Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
202 FXUS64 KFWD 181052 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through 8 PM this evening. - Hot and humid conditions along with daily low storm chances are forecast through Tuesday. - Slightly higher storm chances (30-60% chance) and below normal temperatures are forecast during the mid to late week period. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 131 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/ A relative minimum in convection persists late tonight across North and Central Texas, with the only remaining isolated to scattered showers and storms located well west of the area. Slow motions and lingering subsidence on the southern flank of the mid- level ridge should keep this activity west of our counties through daybreak. Lows will be warm, generally in the mid to upper 70s, with urban locations hovering closer to 80 F. For Monday, the recent anomalously humid conditions will continue with PWAT values generally ranging between 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the region. To put these values into perspective, for mid August this range spans from the daily mean (or average) of climatology up to around the 90th percentile. Extreme heating acting on this moist, weakly inhibited air mass will again be the primary driver for convective development this afternoon. High- resolution guidance remains split on coverage, with some members showing very little activity and others depicting widely scattered echoes. In this weakly forced regime, guidance has tended to under-represent the isolated to scattered showers and pulse storms that have developed over the past several days, so low PoPs of 20 to 30 percent will be maintained areawide. The main hazards will be brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and localized outflow or downburst gusts in excess of 40 mph. Slow cell motions will yield highly variable rainfall totals with most spots remaining dry while a few isolated locations pick up a quick one-quarter to one-half inch under a slow mover. This activity should diminish rapidly around sunset with another warm, quiet night to follow. Heat will also continue to be a concern this period. Afternoon dewpoints have once again been trimmed a few degrees below the NBM to reflect the persistent vertical mixing into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will keep most peak heat indices near 100 to 104 degrees, however several locations east of I-35 may see heat index values climb to 105+ degrees during peak heating. No changes are planned to the Heat Advisory that remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. Tuesday will feature a slight uptick in temperatures, likely due to some compressional warming ahead of the weak front approaching from the north. Highs will reach the upper 90s with several areas north of I-20 notching triple digit temperatures. The combination of extreme heating and lingering higher PWATs will again favor isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers and storms in the afternoon and early evening with similar hazards and quick decay by sunset. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 131 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ /Wednesday through Next Weekend/ A weak front is expected to slip into North Texas on Wednesday, then gradually sag south through the region through Friday. This shallow boundary, and any low-level convergence tied to it, should provide a better focus for showers and thunderstorms mid to late week. The highest coverage looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday, with chances steadily tapering off Friday into the weekend as the boundary pushes towards the coast. Confidence is higher in several days of unsettled weather than in the exact placement and timing of the boundary, which will ultimately determine where the greater coverage and any locally heavier pockets of rain occur. Daytime temperatures will settle closer to (or potentially even below) normal as clouds and periodic convection increases through the latter half of the week. Expect highs trending from the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday to the lower 90s and even upper 80s Thursday and Friday. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR will prevail at all terminals through the period with light, generally southerly flow. Speeds will average 6-12 kts with a few modest daytime gusts possible with diurnal mixing. For the Metroplex airports, early morning high-resolution guidance continues to suggest scattered, disorganized convection developing in the vicinity this afternoon. VCTS will be carried in the TAFs from 19-23Z, however confidence in direct terminal impacts remains too low to prevail TSRA. This will be handled with amendments as needed. Any nearby cells could send outflows across the D10 TAF sites, resulting in brief erratic wind shifts or gusts. Waco is expected to remain VFR with light southerly winds. Thunder continues to be less likely in the vicinity of KACT so it will not be included in the TAF. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 80 100 79 96 / 20 10 20 10 50 Waco 97 77 98 77 97 / 20 10 30 10 50 Paris 98 76 100 75 95 / 20 0 10 20 40 Denton 98 76 101 76 96 / 20 10 20 20 50 McKinney 98 77 100 76 95 / 20 10 20 20 40 Dallas 100 81 101 80 97 / 20 10 20 10 50 Terrell 98 76 100 76 96 / 20 10 20 10 40 Corsicana 98 77 99 76 97 / 20 10 20 10 40 Temple 98 75 98 75 96 / 20 10 30 20 50 Mineral Wells 98 74 99 74 95 / 30 10 20 10 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$