Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
816 FXUS64 KFWD 031119 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 519 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front moving through early Tuesday morning will bring dry and cooler conditions through Wednesday. - After a brief warmup Thursday with a few isolated showers possible in Central Texas, dry and much cooler weather will be seen from Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Latest radar imagery shows a broken line of thunderstorms stretching from Denison to Denton to Glen Rose to Hamilton. Despite favorable instability/shear, this activity has struggled all evening to become strong/severe due to a strong cap as shown on the 00Z FWD sounding, relatively poor lapse rates, and the main forcing shifting well off to the north of our region. With storms now moving east of the instability axis, no additional severe storms are anticipated overnight and the earlier Tornado Watch was allowed to expire. Pops will still be near 100 percent overnight as most areas will see at least some rain, although some locations will get much more than others. Storms are expected to be out of our cwa by mid-morning Tuesday, with a cold front currently near a Sweetwater to Vernon line moving rapidly through the area by midday. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front with a few gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. Highs will be much cooler today versus yesterday ranging from near 70 in our northwest to the mid 70s in our southeast, with lows on Tuesday night dropping into the cool upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures are anticipated for the rest of the week through the weekend. Wednesday will be quite pleasant with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows Wednesday night in the 50s. A brief warmup will ensue on Thursday as southerly winds return ahead of a strong cold front moving through Thursday evening. Enough low level moisture may return northward for a few isolated showers across Central Texas on Thursday, but most if not all areas will stay dry. Afterwards, significantly cooler weather is expected from Friday through the weekend with highs only in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50. Highs look to only reach the 60s to low 70s. Unfortunately, long term guidance shows no notable rain headed our way until perhaps late next week, so our ongoing drought conditions are likely to worsen. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 BKN MVFR cigs will continue to clear Central TX (KACT) from west to east this morning. KACT should be VFR by the start of the 12Z TAF forecast, but there still remains a low chance (10-20%) for brief reductions to BKN 020-030 before 13Z. Otherwise, gusty NW winds 15-25 knots will develop after 15Z at all TAF sites. A few gusts 30-35 kts will be possible (~20% chance), but have gone with more modest gusts to prevail in the TAFs. Winds should weaken below 10 kts after 01Z remaining out of the NW. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 54 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 52 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 75 51 73 49 / 30 0 0 0 Denton 74 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 73 49 72 51 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 75 55 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 75 51 73 50 / 30 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 53 72 54 / 40 0 0 0 Temple 76 52 74 53 / 30 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 48 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Darrah