246
FXUS64 KFWD 101035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free weather will
   continue, with near record-breaking heat expected this weekend.

 - The grass fire threat will remain elevated, particularly this
   weekend and early next week.

 - A Columbus Day cold front will bring more seasonable
   temperatures for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor grid edits were made to account for the latest trends,
otherwise expect another unseasonably warm and mostly dry day.
There are a few isolated showers moving south through Oklahoma.
Most of this rain will struggle to make it to the ground due the
dry air mass in place. See previous discussion for more details.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Night/

Generally quiet weather will continue across the entire region,
detailed by unseasonably warm and dry weather conditions for all
of North and Central Texas by early October standards. Afternoon
highs today will range in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. A few
locations out west and across our south may even reach the mid 90s
- putting our forecast highs some 10 to 15 degrees above average.
This coupled with a very dry surface air mass will make it feel
more like an early summer day than an early autumn day.

As for rain chances, most of the area should remain dry -
however, there is a low chance (less than 15%) for a couple of
isolated showers and thunderstorms through this morning. A
shortwave currently located across portions of Nebraska and Kansas
will push south into Oklahoma through the next couple of days.
Low level theta-e advection will also continue across the same
region, reinforcing the low chances for high-based convection
through the late morning hours. Given the dry air mass in place,
it`s highly unlikely that measurable rainfall will make it to the
surface. Most people may only see a slight uptick in cloud cover
through the morning hours and perhaps some virga.

Another low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms will
return again tonight since the same pattern will be in place,
except these low rain chances will be displaced more to the east.
Lows tonight will also be cool, generally in the 50s and 60s.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/
/Friday through Next Week/

The weak disturbance responsible for the mid level clouds and
patchy sprinkles will exit to the southeast during the day Friday,
giving way to strong subsidence associated with a mid level ridge
centered just west of the region. The result will be unseasonably
hot weather for the weekend, with daytime temperatures climbing
well into the 90s (around 15 degrees above normal). Folks with
outdoor plans need to remember to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building. Hot and dry
weather combined with dry vegetation from a lack of rainfall will
also create an elevated threat for grass fires through the
holiday weekend.

The ridge will retrograde early next week as an upper trough
deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. A particularly sharp shortwave
diving south along the western flank of the trough will drag a
cold front south through the Plains, and eventually through North
and Central Texas. The latest guidance points toward Monday or
Monday night for frontal passage, followed by cooler air and more
seasonable temperatures for the midweek period of next week.
Normal temperatures for mid October are lows in the lower to
middle 50s and highs generally 75 to 80. It is possible that we
will see temperatures close to or even below these values, but
there is still some uncertainty regarding the strength of the cold
air push, so will remain conservative with the temperature drop
at this time. Unfortunately, precipitation appears unlikely, which
should keep the rain-free streak going through much of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period with no significant aviation concerns. There are a few
showers moving south through Oklahoma, but this activity will
struggle to make it beyond the Red River. Light southeasterly
winds less than 10 knots will continue through the period.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  66  91  68  94 /   0  10   0   0   0
Waco                93  61  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               86  58  88  61  91 /   0  20   5   0   0
Denton              91  62  92  64  96 /   0  10   0   0   0
McKinney            90  61  91  64  94 /   0  10   5   0   0
Dallas              91  65  92  68  95 /   0  10   0   0   0
Terrell             90  59  91  63  93 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  61  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  59  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       94  63  95  63  96 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$