765
FXUS64 KFWD 120945
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
445 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record-breaking heat is expected by midweek, with many areas
  expected to reach 100 degrees on Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, and some severe
  weather is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Clear skies and light winds prevail this morning as our slow
moving upper low to the east will finally start to pull away later
today. This will allow temperatures to steadily climb through mid
week. Highs today will be near normal in the low/mid 80s, but an
abrupt warmup toward record breaking temperatures is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday where highs will climb into the mid 90s and
low 100s.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Tuesday/

The slow moving upper low that has been hanging around the
Arklatex for the last several days will finally get a nudge
eastward today and signal a change that will bring record breaking
heat to the area by mid week. The rest of tonight will be mostly
clear with light north winds and temperatures dropping into the
upper 50s by morning.

With the upper low exiting the region, mid level ridging will
begin to nose into west Texas late this afternoon. Our light
northerly winds will gradually become southeasterly by this
evening. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will climb into
the low/mid 80s this afternoon. As we get into Tuesday though, low
and mid level flow will become more westerly allowing a thermal
ridge to expand eastward. Strong low level warm advection and an
eastward moving dryline will allow temperatures to soar into the
mid and upper 90s by Tuesday afternoon. Cloud free skies will
offer little relief to the early season heat and it`ll be even
warmer as we get into Wednesday with many areas expected to be at
or above 100 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A streak of above normal temperatures will be well underway as a
mid/upper ridge becomes planted over Texas and the Southern Plains
during the midweek period. Temperatures should remain mostly in
the 70s Tuesday night before climbing into the 90s and triple
digits on Wednesday. In addition to the high pressure aloft, a
weak disturbance rounding the top of the ridge will aid in the
eastward surge of the dryline Wednesday afternoon. Sunny skies,
downslope flow and dry air should push temperatures to record
values at both DFW and Waco, where forecast highs are around 100
while record highs are 95 and 96 respectively.

The ridge will shift east Wednesday night and Thursday as an
upper low over the Rockies lifts northeast through the Central
Plains. This pattern shift will force a weak cold front about
halfway into North Texas on Thursday, while shoving the dryline
east again ahead of the front. Southwest winds and more downslope
flow will push temperatures well into the 90s south of the front,
while mid and upper 80s are still expected on the north side of
the boundary. Despite the presence of the front and dryline, a
deep elevated mixed layer around 700mb will likely preclude
thunderstorm development.

A similar set-up will be in place on Friday, though the front
will have lifted north to near the Red River. In addition, a
trailing shortwave moving east across Texas may provide the added
lift necessary in eroding the cap. Isolated thunderstorms will be
the likely result Friday afternoon and evening, with development
being along and east of the dryline and along/south of the surface
front. The latest guidance pushes the dryline to near the I-35
corridor Friday afternoon, which is where convective initiation
would likely occur. Storm coverage may be low, but any storm which
forms will have a good chance of becoming severe based on the
highly sheared and unstable environment in place. Storms would
spread east of I-35 in the evening, eventually dissipating Friday
night.

The dryline will again be the focus for convective development
Saturday afternoon and evening as a second disturbance passes
overhead, with any storm which develops potentially becoming
severe. A lull in thunderstorm development may then occur Sunday
and next Monday, followed by more widespread showers and storms
next Monday night or the following Tuesday as a larger scale
trough and cold front sweep through the Southern Plains.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light north winds this
morning becoming southeasterly later this evening. No significant
aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  64  94  70 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                83  61  98  72 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               79  59  86  67  94 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              82  59  93  65  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            81  60  90  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              83  64  95  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             81  61  91  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           83  64  93  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              86  61  99  71 104 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       85  59  98  66 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$