Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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023 FXUS64 KFWD 061048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and dry weather will continue. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Light winds, clear skies and dry air has led to another morning of varying temperatures across the region. Eastland was unsurprisingly the cool spot at 55 while DFW and Ft Worth Alliance were both 73 during the past hour. Another warm one is in store today with highs mostly in the lower 90s. A weak front tonight will bring a minor temperature drop, but readings will remain well above normal through Monday. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ Water vapor satellite imagery currently indicates an impressive upper low moving east from Manitoba into Ontario, which is generating upper troughing across the Midwest and Great lakes region. The attendant surface low is almost completely co-located with the upper low. A cold front extending south/southwest from the surface low (currently stretching from near St Louis to Amarillo) will push slowly southward through North and Central Texas Sunday night and Monday. The front itself will be barely noticeable as northeast winds will already be in place ahead of the boundary. A slight backing of the winds will occur, however, along with a very slight drop in temperature. Monday`s highs will likely end up 2 to 4 degrees below Sunday`s, but temperatures will still remain above normal for October. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024/ /Monday Night through Next Weekend/ High pressure will prevail for the first part of the upcoming work week, with dry air filtering into the region through Tuesday in the wake of this evening`s cold front. Temperatures will remain above normal but in the mid 80s to low 90s instead of the mid 90s. A strong ridge will build to our west and establish northwest flow aloft for most of the week. Weak shortwave troughs will approach the area late in the week and next weekend, but the chance that any of these produce measurable precip is less than 10%. Overall, it looks like we`ll remain in a generally quiet weather pattern for the next 7-10 days. A downside to this stretch of warm and dry weather is that the ongoing drought isn`t going to get any better. Some areas along the Red River (mainly west of our forecast area) are already in D3 or extreme drought, and I would expect this area to expand with future drought monitor updates. As a result, we`ll have to monitor the fire weather threat as vegetation continues to dry. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Light and variable to light southeast winds will shift to the northeast at 6 to 10 kt by midday ahead of a weak cold front. The front will back winds to a more northerly direction this evening, but speeds will remain fairly light tonight (4-8 kt). Conditions will otherwise remain VFR through Monday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 69 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 66 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 91 64 86 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 92 62 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 92 64 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 93 69 90 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 92 64 90 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 66 92 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 64 92 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 61 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$