144
FXUS64 KFWD 281656
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1056 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer weather will prevail into early next week.

- An initial round of rain and a few storms will end the weekend
  Sunday into Sunday night. A more widespread event is expected
  Monday night into Tuesday during which severe storms may occur.

- There is increasing confidence in elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions west of I-35 on Tuesday behind the exiting
  storm system.

- Cooler temperatures will return during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday/

Dry zonal flow aloft and the return of southwesterly surface winds
will result in a sunny and warm afternoon across North and
Central Texas. Highs today should have no problem reaching the 70s
and we would not be surprised to see a few lower 80s across the
western zones. The warm temperatures and low dewpoints will drop
afternoon relative humidity into the teens and 20s for most
locations. These warm and dry conditions will make fine fuels such
as cured grass more receptive fire starts, but wind speeds will
not be strong enough for significant fire growth.

Tonight will be mostly clear and calm with lows in the 40s to
around 50.

A weak cold front will move southward across the region on
Saturday. Limited moisture and very weak cold air advection will
keep the frontal passage almost unnoticeable with the exception
of a north/northeast wind shift. Full sun will still allow
temperatures to warm into the 70s Saturday afternoon.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025/
/Sunday and Beyond/

South flow and moisture return will be on the increase Sunday
ahead of a compact shortwave expected to enter the Southern Plains
Sunday evening. There are still some placement discrepancies in
the track of this system with the GFS offering a more northerly
track across Kansas (lower rain chances for North and Central TX)
and the Euro suggesting a more southerly track across Central
Oklahoma (greater rain chances for North and Central Texas). Our
current forecast keeps the greatest rain chances (40-50%) Sunday
evening into early Monday morning generally along/north of the
I-20 corridor. Limited instability will keep the severe threat
near zero with MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg suggesting that
occasional embedded lightning will be the main hazard during this
time frame. This system`s dryline/Pacific front will not clear our
forecast area, thus gusty south flow will quickly draw low to mid
60s dewpoints over much of North and Central Texas Monday into
early Tuesday ahead of our next, more potent storm system.

Very windy conditions are expected Tuesday as an impressive upper
trough quickly exits the Desert Southwest and rapidly transits
over the Southern Plains. A plume of sufficient SBCAPE will
develop just ahead of this system`s dryline/Pacific front with
thunderstorms developing along this eastward-progressing boundary
in western North and Central Texas late Monday night.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity during the
day Tuesday as they shift east over our forecast area. Very strong
deep-layer shear and increasing instability will support a threat
for severe weather for a few hours generally along/east of I-35
late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

Note that non-thunderstorm winds ahead of and behind the Pacific
front will increase to 20-30 mph gusting to 40 mph at times during
the day Tuesday. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for
Tuesday. Minimum RH will quickly plummet into the 10-20% range
west of I-35 by Tuesday afternoon as surface dewpoints in the
teens and 20s surge in from the west and temperatures rise into
the mid 70s. The ultimate fire threat will be conditional on the
amount of wetting rainfall observed both Sunday night and Tuesday
morning, but the overall pattern will support a large area of
drying, higher fine-fuel loads, and potentially critical fire
weather conditions west of I-35 Tuesday. We will monitor this
potential closely over the coming days.

A slight cooldown is expected behind the front with highs in the
60s region-wide Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

No significant aviation weather concerns are expected across North
and Central Texas through Saturday with a mostly clear sky and no
visibility restrictions.

A southwest wind will prevail this afternoon and tonight at
speeds between 6 and 11 knots along with occasional afternoon
gusts near 20 knots. A weak cold front will move across the region
overnight/Saturday morning with a north wind shift at the
Metroplex TAF sites around sunrise and Waco by 15Z. The wind will
gradually veer through the day, becoming easterly in the afternoon.
Wind speeds Saturday will be generally at or below 12 knots.

79

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  48  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                73  48  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               73  45  71  43  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              75  44  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            73  45  73  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              75  50  76  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             72  46  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           73  49  76  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  48  79  48  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       76  45  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$