Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
731 FXUS64 KFWD 041154 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 654 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A thunderstorm complex is moving across Central Texas at this time. The main threat continues to be strong to damaging winds, however, there will a low potential for hail to occur. - Seasonably hot and mostly dry weather resumes by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The line of severe thunderstorms has moved south of the I-20 corridor and continues moving towards Central and East Texas. Instability ahead of the line ranges from 1200-1500 J/Kg with a weak low level jet in place. This should be enough to propagate the complex through the rest of our area with a threat for strong to damaging winds. Additionally, an axis of instability and moisture extends towards out northwestern-most counties, leading to additional isolated strong thunderstorms. The expectation is for these storms to move south/southeast through the morning and dissipating by the early afternoon. By the mid-afternoon hours, most of the thunderstorm activity will be well south of our region, leaving behind precipitation-free conditions. The remnant cloud cover today will help keep temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ A line of storms is now over southwestern Oklahoma and far NW North Texas, continuing to move to the southeast. Wind gusts along the leading edge of the line have ranged between 30-40 mph with frequent lightning continuing. As the complex moves into North Texas, the main threat will be strong wind gusts along the leading edge of the line. With ample amounts of instability still in place, if a more robust thunderstorm develops, a few instances of damaging wind gusts or large hail cannot be ruled out. The line of storms will propagate to the southeast through the early morning hours with most of the storms just south of the I-20 corridor by sunrise. Given the fast moving nature of this complex, most of thunderstorm activity will be south of our region by noon. Having said that, some of the guidance does keep an axis of instability and ascent west of I-35 through the morning and early afternoon. A few additional storms cannot be ruled out within this axis with a few strong storms possible. Small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the main concerns. As the shortwave responsible for the incoming thunderstorm complex moves south, rain chances will come to an end this evening. Given this morning`s rain and lingering cloud cover, today`s highs are likely to remain in the 80s to lower 90s. Tonight, expect temperatures to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout the region with mostly clear skies. No precipitation is expected with winds out of the east/southeast below 10 kts. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 131 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025/ /Tuesday Onward/ With subsidence increasing across the region, no widespread precipitation is expected on Tuesday. A few isolated showers and storms may develop across the Brazos Valley in the afternoon, however, coverage will remain below 20%. Afternoon temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies in place. By Wednesday, increasing 500mb heights throughout the Southern Plains will shunt precipitation east of our area. In turn, this will lead to a warming trend as highs climb into the upper 90s starting Wednesday. By Friday, widespread triple digits will return across North Texas with heat index values as high as 108 in some locations. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ The greatest impact at this time is occurring at KACT as a line of storms moves overhead. This is expected to continue through 13z with improvement after 14z. For North Texas, the bulk of the precipitation has shifted away from the TAFs. A few lingering showers or isolated storms may develop INVOF the airports, however, direct impacts over the terminal are less probable. Winds are mostly out of the west/southwest at this time, generally below 10 kts. Expect minimal wind direction/speed changes through the rest of the TAF cycle. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this morning across parts Central Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 75 93 77 96 / 50 0 5 0 0 Waco 89 73 92 74 94 / 60 10 10 0 0 Paris 89 71 93 71 96 / 20 5 0 0 0 Denton 89 71 94 73 97 / 40 0 5 0 0 McKinney 89 71 93 73 96 / 40 0 5 0 0 Dallas 90 75 94 76 97 / 50 5 5 0 0 Terrell 89 71 94 73 96 / 40 5 5 0 0 Corsicana 90 73 96 75 97 / 50 10 10 0 0 Temple 91 73 94 73 96 / 40 10 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 92 71 96 72 99 / 40 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$