211
FXUS64 KFWD 221952
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
152 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warmup is expected through the end of the week, with mainly
  tranquil weather expected.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast Saturday night and
  continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1201 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/
/Today and Tomorrow/

High pressure and generally tranquil weather will prevail through
the short-term forecast period. The winds have shifted out of the
south to southwest, but will become out of the north later this
afternoon and tonight when a cold front moves across the region.
The cold front is at the far southern extent of an arctic airmass
moving across the northern CONUS, meaning while the source region
is arctic, it won`t cause a massive cool down like the past couple
cold fronts. In fact, tomorrow`s highs will be similar to today`s,
in the mid 40s to low 50s, but the orientation will shift a bit.
The cooler temperatures today will be across East Texas and warmer
for areas west of I-35. Tomorrow, it will be warmer across East
Texas and cooler across Western North Texas. Low temperatures will
still be cold, or in the mid to upper 20s, areawide. In summary,
no impactful weather is forecast and there will not be a very
noticeable change to the weather between today and tomorrow for
a vast majority of the population.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night and Beyond/

Diminishing winds and clear skies will lead to one more bitterly
cold night Thursday night with temperatures in the 20s across most
of North and Central Texas. Breezy southwest winds will return
Friday as rapid pressure falls occur in the lee of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains over far SE Colorado/NE New Mexico. The source
region of these winds will start rather dry and greater moisture
return will be delayed until late Friday night and Saturday when
low-level flow shifts more south-southeasterly. Therefore,
afternoon RH will plummet into the 15-20% range Friday afternoon
across much of western North and Central Texas as temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 50s. Along with breezy south winds
gusting to 20 mph at times, this environment will support at least
an elevated fire weather threat west of I-35 Friday afternoon and
evening.

A rapid period of moisture return and increased cloudiness will
begin by early Saturday morning with surface dewpoints in the mid
40s to low 50s expected to sprawl across much of the region by
Saturday evening (roughly 30 degrees greater than just 24 hours
before). A shallow cold front advancing southward will interact
with this increasingly moist environment to produce scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms late Saturday evening into Sunday.
The greatest rain chances will reside generally along/east of
I-35 in the deeper moisture. A cool boundary layer will limit the
threat for any severe weather, but steepening mid-level lapse
rates may provide enough MUCAPE for a few stronger cores capable
of producing small hail, primarily Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

The front will likely stall south of our forecast area keeping any
low rain chances Monday into Tuesday primarily across our Central
Texas and Brazos Valley counties. Longer-range ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to highlight the potential for a
more potent storm system to enter the Plains by the middle of next
week. This could bring a more widespread round of rainfall, some
heavy, to much of the region. We will continue to monitor this
potential in the coming days.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1201 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Slightly gusty S-SW flow will continue for the next few hours.
Gust spread are generally below 10 kts, so we have precluded
including gusts in the TAFs. The winds should weaken and become
more southwesterly later this afternoon before shifting out of
the north between 23-00Z at the D10 terminals and a few hours
later at ACT. N flow is expected for the remainder of the TAF
period. VFR will prevail with only a few passing cirrus moving
across the sky.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    28  50  25  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                28  52  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               24  48  23  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              22  49  19  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            24  48  22  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              29  50  27  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             24  50  23  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           28  53  26  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              25  53  23  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       25  50  22  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$