623
FXUS64 KFWD 091901
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
201 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop in river valleys and sheltered areas
  overnight into Monday morning.

- An elevated threat for grass fires returns each afternoon
  Tuesday through Friday.

- There are 20-30% chances for thunderstorms along and east of
  I-35 on Wednesday and Friday this week. A couple strong to
  severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025/
/Through Monday/

Our weekend storm system is making its eastward departure, with
trailing wrap-around moisture having resulted in a cloudy and
drizzly morning across much of the area. The back edge of this
stratus deck is beginning to rapidly erode and scatter, and steady
clearing from northwest to southeast will occur the rest of this
afternoon. Insolation will allow our western zones to climb into
the lower 60s, while our eastern areas socked in with cloud cover
through peak heating will struggle to even reach 50 degrees.

As northwest winds lessen this evening in response to a weakening
pressure gradient, clearing skies will allow for efficient
radiational cooling and perhaps the development of patchy fog in
the river valleys and outlying sheltered areas, especially near
and east of I-35. Lows will range form the lower 30s to around 40
degrees with most areas forecast to remain above freezing.
However, some patchy frost is a possibility, and those that got an
early jump on spring planting may wish to protect any sensitive
vegetation. Following a quick dissipation of patchy fog heading
into the daytime Monday, a return to southwesterly winds and
building heights aloft will result in a much warmer afternoon with
the entire CWA climbing into the upper 60s and 70s beneath sunny
skies.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

Breezy south-southwest flow and mostly sunny skies beneath
mid/upper ridging will send temperatures into the 70s and low 80s
Tuesday afternoon. A prolonged period of at least elevated fire
weather concerns will begin Tuesday afternoon as low humidity and
breezy winds materialize through the end of the week along and
west of the I-35 corridor.

By the latter half of the week, the upper-level pattern will
become more progressive with a couple shortwave troughs bringing
thunderstorm chances to parts of North and Central Texas. The
first system, a quick-moving, compact shortwave trough, will
shift over the Southern Plains Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
convection may develop along and ahead of its eastward-
progressing Pacific front Wednesday afternoon and evening near and east
of I-35. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will promote a corridor
of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Sufficient instability coupled with
strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for a couple strong
to severe thunderstorms. The ultimate coverage and intensity of
this activity will depend upon the degree of warm/moist advection
over the region ahead of the Pacific front passage, but confidence
is increasing in at least a marginal threat for large hail and
damaging winds late Wednesday. Behind the dryline, rapidly
dropping relative humidity and westerly winds gusting to 30mph at
times will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions.

Brief ridging aloft behind the Wednesday system will keep the
radarscope clear Thursday with temperatures approaching 90 degrees
Thursday afternoon over portions of the eastern Hill Country. By
Friday, a deeper trough is forecast to shift over Kansas/Oklahoma
initiating strong surface cyclogenesis over the Plains leading to
very windy conditions Friday. South-southwest winds at 15-25 mph
will increase to 25-35 mph and shift out of the west behind a
Pacific front/dryline feature Friday afternoon. Confidence is
increasing in occasional 45+ mph wind gusts. Strong winds, RH
below 20%, and increasingly cured, dry fuels will promote a
critical fire weather threat, especially south of I-20 and west of
I-35 in a region that has missed out on the bulk of the rainfall
during the past week and will avoid future rainfall over the next
several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over
parts of East Texas late Friday shifting toward southeast Texas as
this system`s cold front finally pushes through the region early
Saturday. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s will return for the
weekend behind this system with persistent dry and breezy
conditions keeping an elevated fire weather threat over parts of
western North and Central Texas.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025/
/18z TAFs/

An improvement trend to low stratus/mist is underway as of midday
with cig heights now at or above 1 kft. Steady lifting/scattering
will continue this afternoon with cigs climbing above 2 kft in the
next two hours before becoming VFR between 21-23z. Northwest
winds will lessen in speed by this evening, with a very light WNW
wind prevailing overnight. Towards daybreak, there is about a 20%
chance for patchy fog to reduce visibility into the 3-5SM range at
any of the airports. For now, this potential is too low to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs, but a brief Tempo group may need to
be introduced depending on guidance trends through tonight. Winds
will return to southwesterly at 5-10 kts heading into Monday with
a mostly clear sky.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  74  48  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                36  74  45  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               36  69  44  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  74  43  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            36  71  45  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              39  73  48  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             36  70  43  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           39  71  46  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              36  75  43  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       36  76  43  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$