769
FXUS64 KFWD 010009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms are expected tonight into Tuesday in North
  Texas, and Thursday and Friday west of US-281.

- Seasonable conditions will continue this week with daily highs
  in the 90s and heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times.

- Triple digit heat is becoming more likely Sunday onward, with
  40-70% chances of 100 degrees or more across much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The early evening radar mosaic shows scattered thunderstorms have
organized along the outflow boundary across central and southwest
Oklahoma with additional convection to our west (south of
Childress towards Midland). Additionally, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing across Central and South Texas in
response to the onshore surge of moisture as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Barry move across Central Mexico. Not much has
changed in the expected evolution of this activity this evening,
with the diurnally driven storms to the south dissipating while
the storms to the northwest push into North Texas over the next
few hours. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty
regarding how far south this activity will make it before it falls
apart. This further complicates Tuesday`s forecast with the
location of the afternoon storm redevelopment dependent on the
remnant outflow boundaries. Minimal changes were made to the
ongoing forecast based on recent high-resolution guidance apart
from adding PoPs across Central Texas this evening as weakening
convection continues.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Tuesday Afternoon/

Expect a warm afternoon, with high temperatures peaking in the
90s and heat indices up to 100-104 across much of the region. A
digging shortwave trough currently near the Dakotas/Minnesota
will continue to move towards the Midwest, shunting a cold front
south through Oklahoma over the rest of today. Closer to us, an
outflow boundary from earlier convection is currently located
across Southern Oklahoma and will continue to move closer to the
Red River this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to continue developing along this outflow through the
early evening, with most activity remaining near and north of the
Red River. Latest CAM guidance continues to be more aggressive
with the showers/storms and resulting cold pool than in previous
days, with most solutions now pushing the outflow boundary and
accompanying storms further south through the I-20 corridor later
tonight. While the highest coverage of storms will remain near and
north of US-380, there is potential for more isolated coverage
further south than initially anticipated. The overall severe
weather threat is on the lower end, though we cannot rule out a
few stronger storms capable of mainly gusty, erratic winds along
the Red River. Small hail and lightning will also pose a threat to
any outdoor activities. Isolated storms will persisting portions
of North Texas overnight, with warm and humid conditions expected
as we head into Tuesday.

The boundary will serve as a focus for more storm development in
North Texas over Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, the location of
any additional lingering outflows will also impact how far south
afternoon convection develops. With the main outflow boundary
progged to be south of I-20, and the CAMs highlighting our
west/southwestern zones with isolated development, have expanded
low 20% PoPs across much of the region tomorrow afternoon, sans
the Brazos Valley. More exact areas of showers and storms will be
contingent upon the actual location of the boundaries, and may
need to be expanded or increased in future forecast updates.
Otherwise, another warm afternoon is expected with highs in the
90s and heat indices reaching into triple digits for most.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Ridging will start to nose east across the Plains midweek,
stunting rain chances. However, disturbances in West Texas will
allow for isolated storms capable of gusty winds near and west of
US-281 Thursday and Friday, which may impact outdoor 4th of July
plans. Ridging will continue to build overtop the central CONUS,
leading to warming temperatures this next weekend into next week.
Triple digit afternoon highs continue to be more favored during
this time, with chances of 100+ between 40-70% across much of the
region (closer to ~30% in the Brazos Valley).

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions prevail with southerly winds between 10-15 kts,
and occasionally higher gusts. A complex of storms has developed
across Oklahoma this afternoon and has been slowly sinking south
towards the Red River over the past several hours. The latest CAM
guidance continues to show these storms approaching the DFW
Metroplex airports before 06Z accompanied by a wind shift to the
north. Apart from gusty, erratic winds in the vicinity of the
storms, wind speeds should generally be less than 10 kts through
the remainder of the period. The most likely window for direct
terminal impacts is between 05-08Z before convective activity
weakens and dissipates. The main challenge in the forecast for
tomorrow is the location of the outflow boundaries left behind by
the morning convection which will determine the location of
afternoon TSRA redevelopment. Opted not to include any mention of
TS in the 00Z TAF package given the lingering uncertainty and lack
of consensus among guidance.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  78  98  78 /  20  20   5   5   5
Waco                73  95  75  95  76 /   5   5   0   5   0
Paris               73  92  74  94  75 /  40  20   5  10   0
Denton              73  94  74  98  76 /  30  20   5   5   5
McKinney            75  93  75  97  76 /  30  20   5   5   0
Dallas              77  96  78  98  79 /  20  20   5   5   0
Terrell             75  95  75  97  75 /  10  20   0   5   0
Corsicana           75  96  76  97  76 /   5  10   0   5   0
Temple              73  96  73  95  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       73  94  74  97  75 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$