Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
634 FXUS64 KFWD 111814 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 90s. - Low storm chances will exist for parts of North and Central Texas today through Wednesday, then lingering across parts of eastern Central Texas through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Tuesday afternoon/ Isolated showers and storms are expected around the periphery of our coverage area this afternoon as our area remains wedged between a weak upper level disturbance moving through East Texas and an upper level trough to our northwest. Severe weather is not expected but we cannot completely rule out a storm briefly approaching severe limits. Lightning and gusty downburst winds will be the main hazards, especially with stronger storms. Storms will likely be slow moving, but flooding is not a main concern due to the isolated and small areal coverage of the storms. Highs this afternoon will largely be in the mid 90s. Our attention tonight turns to the northwest where another complex of storms is expected to move southeast from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Hi-res models are inconsistent and indecisive on if this complex will reach North Texas and when, but generally indicate the complex will be weakening if and when it reaches North Texas, and the most likely timing is after 4 am into sunrise. There are hints in several models that this complex will push or leave a weak boundary somewhere across the area tomorrow morning, and that boundary may become a focus for afternoon convection. Regardless of the boundary, scattered showers and storms are more likely Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough approaches the region and assimilates the upper level disturbance over East Texas. Not everyone will see rain tomorrow, but those that do could receive a quick 1/3 - 1/2 inch of rain. Gusty downburst winds and lightning will again be the main hazards with any stronger storms. JLDunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday night through Sunday night/ A broad weakness in the mid-level height field will persist over the Southern Plains Tuesday night as the remnants of the westward- drifting upper low continues to merge into the weak trough embedded within the westerlies. Weak ascent coupled with residual mesoscale boundaries from the day`s convection will likely sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms into the evening. The majority of this activity should fade with the loss of heating, though a few showers could persist through midnight, particularly in adjacent areas along the Red River. Though the consolidated upper trough will begin slowly lifting northeast on Wednesday, lingering subtle height falls and weak ascent will combine with daytime heating and a moist boundary layer to yield another round of isolated to scattered convection. The main window for this activity will likely be between 2-8 PM. Similar to Tuesday, lightning and gusty winds will be the main hazards with any stronger storms. The residual troughing over the Southern Plains is expected to shift northeast on Thursday with low afternoon rain chances confined mainly to parts of Central and Southeast Texas including the Brazos Valley. Subsidence will gradually increase as a Gulf Coast ridge begins to build westward, bringing a slow warming trend late week. Ensemble guidance continues to disagree on the ridge`s eventual amplitude and westward extend, but the current consensus supports highs returning to the upper 90s with a few spots nearing 100 degrees this weekend. Any lingering convection will be limited to our far eastern or southeastern counties along the periphery of the ridge, with most of the area trending hotter and drier by the end of the period. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions are expected today with very similar conditions to the past two days. However, changes are on the horizon for Tuesday. We`ll be watching a complex of storms approach from the northwest late tonight. There is general agreement that surface winds will shift to the west or northwest Tuesday morning, but remain at speeds less than 10 kts. Adjustments will have to be made if this boundary does not make it, or the complex arrives earlier. By midday, winds will likely be light and variable and then eventually become southeast. Scattered convection is expected on Tuesday but confidence in timing is challenging and may largely depend on what happens with the complex of storms. With upcoming model runs, we can hopefully narrow down the best timing for VCSH/VCTS on Tuesday. JLDunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 96 78 95 / 10 10 30 10 30 Waco 95 75 96 76 95 / 10 5 20 10 30 Paris 95 73 94 73 93 / 20 20 20 10 30 Denton 97 74 96 74 95 / 10 10 30 20 30 McKinney 96 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 30 10 30 Dallas 97 77 98 78 96 / 10 10 30 10 30 Terrell 95 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 20 5 30 Corsicana 96 76 96 77 97 / 10 5 20 5 30 Temple 95 74 96 74 96 / 10 5 20 10 30 Mineral Wells 98 72 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$