Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
185 FXUS64 KFWD 011812 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 112 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds and scattered rain (~20-30%) will continue this afternoon, clearing out by the evening. - High pressure will bring clear skies, dry weather, and near to above average temperatures Sunday through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of the afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 An area of isentropic ascent has set up across the region with light rain ongoing for areas south of I-20 as of midday. A few rumbles of thunder have been observed with this activity over the last few hours, and a few strikes here and there will continue to be possible in Central Texas as this rain shifts south and tapers off through the afternoon. Drier air is starting to move in along the Red River, with an extended period of quiet weather expected to kickoff this evening. As the last of the rain exits and clouds clear out, another chilly night will set up with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will be quiet on the backside of the departing trough, with mid and upper level ridging moving in from the west. Tomorrow will be the last day of any highs in the 60s across the region, with mid 60s to mid 70s expected and south/southeast winds 5 to 10 mph gradually returning at the surface. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 After today, the forecast for the first week of November becomes increasingly warm, with highs transitioning to well above normal the latter half of the extended period. While upper-level ridging will become more zonal mid to late week, mid-level ridging paired with warm, southerly low level flow will be the forcing behind the above normal warmth. Guidance is in good agreement with this, depicting 850 mb temps in the 90th-99th Percentile based on both SPC`s sounding climatology and the NAEFS/ENS climatological percentiles. Highs are forecast in the 80s areawide mid to late week, running about 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms for Wednesday through Friday/Day 7. For context, DFW`s normal high during this time is 70 degrees, with Waco`s normal at 72-73 degrees. Mid 80s are likely for areas west of U.S. 281/the Big Country, and these locations out west also have a ~10-30% chance of highs greater than 90 degrees, particularly Thursday when the warmest temperatures are expected. Some guidance is attempting to bring a dry FROPA southward with a weak disturbance midweek, but this is very unlikely to actually reach any parts of North and Central Texas if it is able to develop. Otherwise, there is a low signal for a system to develop towards the end of the forecast period and beyond; however, this is quite uncertain and the forecast remains rain-free with no pattern change the most likely scenario. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR prevails with a few areas of light rain in the vicinity of KACT this afternoon. Rain has moved out of D10 with no significant aviation concerns through the rest of period. Winds across D10 are variable in direction near 4-6 kts behind the earlier band of precip, and expected to prevail more N/NE this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Winds will gradually shift back to the S/SE around midday tomorrow, with speeds 8 kts or less. Most of the cloud cover is currently clearing out behind the precip, with only a few clouds expected through tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 67 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 43 68 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 37 63 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 38 67 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 39 65 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 45 68 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 40 66 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 43 68 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 42 69 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 40 71 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07