Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
864 FXUS64 KFWD 041752 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will continue today. A few storms will contain gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain. - Most showers and storms will dissipate late tonight between 9-10 PM, though isolated activity may linger west of I-35 overnight. - Low rain chances will continue over the weekend, but dry weather and hotter temperatures are generally expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist in portions of Texas through this weekend, particularly across Central and North Texas. A mid-level low is currently located atop Central Texas and the Hill Country, and will continue to slowly meander eastward over the next several days A cluster of showers and storms will persist across our southwestern counties, with more isolated coverage further north and east early this afternoon. Continued weak ascent within a moist and unstable airmass will aid in increased convection coverage across much of the region over the next several hours through the afternoon. Not everyone will observe rain today due to the spotty nature of this activity. For those that end up under or near a storm today - wind shear will be quite lackluster, but enough instability will be present to allow for a few storms capable of gusty, erratic winds and lightning. Additionally, PWATs ~ 2.3" and long, skinny CAPE profiles will promote periods of heavy rain in more developed cells. The threat for flooding is most pertinent for our far southwest, mainly across Mills and Lampasas Counties where 2-3.5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 or so hours. For those with outdoor plans this afternoon and evening, make sure to stay weather aware as even nearby storms could impact your location. Be vigilant if out on the water today - gusty, erratic outflow winds may make boating and other water activities hazardous, even if a storm is not directly overhead. Regarding tonight`s rain chances, coverage of storms will wane over this evening, with most activity dissipating around 9-10 PM. However latest guidance keeps isolated showers and storms possible overnight for areas near and west of I-35, which may impact later fireworks shows. Tomorrow, expect additional development over areas near and west of I-35, with gusty winds. lightning, and brief, heavy rain all possible. Afternoon highs will range between the low 80s out west to low 90s in the east due to continued cloud cover and rain-cooled air. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ Coverage of showers and storms will continually decrease as upper level ridging builds east into the Southern Plains. However, a westward moving inverted trough to our south will allow for isolated rain chances to linger the rest of the weekend into the new week. Ridging will continue to generally dominate our sensible weather the rest of next week, with dry and warming conditions expected. Triple digit temperatures continue to be favored across portions of North Texas towards the end of this upcoming week, with probabilities of 100+ degree highs between 30-60%. Heat indices will also rise, with widespread triple digits expected each afternoon after Wednesday. A good portion of the area could reach Heat Advisory criteria, and heat headlines may need to be issued when we get closer in time. Continue to keep updated with the forecast as we get more details! Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ D10 - Cigs in D10 will keep bouncing between VFR and MVFR over the next hour or two before settling above 4000 ft late this afternoon. An increase in showers near the airports is expected this afternoon, coming to an end closer to 03Z tonight. Have kept VCSH for now as coverage and probability of lightning will be sporadic this far north. MVFR cigs will return around 08Z, lingering through mid-late morning tomorrow before lifting to VFR. South-southeast winds will prevail, outside of any gusty, erratic outflow winds. ACT - Cigs will also bounce between MVFR to VFR early this afternoon, before more widespread MVFR cigs and potentially visibility occur with increased rain showers with very occasional lightning. Rain will linger until late tonight, when skies will lift temporarily back to VFR. There is potential for MVFR cigs to linger, but probabilities are low. MVFR cigs will return in earnest around 03Z, lingering through mid-morning. South-southeast winds will prevail, outside of any gusty, erratic outflow winds. Prater && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 74 88 75 93 / 40 20 20 10 20 Waco 85 72 85 71 89 / 60 40 20 10 10 Paris 88 72 91 72 93 / 20 20 5 5 10 Denton 86 72 88 72 92 / 50 20 20 10 20 McKinney 86 74 90 73 93 / 40 20 10 5 10 Dallas 88 74 89 74 93 / 40 20 10 10 10 Terrell 87 73 91 72 93 / 40 20 10 5 10 Corsicana 89 74 91 73 94 / 50 30 10 5 10 Temple 84 72 86 70 91 / 60 40 40 10 10 Mineral Wells 83 72 87 71 90 / 60 20 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$