854
FXUS64 KFWD 150927
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected through Saturday.

- A strong weather system will bring our next chance of showers
  and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Much cooler conditions are expected the latter half of next
  week, following Monday`s cold front and a second cold front
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/
/Through Saturday Night/

An axis of high pressure is slowly migrating eastward across
Texas, continuing the streak of tranquil weather conditions. With
high pressure in control, cool early morning temperatures are once
again expected today with upper 30s to lower 40s by sunrise. The
relatively dry conditions will allow for temperatures to warm
into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon with light southerly
winds.

As the high pressure axis shifts east, low-level winds will
gradually increase out of the south later today. This will help
draw higher moisture content into our region this evening. With
higher moisture in place, a few overnight clouds are expected,
especially west of I-35. The increased cloud cover should keep
early Saturday morning temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The warming trend will continue into Saturday with North Texas
highs in the lower to mid 70s with a few upper 70s across Central
Texas. A tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to an
increase in wind speeds by Saturday afternoon. Sustained winds of
10-15 mph can be expected with gusts closer to 20 mph.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

After a few days of quiet weather across North and Central Texas,
rapid weather changes will commence on Sunday as a potent West
Coast trough inches closer to our region. As the trough marches
eastward, a cut-off low will develop and dive into the Sonora
Desert by Sunday afternoon. With a potent low to our west on
Sunday, a rapid poleward mass response will ensue. The initial
visual signs of increasing moisture will be the arrival of
widespread cloud cover Sunday morning. Soon after the clouds
arrive, scattered showers will develop with a few rumbles of
thunder by late Sunday afternoon. The severe weather threat Sunday
afternoon and evening will remain low given minimal instability
and effective shear below 20 knots.

As we head into Sunday night, the threat for both severe weather
and flash flooding does increase as the area of low pressure and
an attendant cold front continues to inch closer to North and
Central Texas. With precipitable water values between 1.5" to 1.8"
(well above climatological normal), any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing heavy rain. A prolonged period of heavy rain
over a concentrated area will quickly increase the risk for flash
flooding.

A surface low is expected to develop Sunday night along the
leading edge of the aforementioned Pacific cold front. Although
the surface low will remain to our west/northwest, wind speeds
ahead of the surface low quickly increase to between 20-25 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph. The strengthening low-level wind field
coupled with steepening mid-level lapse will likely lead to quick
thunderstorm development across the Trans-Pecos region. The
current expectation is for thunderstorms to quickly become
organized into a line of storms and move eastward into North and
Central Texas.

The amount of destabilization that will take place ahead of the
line of storms remains uncertain as models depict a sharp decline
in instability from North Texas to Central Texas. Across Central
Texas, instability is most likely to range between 500-800 J/kg,
however, North Texas may only see 200-500 J/kg. The ingredient
that will be the most prominent will be the deep-layer shear
which will likely range between 50-60 knots. Should instability be
slightly higher than expected, the severe weather threat will
quickly increase. Given the aforementioned ingredients, North and
Central Texas residents should be prepared for strong to severe
thunderstorm capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Although there will be a threat for hail, the potential for large
hail will be limited given a lack of strong instability. The
tornado threat will be attributed to the highly sheared 0-3 km
layer that will favor quick QLCS spin-up tornadoes along any
northwest to southeast oriented line segment.

The threat for severe weather will continue moving eastward as
the sun rises across North and Central Texas. The latest guidance
places the cold front atop the I-35 corridor late Monday morning
and exiting our easternmost counties by mid-afternoon. Behind the
front, much drier air will filter in ending rain chances from west
to east.

The surface low that originated in West Texas and moved to the
northeast will send a much stronger cold front into our region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will lead to below-normal
temperatures through the end of the week. Highs will be in the
50s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Although widespread
freezing temperatures aren`t expected behind this strong cold
front, low-lying areas and valleys could briefly dip into
freezing territory. Additionally, some frost cannot be ruled out
west of the I-35 corridor Thursday or Friday morning where lows
will be in the 34-36 degree range with light winds in place. Now
might be a good time to look for the frost blankets in case the
potential for freezing temperatures or frost increases as we get
closer to the latter half of next week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1227 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/
/06Z TAFS/

No significant weather is expected across any North or Central
Texas TAF sites through this TAF period. Clear skies and light
south/southeasterly winds will persist through this evening.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  51  72  62  73 /   0   0   0   5  50
Waco                75  46  74  61  76 /   0   0   0  10  60
Paris               70  44  71  57  73 /   0   0   0   0  30
Denton              72  46  73  58  74 /   0   0   0   0  50
McKinney            71  46  72  58  74 /   0   0   0   5  50
Dallas              73  49  74  61  74 /   0   0   0   5  50
Terrell             72  46  73  60  76 /   0   0   0   5  50
Corsicana           73  48  75  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  50
Temple              75  47  78  61  78 /   0   0   0  10  60
Mineral Wells       74  47  76  57  75 /   0   0   0   0  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$