Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
812 FXUS64 KFWD 040625 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 125 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain and drizzle will continue this morning across North and Central Texas before ending from north to south this afternoon. - Dry weather will prevail next week with cool mornings and warm days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Radar imagery and surface observations this morning show widely scattered light rain and drizzle continues across North and Central Texas. This activity is occurring due to lift on the east side of a weak upper level trough over West Texas. As the trough shifts across then east of our area today, rain is expected to increase in coverage this morning per CAMs such as the HRRR/RRFS, then gradually end from north to south this afternoon as upper level flow becomes more northerly and advects in a drier airmass. NBM pops appear too low given the expected coverage of rain this morning, and have bumped precip chances up into the high chance and likely category. Most areas should see less than one quarter inch of rain today, but some localized heavier amounts could occur due to the very saturated airmass in place as shown by the PWAT of 2.11 inches on the 00Z FWD sounding. With rain and cloud cover decreasing this afternoon, high temperatures should be able to warm up into the upper 70s to mid 80s by peak heating. In addition, the clearing skies and falling dewpoints tonight should allow for an Autumn-like night with lows in the upper 50s near the Red River to the mid 60s in our southern counties. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 The rest of the week looks to be mostly dry with warm days and cool nights as North and Central Texas remains in weak northwesterly flow aloft on the north side of an upper ridge centered over northern Mexico. Lows look to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s to near 90 each day, which is slightly above average for this time of year. Global models indicate another upper low will take shape over West Texas from Thursday into the weekend, and this system may be able to pull enough Gulf moisture northward for a few showers late this week. However, this is quite uncertain and most if not all of any precipitation will stay off to our south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 IFR conditions with light rain and drizzle are anticipated at all airports through 16-17Z this morning. Drier air filtering in from the north will improve conditions to MVFR after that time with VFR returning by 20-21Z. North winds up to 10 knots are anticipated through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 66 84 63 / 60 10 0 0 Waco 81 66 83 61 / 60 10 0 0 Paris 84 61 84 56 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 82 63 83 59 / 50 0 0 0 McKinney 82 62 82 57 / 40 10 0 0 Dallas 82 67 84 63 / 60 10 0 0 Terrell 82 64 82 59 / 50 0 0 0 Corsicana 81 65 82 60 / 60 10 0 0 Temple 82 66 84 61 / 60 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 80 61 83 57 / 60 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger