Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
238 FXUS64 KFWD 202313 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will continue through Monday with the arrival of a weak cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds are possible. - Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail through the middle portion of the workweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms extending from northeast to southwest across the area may persist for a few more hours due to ongoing outflow mergers, followed by a weakening trend later this evening as instability wanes. Areas from Arlington southwest down to Hamilton have received beneficial rainfall today, along with the Sherman/Denison area. A few storms became severe with damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and heavy rain also accompanied several of these storms, and POPs have been updated to capture current RADAR trends. A weak cold front will provide additional chances for showers and storms on Monday, leaving some hope for those who missed out this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 The convective setup across North and Central Texas continues to evolve this early afternoon as a cold front remains well removed from our area but a shortwave continues to move towards North and Central Texas. Additionally, a sharp moisture gradient is now positioned just west of the I-35 corridor with surface dew points sharply falling as you progress west. This feature is providing a focus for thunderstorm initiation as temperatures continue to warm this afternoon. The shortwave responsible for increasing large-scale ascent is just now beginning to approach from the west. The overlap of this forcing with the moisture gradient and strongly unstable airmass is favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms. Although overall deep-layer shear remains modest, with the available instability in place, multi-cell to loosely organized clusters will be the dominant convective mode this afternoon. Decently strong surface dew point depressions will increase the risk for strong to damaging winds with any vigorous convection. A few instances of hail cannot be ruled out, with expected maximum hail size closer to 1". The overall evolution of this afternoon`s convection is somewhat uncertain. Regardless of the convective development this afternoon, large scale forcing will remain atop the region through the night. If the storms this afternoon become cold-pool dominant, sufficient subsidence may be in place to reduce tonight`s rain chances. However, if storms remain more isolated/scattered in nature, another round of showers/storms may move in from Oklahoma late tonight into early Monday morning. Given the relative minimum in instability overnight, this activity is not expected to be severe, however, gusty winds and lightning will be possible. The cold front itself will finally begin making more meaningful southward progress late tonight into Monday. By Monday, the front and any remnant outflow boundaries should provide more defined focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Exactly where these boundaries settle will dictate the corridor of highest rain chances. At this time, the highest probability of rain tomorrow will be along and south of the I-20 corridor. Areas along and south of the front will experience the most unstable air and will likely see the highest coverage in precipitation. Storm threats will once again include lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Convection should gradually diminish Monday evening as instability wanes, through isolated showers and storm may linger near the stalled frontal zone across Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 A reinforcing cold front will arrive early Tuesday, helping to keep temperatures in the lower to mid 90s through much of next week. The hottest weather will continue to be across the Brazos Valley, where upper 90s are expected. A few additional showers and storms will be possible along the boundary in Central Texas, however, coverage will likely at or below 20%. Mid-level ridging will gradually rebuild during the middle and latter portions of the week, resulting in decreasing rain chances and a slight increase in afternoon temperatures. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s across North Texas with upper 90s in Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing associated with a shortwave sweeping through the Southern Plains and a cold front stretching from OK to northwest TX. Overall coverage remains fairly low, however, due to weak flow aloft and the lingering presence of 590 decameter heights at 500mb. That being said, there appears to still be enough instability and outflow mergers to warrant VCTS in the DFW Metroplex TAFs, along with a TEMPO -TSRA for a few hours this evening. It looks at this time VCSH will suffice at KACT where activity seems to already be on a downward trend. Activity will diminish after 03Z with the loss of instability. Thunderstorms overnight associated with a potential convective complex over OK should remain east of all TAF sites. Overall quiet weather is expected the rest of tonight into Monday morning. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon as the cold front eases south through the area, and will go ahead and upgrade the VCSH to VCTS starting 21/21Z. Light north winds and VFR are then expected Monday evening behind the front. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 93 75 93 / 40 30 10 10 Waco 75 95 74 96 / 30 30 10 20 Paris 73 90 72 93 / 40 30 10 10 Denton 71 93 71 92 / 50 30 10 20 McKinney 72 93 71 93 / 50 30 10 10 Dallas 77 94 76 94 / 40 30 10 10 Terrell 74 94 73 95 / 30 30 10 10 Corsicana 75 94 74 96 / 20 40 10 10 Temple 74 94 73 96 / 30 20 10 20 Mineral Wells 68 94 68 91 / 30 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...30