Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
073 FXUS64 KFWD 041045 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A pair of hot afternoons are in store to end the workweek with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees both today and Friday. - The arrival of a cold front will result in rain chances from Friday evening into the weekend, along with much cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s and 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025/ /Through Tonight/ Deep longwave troughing currently prevails across the Central and Eastern CONUS, with multiple shortwaves pivoting through the parent longwave trough. This pattern will cause a surface trough axis or very weak frontal zone to encroach on the Red River from the north today, with low-level wind fields veering westerly ahead of it. The resultant compressional warming during the peak heating hours should be capable of sending highs into the mid 90s to around 102 this afternoon, while dewpoints aggressively mix into the 50s and lower 60s. It`s possible that DFW and/or Waco notch another 100F day for their yearly counts. Fortunately, the lower humidity as well a decent breeze of 10-15 mph will offset the otherwise unwelcome return of near triple-digit temperatures. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 114 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025/ /Friday Onward/ The main change through the extended period with this forecast issuance was an overall reduction in rain chances over the upcoming weekend, with expected coverage trending downwards towards isolated/scattered in comparison to previous forecasts. Thursday afernoon`s surface trough feature will stall and lift back northward on Friday ahead of a secondary stronger mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front. This stronger front will once again be approaching the area during the peak heating hours, and a repeat performance of veering westerly surface winds should occur on Friday afternoon. The difference in comparison to Thursday however, will be the presence of increasingly dense cirrus arriving within a belt of westerly mid/upper-level flow which will limit insolation during a majority of the daytime. This increased cloud cover will largely be the result of a plume of moisture of Pacific origin leftover from hurricane Lorena, and it should be capable of keeping high temperatures a few degrees below Thursday`s readings. By late Friday afternoon, sufficient top-down saturation should have occurred to result in high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms in parts of North Texas, aided by steepening mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km. The arrival of the cold front itself late in the afternoon and evening will aid with ascent to an extent, although parcels lifted from the lower levels will contain significantly less moisture content, perhaps inhibiting the presence of deeper convection during this time period. Shower and thunderstorm activity could continue into Friday night and early Saturday on an isolated basis. The front will certainly make its presence known with the arrival of much cooler and drier post-frontal air as well as increased cloud cover. This will keep high temperatures as much as 15-20 degrees cooler for Saturday afternoon, mainly in the 70s and lower 80s, while dewpoints fall into the 50s and lower 60s. In terms of rain chances, previous model guidance had been more bullish with a trailing post-frontal disturbance within increasingly zonal mid-level flow that was progged to strengthen isentropic ascent. Some ECMWF guidance does still support this solution, but the majority of recent GEFS members are much more eager to amplify the ridge to our west, eliminating the prospects of widespread rain chances over the weekend. We`ll continue to indicate PoPs of 20-30% on Saturday and slightly higher chances on Sunday, but if new ensembles continue this trend of a faster ridge amplification, then PoPs will need to be adjusted downward in subsequent forecasts, accordingly. While initially it appeared likely for many areas to see measurable rainfall this weekend, there is now an increasing chance that some areas miss out on rainfall entirely. Confidence is still high regarding the post-frontal cooler temperatures and presence of cloud cover though, and this will continue to support below normal temperatures into Sunday and even early next week. Through the extended forecast period Tuesday and beyond, a return to Central CONUS upper ridging should result in a return of warm and dry weather, although precisely how warm will depend on the strength of the renewed upper ridge. Highs will likely be back in the 90s by the middle portion of the week with rain chances currently 10% or less during the Day 6-10 period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Winds are light southerly at the TAF sites as of 11z, but will veer west/southwest at 10-15 kts later this morning with a few higher daytime gusts. VFR skies will prevail through the entire period with a few passing cirrus today, but a thicker cirrus canopy will spill in from the west heading into Friday morning. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 77 96 66 79 / 0 0 20 30 30 Waco 99 75 97 71 82 / 0 0 5 20 30 Paris 94 73 92 64 76 / 0 0 10 40 30 Denton 100 75 97 62 78 / 0 0 20 30 30 McKinney 98 75 96 63 78 / 0 0 20 30 30 Dallas 100 77 98 67 81 / 0 0 20 30 30 Terrell 97 74 95 67 80 / 0 0 20 30 30 Corsicana 98 75 96 70 83 / 0 0 5 20 30 Temple 99 74 97 70 84 / 0 0 5 10 30 Mineral Wells 101 74 99 63 78 / 0 0 20 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$