976
FXUS64 KFWD 191037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below remain on track, so no notable
changes were needed with this morning`s update other than to
incorporate present observations. Any storms that develop along
the weak cold front in NW Oklahoma this afternoon and evening
should remain well north of the Red River.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Afternoon/

A strong mid/upper-level ridge, currently extending from northern
Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will persist through
the end of the week even as a southern stream upper low prepares
to eject toward the Plains. At the surface, ridging to the east
and southeast will maintain the prevailing onshore low-level flow
yielding unseasonably hot and precipitation-free conditions
through the period. Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher
than yesterday with morning lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime
highs in the mid to upper 90s. With ambient temperatures running
as much as 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s, widespread triple digit heat indices are
expected both today and Friday. A Heat Advisory is not warranted
at this time, owing to the spotty coverage of criteria exceedance.
However, heat safety precautions should still be considered if
heading outdoors over the next few days.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 427 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Friday Night through Next Thursday/

The long-term period features another hot and dry day on Saturday
before a change in the weather pattern brings rain chances and
cooler weather late Sunday into early next week. A strong upper
level ridge will remain in control through Saturday keeping the
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the
95-103 range. Breezy conditions can also be expected as the next
storm system approaches from the west.

A shortwave trough currently near the California coast will make
its way through the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains
on Sunday. The associated surface front should travel from the
TX/OK Panhandle towards our area during the late afternoon or
early evening hours. The latest suite of guidance continues to
show the best potential for widespread showers/storms will stay
well north of our area, but a few locations west of I-35 could see
a few showers and storms late Sunday afternoon and/or evening as
the front enters our region. An unsettled pattern will remain in
place through at least mid-week as a second disturbance moves
across the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday. The combination of abundant
moisture and large scale ascent should give us another opportunity
to see at least isolated to scattered showers/storms during this
period. In addition to the rain chances, we will enjoy some cooler
temperatures from Monday onward with daytime highs mainly in the
80s and lows in the 60s with the exception of a few Central Texas
zones where highs could reach the lower 90s on some days. During
this period, winds will generally be from the north around 5-10
mph.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and light south winds (generally 10 kts or less) will prevail
through the current TAF period as high pressure strengthens
aloft. MVFR stratus spreading northward through Central Texas this
morning should remain south of Waco. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies expected with some fair weather cumulus possible through the
afternoon.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  78  99  78  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  76  98  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               94  73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              98  75  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            98  76  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              99  78  99  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  75  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  76  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              98  75  98  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  74  99  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$