Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
633 FXUS64 KFWD 141044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance of storms this weekend, otherwise above normal temperatures and dry weather can be expected. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/ /Through Wednesday/ The dominance of a mid level ridge will continue to be the primary story in the short-term, with above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through the midweek period. Fortunately, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will not approach any record temperatures. In fact, Waco reached 100 on October 15 of last year. Nighttime temperatures will remain rather pleasant with lows in the 50s and 60s. Despite the dry air and recent lack of rain, light winds should keep the overall fire weather threat in check. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ The ridge will shift east during the second half of the week as a West Coast upper trough works its way slowly east towards the Plains. A lee-side surface cyclone will intensify as the upper trough traverses the Rockies Thursday and Friday, tightening the surface pressure gradient and increasing the southerly low level flow across North and Central Texas. Conditions will become breezy as a result, with south winds increasing to 10-20 MPH with occasional higher gusts. Low level moisture return will be sufficient for the development of low clouds Thursday night and Friday night, but deep layer moisture will be less than impressive when the axis of the upper trough passes through the Southern Plains over the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated storms will still be possible late Friday through late Saturday, with an attendant surface front being a focus for convection, but the limited moisture may keep areal coverage on the conservative side. Will maintain chance to slight chance POPs at this time, with the best chances being east of I-35 where the higher moisture content will reside. Deep layer shear and instability should be sufficient for a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat appears low at this time. The upper trough will continue its eastward trek to the Mississippi Valley while the cold front heads for the Gulf Coast Saturday night through Sunday. This will bring an end to the brief rain chances while dropping temperatures closer to seasonable values to start next week. Despite the passage of the front (and slightly cooler air), however, a ridge will quickly strengthen overhead in the wake of the exiting trough, which will keep temperatures above-normal for the first half of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ East-southeast winds today will back to a more east-northeast direction tonight into Wednesday morning. With speeds limited to 5 to 7 kt, will split the difference and keep one-line TAFs with light east winds in place across the board. High pressure aloft will otherwise maintain a benign weather pattern with VFR expected through tomorrow. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 65 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 88 61 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 87 60 86 58 86 / 0 5 0 0 0 Denton 88 60 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 88 60 87 58 86 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 90 66 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 88 60 87 58 87 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 90 62 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 88 59 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 89 60 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$