
conditions overnight and Wednesday morning.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  77  94  76  92 /  20   5  10   5  10
Waco                94  76  94  75  90 /   5   5   5   5  20
Paris               91  72  91  74  91 /  10   5   5   5  10
Denton              92  73  93  74  92 /  20   5  10   5  10
McKinney            92  74  93  75  93 /  20   5  10   5  10
Dallas              95  78  94  77  92 /  20   5  10   5  10
Terrell             92  74  94  74  93 /  20   5  10   5  10
Corsicana           95  77  96  76  94 /  10   5   5   5  10
Temple              95  74  95  74  92 /   5   5  10   5  20
Mineral Wells       92  74  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$