560
FXUS64 KFWD 070927
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Thunderstorm chances return today, become more widespread on
   Friday, and then taper off this weekend.

-  A few strong or severe thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall
   are possible from this afternoon through early Saturday,
   particularly west of the I-35 corridor.

-  Rainfall totals will average 1-3 through Saturday. There is a
   10% chance that rainfall totals exceed 4 in parts of western
   North Texas, increasing the potential for flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1218 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024/
/Through Thursday Night/

A potent Four Corners upper low will contribute to a mostly cloudy
and dreary Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
bank of fog and low stratus is working its way westward into the
forecast area early this morning within easterly low-level flow,
and this should bring overcast skies and pockets of drizzle to
much of the CWA to begin the day. It`s still uncertain if this
will result in pockets of dense fog or just very low stratus a
couple hundred feet above the ground. Observational trends will
be monitored in case a Dense Fog Advisory becomes necessary for
parts of East or North Texas during the next few hours.

Meanwhile, southerly flow and warm advection in the 850-700mb
layer will lead to the development of elevated instability as the
inversion and layers just above begin to saturate. This should
result in scattered elevated convection roughly along and west of
the I-35 corridor by mid/late morning, with MUCAPE sufficient for
lightning and perhaps some small hail. By late afternoon or
evening, the bulk of this activity should become concentrated
along our western border and eventually west of the forecast area
in closer proximity to the dynamic ascent from the upper low. A
threat for a few strong storms will continue for our western
counties during this time frame with primarily a sub-severe hail
threat. Convection should organize into a more linear swath
overnight, pushing back eastward into the forecast area Friday
morning as addressed in the long term forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

The powerful storm system to our west will be at its closest
proximity on Friday when it swings through the Texas Panhandle.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread deeper into North Texas
with widespread showers and storms impacting the region. At
daybreak Friday morning, warm advection showers may be streaming
northward as more robust convection approaches from the west.
The contribution of unseasonably rich boundary layer moisture may
be partially offset by rain-cooled air, particularly if the
surface layer doesn`t get a chance to recharge during the daylight
hours. Nonetheless, lift and steadily steepening lapse rates aloft
may still be sufficient for updrafts supportive of hail (with
accompanying downburst winds) even if boundary layer parcels are
inadequate.

There may be a break between Friday morning`s initial activity
and renewed development along an advancing front. This would
enhance the chances for strong/severe cells within a larger but
less coherent quasi-linear complex. However, the density of
competing updrafts may work against this, keeping the severe
potential marginal at best. In any event, heavy rainfall may pose
a flooding threat with remarkable precipitation efficiency.
Precipitable water values may approach 2 inches on Friday,
unprecedented for this late in the calendar year. Despite rather
progressive storm motion, the likelihood of multiple cells
impacting individual locations, some of which received significant
rainfall in the past week, flooding concerns could arise. Event
totals may reach/exceed 3 to 4 inches in areas that are both west
of I-35 and north of I-20. As we further assess the most likely
area to be impacted, a Flood Watch may be needed with subsequent
forecast packages.

As the surface boundary and its accompanying convective complex
continue pushing east Friday night, the focus will shift into East
Texas. With the upper low ejecting toward the Missouri Valley this
weekend, the front will gradually lose its momentum. This will
keep the mT air mass within our eastern zones, maintaining rain
chances. But for the bulk of North and Central Texas, the frontal
passage will usher in cooler, drier, and sunnier weather for
Saturday and Sunday. A warming trend may push temperatures into
the 80s on Tuesday before the next front and rain chances arrive
during the middle of next week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1218 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Cigs at 5-6 kft are spreading into the TAF sites from the south
as of 06z, while a low stratus deck at 500-1000 ft is
simultaneously advancing westward from East Texas towards D10.
This bank of low clouds should result in at least a few hours of
IFR conditions (perhaps both cig and vsby) and perhaps periodic
mist/drizzle through mid morning. Warm advection will also be
strengthening during this time period, and should lead to
scattered precip more convective in nature by midday. A brief
period of VCTS has been introduced, as elevated instability should
become sufficient to allow nearby cells to produce occasional
lightning strikes. The bulk of the precipitation should become
confined to areas west of D10 by late afternoon, with a lull in
rain chances this evening. A return to borderline MVFR/IFR cigs is
expected overnight into Friday morning. Otherwise, an ENE wind at
5-10 kts will prevail through most of the period.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  65  71  56  69 /  30  40  80  80  20
Waco                74  66  76  55  71 /  60  40  90  80  20
Paris               74  59  68  58  70 /   5  20  60  90  40
Denton              73  62  70  51  70 /  30  40  80  80  20
McKinney            74  61  71  55  71 /  20  30  80  80  20
Dallas              74  63  73  55  71 /  30  30  80  80  20
Terrell             74  63  73  57  71 /  20  30  70  90  30
Corsicana           76  66  76  60  72 /  40  30  70  80  30
Temple              75  65  76  55  73 /  60  40  90  70  20
Mineral Wells       69  62  70  49  71 /  60  70  90  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$