Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
171 FXUS64 KFWD 062343 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round fog is expected late tonight into Sunday morning across portions of North and East Texas. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning with drier air and breezy conditions behind it. - Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with above normal temperatures expected the rest of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 After a cloudy and/or foggy morning across much of North Texas, it looks like some of these low clouds will linger well into the afternoon hours. This will result in cooler high temperatures, with a few locations along the Red River staying the upper 40s or lower 50s. The rest of area will stay in the 50s and 60s (mainly Central TX) with light southerly winds. Our next cold front is still expected to arrive late tonight into Sunday morning. Latest high-res models are trending toward another round of low clouds and/or fog ahead of the approaching front over portions of North and East TX. This should keep the morning temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s in North TX and upper 40s over in Central TX. The good news is that the post- frontal winds will become breezy by mid-late morning and should lift/scatter out the majority of these clouds. Occasional gusts near 20 to 25 mph are possible in the afternoon. These north winds will keep the daytime highs in the 50s across North TX and low 60s over in Central TX. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night, but the forecast shows sub-freezing temperatures for many locations Sunday night. Make sure to bundle up very well for the morning commute Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Not much has changed in the long-term forecast with a quiet week ahead. After a chilly Monday, a warming trend will take place Tuesday through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to our east and south flow prevails. At the same time, dry northwesterly flow will be in place at the mid-upper levels as a longwave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS. Daytime highs will reach the 60s/70s next Wednesday and Thursday before the next cold front approaches our region. As expected with the systems 6-7 days out, the timing and progression of the front is still uncertain. Cluster analysis show almost 50/50 split between the longwave digging farther south into the southern Plains versus keeping it north of our area. If the models continue to trend toward the first option, we could see another round of cold weather arriving to the region by late week or early next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds and reduced visibilities have improved as of 23z with VFR prevailing the rest of this evening. Overnight, additional low clouds and fog will develop near the TX/OK border and spread southward with a slow-moving frontal zone. This will result in degraded flight categories late tonight into Sunday morning, with periods of IFR/LIFR cigs and vis. The worst conditions should materialize for Metroplex airports between 11-14z before drier air arrives behind the front and results in a fairly quick improvement through the rest of the morning. VFR and mostly clear skies should arrive by the afternoon, with northwest winds increasing to 15G25KT. Similar trends can be expected at Waco with a time delay of 2-3 hours. The post-frontal north winds will subside to 10 kts or less after 00z tomorrow evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 56 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 48 61 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 40 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 38 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 41 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 44 58 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 43 57 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 47 63 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 40 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>121-123-129>131-133-134. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Stalley