Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
747 FXUS64 KFWD 032339 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain will continue mainly across eastern North and Central Texas this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours may cause minor flooding, especially in recently saturated areas. - Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast Sunday as drier air brings decreasing clouds and an end to the rain. - Dry weather will prevail next week with cool mornings and increasing. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Water vapor imagery early this afternoon provides a good look at the upper-level circulation responsible for our recent stretch of wet weather. The circulation is gradually shifting east across the Southern Plains, with a plume of deep moisture wrapping around its eastern flank while notably drier air is already wrapping into West Texas on its backside. This evolution is also becoming apparent on radar, where the more persistent rain has become focused across the eastern half of North and Central Texas while coverage continues to diminish farther west. Rain chances have therefore been adjusted from the NBM to better match current radar trends and the expected eastward progression of the system. The eastern and southeastern portions of the area will remain within a very moist column through the remainder of the afternoon, so pockets of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will remain possible despite very limited instability. This will be more of a rainfall-efficiency problem than a convective one, with a deeply saturated atmosphere capable of producing locally high rain rates beneath the stronger echoes. This is most noteworthy across portions of Central Texas that have received considerable rainfall recently, where additional heavy downpours could result in localized runoff issues. Otherwise, the progressive nature of the upper system and decreasing precipitation coverage should keep the flooding threat localized. Extensive cloud cover and rain will continue to hold temperatures mainly in the 70s to near 80 this afternoon. The transition to drier weather will accelerate on Sunday as the upper circulation moves east and the reservoir of much drier air currently over West Texas spreads into the region on northerly flow. Rain should steadily end from northwest to southeast around or just after daybreak Sunday, although a few showers may linger into Sunday afternoon across the eastern and southeastern counties where deeper moisture will be slower to depart. Increasing subsidence and continued dry-air advection will then allow clouds to gradually clear through the day Sunday. The return of sunshine will support a warmer afternoon despite continued northerly flow, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A quiet weather pattern will settle into North and Central Texas next week as the main belt of westerlies retreats well to our north and weak ridging becomes established across the Southern Plains. The substantially drier air arriving Sunday will remain in place through much of the week, favoring mostly clear skies and a fairly large diurnal temperature range. Overnight lows will generally fall into the 50s and lower 60s early in the week, followed by afternoon highs in the 80s. Gradually increasing heights and temperatures aloft will support a warming trend later in the week, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s by Friday. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase beyond the end of the period as guidance continues to differ on the evolution of tropical moisture to our south. There is presently no clear mechanism to bring that moisture far enough north to affect North and Central Texas through Friday, so the dry forecast remains favored. Trends in the western Gulf and adjacent lower latitudes will bear watching heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Areas of light rain and widespread low clouds prevail across the region this evening and this trend will generally continue through the overnight hours. Light rain will be intermittent with an uptick in coverage expected after midnight. Ceilings have generally been MVFR with heights around 1500 ft but these have trended lower through the evening and widespread IFR cigs around 700 ft are expected late this evening through early Sunday morning. A gradual decrease in precipitation is expected by early morning with cigs improving into the early afternoon. VFR cigs will likely prevail by mid afternoon into the late evening hours on Sunday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 66 84 / 40 30 10 0 Waco 67 81 66 83 / 40 40 10 0 Paris 64 84 61 84 / 40 10 0 0 Denton 65 82 63 83 / 40 20 0 0 McKinney 64 82 62 82 / 40 20 10 0 Dallas 68 82 67 84 / 40 30 10 0 Terrell 65 82 64 82 / 50 30 0 0 Corsicana 66 81 65 82 / 50 40 10 0 Temple 66 82 66 84 / 40 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 63 80 61 83 / 40 30 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Dunn