Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
302 FXUS64 KFWD 301854 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some light rain will return tonight into Monday. The potential for freezing precipitation Monday morning near the Red River remains low with no impacts expected. - Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are expected on Tuesday morning. - Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late this upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Occasionally breezy northerly winds and increasing cloud cover will keep this afternoon well below normal in the wake of yesterday`s strong cold front. Afternoon highs will only be able to peak in the low to upper 40s region-wide, about 15-20 degrees below climatological normal for the last day of November. An incoming shortwave disturbance, currently located overtop Wyoming/Utah/Colorado will continue to swing east-southeast through the Plains over the rest of today into tomorrow. As this shortwave approaches later this tonight, low-level winds will return out of the south and advect warmer, moisture-rich air overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Due to this influx of better moisture, expect continued cloud cover to help keep overnight low temperatures at or above freezing, ranging from the low-mid 30s to around 40. The aforementioned isentropic upglide over the colder surface air will promote light showers beginning overnight tonight, spreading from SW to NE as we head into Monday morning. While the primary precipitation type across our county warning area will be liquid precipitation, we cannot rule out a very brief 1-2 hour window of occasional light sleet or freezing rain near the Red River and our northeastern counties near/just after daybreak Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to highlight a decent elevated warm nose, a very shallow (or nonexistent) refreezing layer just off the surface, and warming temperatures towards the surface. This very borderline temperature profile, coupled with a very short period of at or near freezing temperatures, shows that this is not a great set up for any meaningful winter precipitation. Little to no impacts are expected Monday morning as temperatures will quickly warm above freezing. Expect scattered showers to continue mainly across East Texas Monday afternoon. High temperatures will peak in the mid 30s to around 50, continuing to be 15-20 degrees below normal as we break through the first day of December. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 As the shortwave exits to our northeast Monday night and our showers come to an end, a re-enforcing shot of cold air will plunge temperatures below freezing almost region-wide. Expect low-mid 20s near the Red River, and mid 20s to low 30s elsewhere on Tuesday morning. Wind chills on Tuesday morning will be in the 20s, so make sure to bundle up on your way out the door! We`ll experience a quick warm up back into the 50s and to near 70s midweek as southerly winds return. Our next shortwave will be swinging through the Four Corners by late Wednesday-early Thursday, bringing another surge in moisture overtop the region as we head into the latter half of the week. Expect increasing rain chances as the upper shortwave approaches North and Central Texas late Wednesday onward. Long term deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the system`s cold front moving through late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another period of cooler temperatures to end the week. There is still uncertainty on the breadth of the temperature drop, with around ~53% of ensemble members showing a deeper trough and colder post-frontal surface temperatures. All in all, more details will become available as we get closer in time, so keep updated with the forecast! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Occasionally gusty north winds will gradually begin to veer more northeast throughout this afternoon and evening, as clouds continue to stream overhead. Just after midnight, light rain showers will begin to spread across the region and occur on and off near the airports through the morning push before moving off to the east. Coverage remains too spotty for anything other than VCSH at this time. Winds will continue to veer, becoming more easterly, but remaining below 10 kts. A deck of MVFR stratus will make its way northward overnight through the morning hours, and will be quite slow to lift and exit the D10/ACT airspace. A developing surface high to our north will force winds to shift back out of the north by the late afternoon, and northerly winds will prevail through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 36 42 30 / 0 20 20 10 Waco 46 39 47 31 / 0 20 20 10 Paris 44 33 37 24 / 0 20 40 20 Denton 44 32 42 24 / 0 20 20 10 McKinney 44 33 41 26 / 0 20 30 10 Dallas 45 37 43 30 / 0 20 30 10 Terrell 44 35 42 27 / 0 20 40 10 Corsicana 46 40 46 32 / 0 20 40 10 Temple 47 38 48 31 / 0 20 30 10 Mineral Wells 45 33 47 26 / 0 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater